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Sunderland v Fulham Prediction & Match Markets

Sun 30 Aug, 13:00 · Gameweek 2 · Sunderland (home)

Predicted score

1–0

12% likely

Expected goals
1.60 – 1.03
Total 2.63
SUN win
50%
Draw 25%
FUL win
24%
BTTS 50%
Lineup confidence
73%
20,000 simulations

Minimum odds 1.50

Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.

On

Three best fixed-odds bets

Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated

#1 · Player
100

Alex Iwobi - 60+

Iwobi · Player Attempted Passes

Model 68% vs market 48% · projection 63.94

Price 11/10EV +43.5%Conf 75%
#2 · Game
49

Under 10.5 Corners

Total match corners

Model 67% vs market 64%

Price 4/7EV +5.4%Conf 73%

Three best spread bets

One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently

#1 · Game
29

BUY Total booking points at 42.00

Total booking points

Model 43.78 (range 10.60–74.20)

Edge 1.78Conf 73%
#2 · Game
28

SELL Total match corners at 9.6

Total match corners

Model 9.2 (range 5.0–14.0)

Edge 0.40Conf 73%

Predicted line-ups

Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model

Sunderland

5-4-1 · High confidence
  1. 1RoefsGKP
  2. 2BallardDEF
  3. 3HumeDEF
  4. 4AldereteDEF
  5. 5ReinildoDEF
  6. 6MeunierDEF
  7. 7E.Le FéeMID
  8. 8XhakaMID
  9. 9SadikiMID
  10. 10AnguloMID
  11. 11BrobbeyFWD

Bench: Mukiele, O'Nien, Talbi, Diarra

Out: Adingra, Methalie

Full Sunderland predicted XI →

Fulham

4-5-1 · High confidence
  1. 1LenoGKP
  2. 2AndersenDEF
  3. 3RobinsonDEF
  4. 4BasseyDEF
  5. 5CastagneDEF
  6. 6IwobiMID
  7. 7BobbMID
  8. 8BergeMID
  9. 9KingMID
  10. 10PalaciosMID
  11. 11GonzaloFWD

Bench: J.Cuenca, Smith Rowe, Tete, Sessegnon

Doubts: De Fougerolles

Out: Cairney

Full Fulham predicted XI →

Match spread markets

Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line

MarketSellBuyModelMost likelyFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
Total booking points38.0042.0043.7831.80
10.6
74.2
1.7858%73%29BUY
Total match corners9.610.19.29.0
5.0
14.0
0.457%73%28SELL
Total match goals2.502.702.632.00
1.0
5.0
0.0052%73%0NO BET
Total match shots24.625.0
16.0
34.0
73%0NO PRICE
Total match shots on target7.27.0
4.0
11.0
73%0NO PRICE
Total match fouls21.020.0
13.0
29.0
73%0NO PRICE
Goal supremacy (home)0.580.00
-1.0
3.0
73%0NO PRICE
Shot supremacy (home)2.23.0
-5.0
9.0
73%0NO PRICE
SOT supremacy (home)1.11.0
-2.0
5.0
73%0NO PRICE
Corner supremacy (home)0.71.0
-3.0
5.0
73%0NO PRICE
Card supremacy (home)-0.220.00
-3.0
2.0
73%0NO PRICE

Match fixed-odds markets

Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only

MarketSelectionPriceImpliedModelFair oddsEVConfOppSignal
Total match cornersUnder 10.5 Corners4/71.5764%67%1.49+5.4%73%49LEAN
Total match cornersUnder 9.5 Corners20/231.8753%57%1.77+5.8%73%40LEAN
Total match cardsOver 3.5 Cards8/111.7358%58%1.74-0.7%73%34NO BET
Total match cornersUnder 7.5 Corners12/53.4029%34%2.97+14.3%73%33BET
Total match cornersUnder 8.5 Corners11/82.3842%45%2.23+6.7%73%31LEAN
Total match cornersUnder 6.5 Corners4/15.0020%23%4.42+13.2%73%28LEAN
Total match cardsOver 4.5 Cards8/52.6038%39%2.54+2.5%73%28NO BET
Total match cornersOver 8.5 Corners4/71.5764%55%1.82-13.5%73%23AVOID
Total match cornersUnder 5.5 Corners13/27.5013%14%7.30+2.7%73%22NO BET
Total match cardsOver 5.5 Cards3/14.0025%24%4.14-3.3%73%21NO BET
Total match goalsOver 2.5 Goals1/12.0050%48%2.07-3.4%73%21NO BET
Total match goalsOver 3.5 Goals5/23.5029%27%3.66-4.5%73%20NO BET
Total match goalsUnder 2.5 Goals4/51.8056%52%1.93-7.0%73%20NO BET
Total match goalsOver 4.5 Goals6/17.0014%13%7.51-6.8%73%19NO BET
Total match cornersUnder 4.5 Corners12/113.008%7%13.96-6.9%73%19NO BET
Total match cardsOver 6.5 Cards11/26.5015%14%7.25-10.4%73%19AVOID
Total match goalsUnder 1.5 Goals11/53.2031%27%3.66-12.5%73%19AVOID
Total match goalsOver 5.5 Goals14/115.007%6%17.32-13.4%73%19AVOID
Total match cardsUnder 3.5 Cards1/12.0050%42%2.35-15.0%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersUnder 3.5 Corners25/126.004%3%31.50-17.4%73%19AVOID
Total match cardsOver 7.5 Cards10/111.009%7%13.37-17.7%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 9.5 Corners20/231.8753%43%2.30-18.8%73%19AVOID
Total match goalsOver 6.5 Goals33/134.003%2%43.38-21.6%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 10.5 Corners11/82.3842%33%3.04-21.9%73%19AVOID
Total match cardsUnder 2.5 Cards11/53.2031%24%4.12-22.3%73%19AVOID
Total match cardsOver 8.5 Cards20/121.005%4%27.10-22.5%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 11.5 Corners2/13.0033%24%4.17-28.1%73%19AVOID
Total match goalsUnder 0.5 Goals8/19.0011%8%12.67-28.9%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 12.5 Corners16/54.2024%17%5.94-29.3%73%19AVOID
Total match goalsOver 7.5 Goals80/181.001%1%116.96-30.7%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 13.5 Corners5/16.0017%11%8.92-32.7%73%19AVOID
Total match cardsUnder 1.5 Cards11/26.5015%10%10.00-35.0%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 14.5 Corners7/18.0013%7%13.97-42.7%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 15.5 Corners10/111.009%5%21.86-49.7%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 16.5 Corners16/117.006%3%34.25-50.4%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 17.5 Corners25/126.004%2%62.50-58.4%73%19AVOID
Total match cardsUnder 0.5 Cards18/119.005%2%45.66-58.4%73%19AVOID
Total match cornersOver 18.5 Corners40/141.002%1%108.11-62.1%73%19AVOID
Match outcome (model price)SUN win50%1.9973%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Draw25%3.9473%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)FUL win24%4.1173%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)Both teams to score50%1.9973%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)SUN -1 goal handicap26%3.7873%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)FUL +1 goal handicap74%1.3673%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)SUN draw no bet67%1.4873%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)SUN double chance76%1.3273%0NO PRICE
Match outcome (model price)FUL double chance50%2.0173%0NO PRICE

Player fixed-odds markets

Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only

PlayerMarketSelectionPriceImpliedModelProjectionEVConfScoreSignal
IwobiFULPlayer Attempted PassesAlex Iwobi - 60+11/102.1048%68%63.94+43.5%75%100BET
IwobiFULPlayer Attempted PassesAlex Iwobi - 55+3/51.6063%86%63.94+36.8%75%100BET
J.CuencaFULPlayer Attempted PassesJorge Cuenca - 70+16/54.2024%68%74.09+185.4%58%100LEAN
J.CuencaFULPlayer Attempted PassesJorge Cuenca - 65+9/52.8036%84%74.09+135.0%58%100LEAN
J.CuencaFULPlayer Attempted PassesJorge Cuenca - 60+1/12.0050%93%74.09+86.7%58%100LEAN
J.CuencaFULPlayer Attempted PassesJorge Cuenca - 55+8/151.5365%98%74.09+50.2%58%100LEAN
IwobiFULPlayer Attempted PassesAlex Iwobi - 65+2/13.0033%47%63.94+41.9%75%98BET
BasseyFULPlayer Attempted PassesCalvin Bassey - 65+8/151.5365%78%71.79+19.0%73%71BET
IwobiFULPlayer Attempted PassesAlex Iwobi - 70+18/54.6022%27%63.94+25.2%75%69BET
RobinsonFULPlayer Attempted PassesAntonee Robinson - 50+4/61.6760%72%54.41+19.8%60%66BET
BasseyFULPlayer Attempted PassesCalvin Bassey - 70+10/111.9152%59%71.79+13.4%73%58BET
RobinsonFULPlayer Attempted PassesAntonee Robinson - 55+13/102.3044%49%54.41+13.4%60%51BET
GonzaloFULPlayer Attempted PassesGonzalo Garcia - 35+14/115.007%23%30.10+237.4%38%0REFERENCE
GonzaloFULPlayer Attempted PassesGonzalo Garcia - 30+17/45.2519%54%30.10+181.2%38%0REFERENCE
GonzaloFULPlayer Attempted PassesGonzalo Garcia - 25+13/102.3044%83%30.10+90.6%38%0REFERENCE
CharlesFULPlayer Attempted PassesShea Charles - 60+5/23.5029%38%55.20+33.6%57%0REFERENCE
CharlesFULPlayer Attempted PassesShea Charles - 55+13/102.3044%55%55.20+25.8%57%0REFERENCE
CharlesFULPlayer Attempted PassesShea Charles - 50+4/61.6760%70%55.20+16.5%57%0REFERENCE
MeunierSUNPlayer Attempted PassesThomas Meunier - 40+1/21.5067%69%43.08+3.9%52%0REFERENCE

Player spread markets

Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines

PlayerMarketSellBuyModelFloor → ceilingEdgeProbConfOppSignal
LenoFULPlayer Performance8.3
5.6
10.9
0%80%0NO BET
LecomteFULPlayer Performance6.1
3.3
9.3
0%51%0NO BET
AndersenFULPlayer Performance17.8
11.0
25.1
0%76%0NO BET
RobinsonFULPlayer Performance17.8
11.5
25.2
0%63%0NO BET
J.CuencaFULPlayer Performance17.9
12.5
23.9
0%55%0NO BET
TeteFULPlayer Performance16.2
8.8
24.4
0%64%0NO BET
BasseyFULPlayer Performance18.6
12.5
25.4
0%73%0NO BET
CastagneFULPlayer Performance15.6
8.5
24.3
0%70%0NO BET
IwobiFULPlayer Performance18.4
12.6
25.6
0%71%0NO BET
Smith RoweFULPlayer Performance15.7
8.6
24.2
0%63%0NO BET
KevinFULPlayer Performance14.0
6.7
22.7
0%61%0NO BET
BobbFULPlayer Performance10.3
4.9
17.0
0%60%0NO BET
BergeFULPlayer Performance11.9
6.7
18.2
0%81%0NO BET
KingFULPlayer Performance15.4
7.5
25.6
0%60%0NO BET
SessegnonFULPlayer Performance11.7
5.4
19.3
0%61%0NO BET
MunizFULPlayer Performance8.9
2.2
17.6
0%61%0NO BET
RoefsSUNPlayer Performance5.8
3.4
8.1
0%80%0NO BET
BallardSUNPlayer Performance10.9
5.2
17.4
0%68%0NO BET
MukieleSUNPlayer Performance11.1
5.0
18.3
0%66%0NO BET
HumeSUNPlayer Performance7.6
2.7
13.6
0%81%0NO BET
AldereteSUNPlayer Performance9.0
3.8
15.1
0%69%0NO BET
ReinildoSUNPlayer Performance11.9
6.0
18.8
0%67%0NO BET
O'NienSUNPlayer Performance7.5
2.6
13.3
0%58%0NO BET
MeunierSUNPlayer Performance14.8
8.6
22.2
0%46%0NO BET
E.Le FéeSUNPlayer Performance9.6
4.1
16.5
0%80%0NO BET
DiarraSUNPlayer Performance8.2
2.8
15.1
0%55%0NO BET
XhakaSUNPlayer Performance15.5
9.5
23.0
0%70%0NO BET
SadikiSUNPlayer Performance10.8
5.4
17.5
0%72%0NO BET
MundleSUNPlayer Performance9.0
3.4
16.3
0%56%0NO BET
RiggSUNPlayer Performance9.5
3.9
16.4
0%56%0NO BET
TalbiSUNPlayer Performance5.9
1.8
11.6
0%60%0NO BET
AnguloSUNPlayer Performance8.6
2.5
16.8
0%56%0NO BET
BrobbeySUNPlayer Performance3.8
-0.6
10.7
0%62%0NO BET
IsidorSUNPlayer Performance5.8
0.2
13.7
0%56%0NO BET
GonzaloFULPlayer Performance14.8
6.8
25.4
0%36%0NO BET
PalaciosFULPlayer Performance13.7
7.4
21.4
0%50%0NO BET
CharlesFULPlayer Performance17.2
9.8
25.9
0%50%0NO BET
AhokaSUNPlayer Performance13.5
6.9
21.7
0%48%0NO BET
LenoFULShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.0
0%80%0NO BET
LecomteFULShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.0
0%51%0NO BET
AndersenFULShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.4
0%76%0NO BET
RobinsonFULShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.2
0%63%0NO BET
J.CuencaFULShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.0
0%55%0NO BET
TeteFULShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.5
0%64%0NO BET
BasseyFULShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.3
0%73%0NO BET
CastagneFULShots on Target0.3
0.0
1.2
0%70%0NO BET
IwobiFULShots on Target0.3
0.0
1.2
0%71%0NO BET
Smith RoweFULShots on Target0.4
0.0
1.3
0%63%0NO BET
KevinFULShots on Target0.5
0.0
1.6
0%61%0NO BET
BobbFULShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.6
0%60%0NO BET
BergeFULShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.2
0%81%0NO BET
KingFULShots on Target0.7
0.0
1.9
0%60%0NO BET
SessegnonFULShots on Target0.2
0.0
0.9
0%61%0NO BET
MunizFULShots on Target0.4
0.0
1.4
0%61%0NO BET
RoefsSUNShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.0
0%80%0NO BET
BallardSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.6
0%68%0NO BET
MukieleSUNShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.2
0%66%0NO BET
HumeSUNShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.2
0%81%0NO BET
AldereteSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.5
0%69%0NO BET
ReinildoSUNShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.0
0%67%0NO BET
O'NienSUNShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.2
0%58%0NO BET
MeunierSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.6
0%46%0NO BET
E.Le FéeSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.4
0%80%0NO BET
DiarraSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.7
0%55%0NO BET
XhakaSUNShots on Target0.0
0.0
0.2
0%70%0NO BET
SadikiSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.4
0%72%0NO BET
MundleSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.7
0%56%0NO BET
RiggSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.5
0%56%0NO BET
TalbiSUNShots on Target0.2
0.0
0.9
0%60%0NO BET
AnguloSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.7
0%56%0NO BET
BrobbeySUNShots on Target0.2
0.0
1.0
0%62%0NO BET
IsidorSUNShots on Target0.4
0.0
1.3
0%56%0NO BET
GonzaloFULShots on Target0.6
0.0
1.8
0%36%0NO BET
PalaciosFULShots on Target0.2
0.0
1.1
0%50%0NO BET
CharlesFULShots on Target0.3
0.0
1.2
0%50%0NO BET
AhokaSUNShots on Target0.1
0.0
0.7
0%48%0NO BET

Most likely scorelines

  • 1011.7%
  • 1111.5%
  • 219.1%

Team news & model notes

Sunderland

Masuaku (u), Adingra (i), Seelt (u)

Fulham

Cairney (i)

Model updated 30/08/2026, 02:25:23 · prices 29/08/2026, 14:31:21