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Sunderland v Arsenal Prediction & Match Markets

Sat 12 Sept, 19:00 · Gameweek 4 · Sunderland (home)

Predicted score

0–1

15% likely

Expected goals
0.83 – 1.55
Total 2.38
SUN win
20%
Draw 26%
ARS win
54%
BTTS 44%
Lineup confidence
75%
20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

On

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

No rated spread bets for this fixture.

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Sunderland

5-4-1 · High confidence
  1. 1RoefsGKP
  2. 2BallardDEF
  3. 3HumeDEF
  4. 4AldereteDEF
  5. 5ReinildoDEF
  6. 6MeunierDEF
  7. 7E.Le FéeMID
  8. 8XhakaMID
  9. 9SadikiMID
  10. 10AnguloMID
  11. 11BrobbeyFWD

Bench: Mukiele, O'Nien, Talbi, Diarra

Out: Adingra, Methalie

Full Sunderland predicted XI →

Arsenal

4-5-1 · High confidence
  1. 1RayaGKP
  2. 2GabrielDEF
  3. 3CalafioriDEF
  4. 4WhiteDEF
  5. 5MosqueraDEF
  6. 6RiceMID
  7. 7Lewis-SkellyMID
  8. 8SakaMID
  9. 9TzolisMID
  10. 10ZubimendiMID
  11. 11HavertzFWD

Bench: Konsa, Ødegaard, Gyökeres, Eze

Doubts: Bruno G.

Out: Saliba, J.Timber

Full Arsenal predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

MarketSellBuyModelMost likelyFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
Total match goals——2.382.00
1.0
5.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match shots——19.118.0
12.0
26.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match shots on target——6.15.0
3.0
10.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match corners——7.87.0
4.0
12.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match cards——3.583.00
1.0
6.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Total match fouls——21.020.0
13.0
29.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)——-0.72-1.00
-3.0
1.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)——-2.7-3.0
-9.0
3.0
——73%0NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)——-1.0-1.0
-4.0
2.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)——-1.4-1.0
-5.0
2.0
——73%0NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)——0.720.00
-2.0
3.0
——73%0NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

MarketSelectionPriceImpliedModelFair oddsEVConfOppSignal
Match outcome (model price)SUN win——20%4.98—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Draw——26%3.88—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)ARS win——54%1.85—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Both teams to score——44%2.28—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)SUN -1 goal handicap——6%16.50—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)ARS +1 goal handicap——94%1.06—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)SUN draw no bet——27%3.69—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)SUN double chance——46%2.18—73%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)ARS double chance——80%1.25—73%0NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

PlayerMarketSellBuyModelFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
RayaARSPlayer Performance——6.7
4.2
9.1
—0%76%0NO BET
GabrielARSPlayer Performance——17.1
11.1
24.0
—0%69%0NO BET
Lewis-SkellyARSPlayer Performance——17.4
11.7
24.2
—0%62%0NO BET
CalafioriARSPlayer Performance——14.6
7.9
22.6
—0%60%0NO BET
HincapieARSPlayer Performance——13.2
7.3
20.1
—0%59%0NO BET
WhiteARSPlayer Performance——17.7
11.4
25.3
—0%61%0NO BET
MosqueraARSPlayer Performance——15.8
9.7
22.9
—0%64%0NO BET
SakaARSPlayer Performance——14.2
6.1
24.9
—0%61%0NO BET
RiceARSPlayer Performance——15.0
8.8
22.6
—0%77%0NO BET
EzeARSPlayer Performance——15.4
7.7
24.7
—0%58%0NO BET
ØdegaardARSPlayer Performance——14.9
8.0
24.1
—0%58%0NO BET
MaduekeARSPlayer Performance——12.9
6.2
21.1
—0%58%0NO BET
MerinoARSPlayer Performance——15.6
7.3
25.9
—0%61%0NO BET
MartinelliARSPlayer Performance——11.2
4.4
19.7
—0%60%0NO BET
ZubimendiARSPlayer Performance——17.1
10.2
25.0
—0%66%0NO BET
GyökeresARSPlayer Performance——8.3
1.6
17.4
—0%63%0NO BET
HavertzARSPlayer Performance——14.3
6.2
24.7
—0%61%0NO BET
KonsaARSPlayer Performance——15.4
9.6
21.7
—0%73%0NO BET
Bruno G.ARSPlayer Performance——19.4
11.0
29.2
—0%61%0NO BET
RoefsSUNPlayer Performance——5.3
3.0
7.6
—0%76%0NO BET
BallardSUNPlayer Performance——10.2
4.7
16.6
—0%65%0NO BET
MukieleSUNPlayer Performance——10.6
4.5
17.7
—0%63%0NO BET
HumeSUNPlayer Performance——7.5
2.6
13.6
—0%77%0NO BET
AldereteSUNPlayer Performance——8.7
3.6
14.7
—0%66%0NO BET
ReinildoSUNPlayer Performance——11.5
5.5
18.3
—0%64%0NO BET
O'NienSUNPlayer Performance——7.1
2.5
12.7
—0%56%0NO BET
MeunierSUNPlayer Performance——14.1
8.0
21.4
—0%45%0NO BET
E.Le FéeSUNPlayer Performance——9.4
3.9
16.1
—0%76%0NO BET
DiarraSUNPlayer Performance——7.8
2.5
14.8
—0%55%0NO BET
XhakaSUNPlayer Performance——15.1
8.9
22.6
—0%68%0NO BET
SadikiSUNPlayer Performance——10.4
5.0
17.0
—0%70%0NO BET
MundleSUNPlayer Performance——8.6
3.1
15.5
—0%54%0NO BET
RiggSUNPlayer Performance——9.0
3.5
15.8
—0%55%0NO BET
TalbiSUNPlayer Performance——5.6
1.6
11.3
—0%57%0NO BET
AnguloSUNPlayer Performance——8.1
2.2
16.1
—0%55%0NO BET
BrobbeySUNPlayer Performance——3.6
-0.7
10.4
—0%57%0NO BET
IsidorSUNPlayer Performance——5.6
-0.0
13.4
—0%56%0NO BET
AhokaSUNPlayer Performance——12.8
6.4
20.6
—0%46%0NO BET
MeunierSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%45%0NO BET
BallardSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%65%0NO BET
AldereteSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%66%0NO BET
XhakaSUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%68%0NO BET
AhokaSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%46%0NO BET
MundleSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%54%0NO BET
IsidorSUNShots on Target——0.4
0.0
1.3
—0%56%0NO BET
RoefsSUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%76%0NO BET
ReinildoSUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%64%0NO BET
E.Le FéeSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%76%0NO BET
TalbiSUNShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.9
—0%57%0NO BET
MukieleSUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%63%0NO BET
AnguloSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%55%0NO BET
HumeSUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%77%0NO BET
SadikiSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.4
—0%70%0NO BET
BrobbeySUNShots on Target——0.2
0.0
1.0
—0%57%0NO BET
RiggSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%55%0NO BET
O'NienSUNShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%56%0NO BET
DiarraSUNShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.7
—0%55%0NO BET
GabrielARSShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.9
—0%69%0NO BET
Lewis-SkellyARSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%62%0NO BET
HincapieARSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.3
—0%59%0NO BET
SakaARSShots on Target——0.6
0.0
1.7
—0%61%0NO BET
ØdegaardARSShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%58%0NO BET
GyökeresARSShots on Target——0.6
0.0
1.7
—0%63%0NO BET
RayaARSShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.0
—0%76%0NO BET
MaduekeARSShots on Target——0.4
0.0
1.5
—0%58%0NO BET
ZubimendiARSShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%66%0NO BET
HavertzARSShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.6
—0%61%0NO BET
RiceARSShots on Target——0.2
0.0
0.8
—0%77%0NO BET
CalafioriARSShots on Target——0.3
0.0
1.2
—0%60%0NO BET
WhiteARSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.5
—0%61%0NO BET
MerinoARSShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.6
—0%61%0NO BET
MosqueraARSShots on Target——0.1
0.0
0.6
—0%64%0NO BET
EzeARSShots on Target——0.6
0.0
1.8
—0%58%0NO BET
MartinelliARSShots on Target——0.7
0.0
2.0
—0%60%0NO BET
KonsaARSShots on Target——0.0
0.0
0.2
—0%73%0NO BET
Bruno G.ARSShots on Target——0.5
0.0
1.6
—0%61%0NO BET

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–114.8%
  • 1–111.6%
  • 0–210.8%

Team news & model notes

Sunderland

Masuaku (u), Adingra (i), Seelt (u)

Arsenal

J.Timber (i), Saliba (i), Nelson (u)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:26:20 · no live prices captured

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