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BA Carse betting stats, splits & projections

All-rounder

Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.

Record by format

Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.

overallFIRST_CLASS702394419629.957.17.571.4HIGH
overallTEST1435748917.973.09.665.4HIGH
overallT204865245117.6144.614.626.2HIGH
overallODI1822528818.878.16.950.0MEDIUM
overallHUNDRED131058611.7122.114.030.2LOW
overallLIST_A1272.028.60.071.4LOW
overallFIRST_CLASS1029668442164.031.7HIGH
overallTEST26991751583.930.2HIGH
overallODI11381227306.540.9HIGH
overallT2011101620508.832.4HIGH
overallHUNDRED3125261710.130.9MEDIUM
overallLIST_A245223105.522.3MEDIUM

Why we like it

Splits where BA Carse scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.

  • Opposition: Derbyshire (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    506 runs off 636 balls in 10 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 79.6 vs 57.1 overall, average 50.6 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Opposition: Northamptonshire (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    228 runs off 522 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 43.7 vs 57.1 overall, average 57.0 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Opposition: Glamorgan (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    268 runs off 362 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 74.0 vs 57.1 overall, average 44.7 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Venue: County Ground, Derby (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    262 runs off 320 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 81.9 vs 57.1 overall, average 43.7 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Bowling type: SPIN (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    760 runs off 1390 balls in 60 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 54.7 vs 57.1 overall, average 42.2 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Phase: new_ball (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    424 runs off 726 balls in 34 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 58.4 vs 57.1 overall, average 42.4 vs 29.9 overall.

Risks

Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.

  • Opposition: Worcestershire (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    134 runs off 384 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 34.9 vs 57.1 overall, average 33.5 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Opposition: Middlesex (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample

    112 runs off 220 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 50.9 vs 57.1 overall, average 14.0 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Opposition: Essex (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample

    100 runs off 214 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 46.7 vs 57.1 overall, average 10.0 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Opposition: Sussex (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample

    104 runs off 186 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 55.9 vs 57.1 overall, average 17.3 vs 29.9 overall.

  • Opposition: Australia (TEST)MEDIUM sample

    99 runs off 156 balls in 5 TEST matches — strike rate 63.5 vs 73.0 overall, average 11.0 vs 17.9 overall.

  • Venue: Lord's, London (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample

    112 runs off 220 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 50.9 vs 57.1 overall, average 14.0 vs 29.9 overall.

Current projections

Sri Lanka v England
ODI
7.2 runs
median 0 · 90th percentile 26 · plays 70% · 32 balls expected

Against each opponent

Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.

DerbyshireFIRST_CLASS1050663650.679.610.761.3HIGH
NorthamptonshireFIRST_CLASS422852257.043.76.177.8HIGH
NottinghamshireFIRST_CLASS620641825.849.37.275.1HIGH
WorcestershireFIRST_CLASS613438433.534.93.177.6HIGH
GlamorganFIRST_CLASS626836244.774.010.564.6HIGH
SomersetFIRST_CLASS2232358116.064.89.571.5HIGH
WarwickshireFIRST_CLASS411222256.050.55.472.1MEDIUM
MiddlesexFIRST_CLASS411222014.050.98.279.1MEDIUM
EssexFIRST_CLASS610021410.046.74.772.0MEDIUM
IndiaTEST416421427.376.610.363.1MEDIUM
LeicestershireFIRST_CLASS412020030.060.08.065.0MEDIUM
SussexFIRST_CLASS410418617.355.97.575.3MEDIUM
GloucestershireFIRST_CLASS618018222.598.913.257.1MEDIUM
AustraliaTEST59915611.063.57.766.0MEDIUM
LancashireFIRST_CLASS4241006.024.02.086.0LOW
YorkshireFIRST_CLASS2329816.032.72.077.6LOW
HampshireFIRST_CLASS2369418.038.34.376.6LOW
NottinghamshireT2051118237.0135.412.222.0LOW
AustraliaODI4458011.356.33.861.3LOW
LancashireT2071117518.5148.013.324.0LOW
PakistanTEST2406720.059.76.073.1LOW
YorkshireT2051026520.4156.920.030.8LOW
IndiaODI4305510.054.55.561.8LOW
PakistanODI2435243.082.75.844.2LOW
New ZealandTEST3545218.0103.817.363.5LOW
DerbyshireT204954731.7202.123.417.0LOW
WorcestershireT204804326.7186.023.320.9LOW
NorthamptonshireT204514217.0121.49.528.6LOW
Birmingham BearsT20634366.894.45.636.1LOW
West IndiesODI3363536.0102.911.442.9LOW
Trent RocketsHUNDRED2333033.0110.010.026.7LOW

Bowling

DerbyshireFIRST_CLASS1176814184.245.2HIGH
WorcestershireFIRST_CLASS1038560243.223.3HIGH
EssexFIRST_CLASS994620223.728.2HIGH
NottinghamshireFIRST_CLASS980850225.238.6HIGH
IndiaTEST93054893.560.9HIGH
AustraliaTEST832667224.830.3HIGH
GloucestershireFIRST_CLASS796468223.521.3HIGH
LancashireFIRST_CLASS73248664.081.0HIGH
SussexFIRST_CLASS710454183.825.2HIGH
LeicestershireFIRST_CLASS696340162.921.3HIGH
WarwickshireFIRST_CLASS670488164.430.5HIGH
GlamorganFIRST_CLASS576426124.435.5HIGH
New ZealandTEST535317183.617.6HIGH
NorthamptonshireFIRST_CLASS528412124.734.3HIGH
MiddlesexFIRST_CLASS464366144.726.1HIGH
PakistanTEST40221993.324.3HIGH
SomersetFIRST_CLASS36026064.343.3HIGH
HampshireFIRST_CLASS31214822.874.0MEDIUM
YorkshireFIRST_CLASS26415263.525.3MEDIUM
AustraliaODI25831397.334.8MEDIUM
West IndiesODI22826256.952.4MEDIUM
South AfricaODI18017135.757.0MEDIUM
LeicestershireT2016221758.043.4MEDIUM
PakistanODI15013665.422.7MEDIUM
IndiaODI14216727.183.5LOW
LancashireT2013220029.1100.0LOW
NorthamptonshireT2010215138.950.3LOW
IndiaT209613498.414.9LOW
YorkshireT2096160210.080.0LOW
NetherlandsODI908535.728.3LOW
NottinghamshireT208711638.038.7LOW
Birmingham BearsT208311668.419.3LOW
DerbyshireT207811548.828.8LOW
WorcestershireT20789937.633.0LOW
New ZealandT207611879.316.9LOW
West IndiesT2072134211.267.0LOW
DerbyshireLIST_A605615.656.0LOW
LeicestershireLIST_A605835.819.3LOW
Manchester Super GiantsHUNDRED57117212.358.5LOW
WarwickshireLIST_A545235.817.3LOW
Welsh FireHUNDRED508259.816.4LOW
IrelandODI484015.040.0LOW
New ZealandODI425317.653.0LOW
NorthamptonshireLIST_A414116.041.0LOW
Manchester OriginalsHUNDRED4067110.167.0LOW

By venue

Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-StreetFIRST_CLASS341098196232.356.06.570.4HIGH
Trent Bridge, NottinghamFIRST_CLASS419439432.349.27.175.6HIGH
The Cooper Associates County Ground, TauntonFIRST_CLASS2232358116.064.89.571.5HIGH
County Ground, DerbyFIRST_CLASS626232043.781.911.961.3HIGH
Lord's, LondonFIRST_CLASS411222014.050.98.279.1MEDIUM
Sophia Gardens, CardiffFIRST_CLASS218222091.082.711.860.9MEDIUM
County Ground, HoveFIRST_CLASS410418617.355.97.575.3MEDIUM
County Ground, NorthamptonFIRST_CLASS27417418.542.56.977.0MEDIUM
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-StreetT201219013321.1142.912.825.6MEDIUM
Edgbaston, BirminghamFIRST_CLASS23211616.027.63.482.8LOW
The Rose Bowl, SouthamptonFIRST_CLASS2369418.038.34.376.6LOW
Lord's, LondonTEST1578728.565.58.062.1LOW
Adelaide OvalTEST1396939.056.57.266.7LOW
Riverside GroundT2071126828.0164.719.119.1LOW
Lord's, LondonODI4556718.382.16.044.8LOW
Multan Cricket StadiumTEST2406720.059.76.073.1LOW
Grace Road, LeicesterFIRST_CLASS2346217.054.89.767.7LOW
Headingley, LeedsODI2295329.054.75.766.0LOW
Old Trafford, ManchesterTEST1475347.088.79.456.6LOW
Edgbaston, BirminghamTEST1385119.074.511.872.5LOW
County Ground, ChelmsfordFIRST_CLASS230487.562.58.366.7LOW
Trent Bridge, NottinghamODI2343817.089.57.942.1LOW
Trent Bridge, NottinghamHUNDRED2333033.0110.010.026.7LOW

Bowling

Riverside Ground, Chester-le-StreetFIRST_CLASS464029281043.828.2HIGH
County Ground, HoveFIRST_CLASS710454183.825.2HIGH
County Ground, DerbyFIRST_CLASS648440104.144.0HIGH
Trent Bridge, NottinghamFIRST_CLASS590546125.645.5HIGH
Sedbergh SchoolFIRST_CLASS52830063.450.0HIGH
Lord's, LondonFIRST_CLASS464366144.726.1HIGH
County Ground, ChelmsfordFIRST_CLASS418238163.414.9HIGH
County Ground, New Road, WorcesterFIRST_CLASS414206103.020.6HIGH
Edgbaston, BirminghamFIRST_CLASS40836025.3180.0HIGH
Multan Cricket StadiumTEST40221993.324.3HIGH
The Cooper Associates County Ground, TauntonFIRST_CLASS36026064.343.3HIGH
Sophia Gardens, CardiffFIRST_CLASS33624284.330.3MEDIUM
County Ground, NorthamptonFIRST_CLASS32428865.348.0MEDIUM
The Rose Bowl, SouthamptonFIRST_CLASS31214822.874.0MEDIUM
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-StreetT20264335147.623.9MEDIUM
Headingley, LeedsTEST24617644.344.0MEDIUM
Lord's, LondonTEST24011832.939.3MEDIUM
Hagley Oval, ChristchurchTEST229106102.810.6MEDIUM
Lord's, LondonODI22823366.138.8MEDIUM
Old Trafford, ManchesterTEST22811503.0—MEDIUM
Adelaide OvalTEST21616954.733.8MEDIUM
Edgbaston, BirminghamTEST21613923.969.5MEDIUM
Sydney Cricket GroundTEST21018135.260.3MEDIUM
Headingley, LeedsHUNDRED180344811.543.0MEDIUM
Riverside GroundT2018024748.261.8MEDIUM
Seddon Park, HamiltonTEST18011223.756.0MEDIUM
Brisbane Cricket Ground, Woolloongabba, BrisbaneTEST17415245.238.0MEDIUM
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-StreetLIST_A16115555.831.0MEDIUM
Grace Road, LeicesterFIRST_CLASS1446822.834.0LOW
Melbourne Cricket GroundTEST1387653.315.2LOW
Basin Reserve, WellingtonTEST1269964.716.5LOW
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-StreetODI11410125.350.5LOW
Edgbaston, BirminghamODI9610066.316.7LOW
Sophia Gardens, CardiffODI969015.690.0LOW
Perth StadiumTEST948955.717.8LOW
Headingley, LeedsODI909936.633.0LOW
Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, AntiguaODI9010717.1107.0LOW
VRA Ground, AmstelveenODI908535.728.3LOW
Trent Bridge, NottinghamODI788216.382.0LOW
Kennington Oval, LondonODI709528.147.5LOW
Grace Road, LeicesterT20669028.245.0LOW
Edgbaston, BirminghamLIST_A545235.817.3LOW
Old Trafford, ManchesterODI484515.645.0LOW
Old Trafford, ManchesterT204883210.441.5LOW
Gaddafi Stadium, LahoreODI426919.969.0LOW
HeadingleyT20425918.459.0LOW
Edgbaston, BirminghamT20416038.820.0LOW
Kennington Oval, LondonHUNDRED404036.013.3LOW
The Rose Bowl, SouthamptonODI363325.516.5LOW
County GroundT20364828.024.0LOW

By country

Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.

UnknownFIRST_CLASS702394419629.957.17.571.4HIGH
UnknownTEST1435748917.973.09.665.4HIGH
UnknownT203747933316.5143.814.126.7HIGH
UnknownODI1822528818.878.16.950.0MEDIUM
United KingdomT201117311821.6146.616.124.6LOW
UnknownHUNDRED131058611.7122.114.030.2LOW

Bowling

UnknownFIRST_CLASS1029668442164.031.7HIGH
UnknownTEST26991751583.930.2HIGH
UnknownODI11381227306.540.9HIGH
UnknownT208101217419.029.7HIGH
UnknownHUNDRED3125261710.130.9MEDIUM
United KingdomT2030040398.144.8MEDIUM
UnknownLIST_A245223105.522.3MEDIUM

By match phase

Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.

old_ballFIRST_CLASS701970347028.156.87.771.8HIGH
new_ballFIRST_CLASS3442472642.458.46.669.1HIGH
old_ballTEST1431943817.772.89.666.0HIGH
deathT203537924815.8152.814.924.2MEDIUM
middleT202926519620.4135.214.327.6MEDIUM
middleODI710616626.563.95.456.0MEDIUM
deathODI1311912214.997.59.041.8MEDIUM
new_ballTEST5385119.074.59.860.8LOW
deathHUNDRED10604710.0127.714.929.8LOW
middleHUNDRED5453915.0115.412.830.8LOW

Bowling

old_ballFIRST_CLASS889258521923.930.5HIGH
old_ballTEST21831368483.828.5HIGH
new_ballFIRST_CLASS1404992244.241.3HIGH
middleODI826877146.462.6HIGH
powerplayT20535749228.434.0HIGH
new_ballTEST516383104.538.3HIGH
middleT20390583199.030.7HIGH
powerplayODI21621696.024.0MEDIUM
deathT2018528899.332.0MEDIUM
powerplayHUNDRED165252119.222.9MEDIUM
powerplayLIST_A1149454.918.8LOW
middleHUNDRED97172410.643.0LOW
deathODI9613478.419.1LOW
middleLIST_A847425.337.0LOW
deathHUNDRED50102212.251.0LOW
deathLIST_A475537.018.3LOW

Against pace and spin

Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.

PACEFIRST_CLASS681484260225.657.07.570.8HIGH
SPINFIRST_CLASS60760139042.254.77.273.2HIGH
PACETEST1322332014.969.79.765.9HIGH
SPINT203934223514.9145.516.230.2MEDIUM
UNKNOWNFIRST_CLASS2215020437.573.510.865.7MEDIUM
PACET203426218320.2143.213.123.5MEDIUM
PACEODI1513714917.191.98.743.6MEDIUM
SPINODI117712125.763.65.056.2MEDIUM
SPINTEST68311820.870.37.668.6LOW
PACEHUNDRED12695411.5127.814.829.6LOW
UNKNOWNTEST7515151.0100.013.754.9LOW
UNKNOWNT2010483348.0145.512.112.1LOW
SPINHUNDRED8363212.0112.512.531.3LOW

How these splits are used

The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.