How does the season spread model work?

The model projects each player's season totals from top-flight appearance and output history, adjusted for minutes and role, then compares that projection with the quoted spread to identify buy or sell value.

Is spread betting riskier than fixed-odds betting?

Yes. With fixed-odds betting your maximum loss is your stake. With spread betting, losses scale with how wrong the outcome is and can exceed your deposit unless you use a stop loss.

What does confidence mean in the spread model?

Confidence scales with minutes played and how many seasons of data support a projection. Low-confidence edges should be staked much smaller than high-confidence ones.

Spread Betting

Looking for today's matchday tips?

This page is a pre-season / season-long value model built from top-level history. For live player, team and match spread recommendations priced against current Spreadex lines and predicted lineups, use the live matchday section.

Live spread betting tips →Premier League fixed-odds tips Matches & predictions

Spreadex · Premier League 2026/27

Season-long spread value model

Every Spreadex season player spread on the board, priced against a projection built only from top-level history — goals, assists and minutes over last season and the last three seasons. Buy where the model sits above the buy price, sell where it sits below the sell price.

Players priced

212

Markets quoted

795

Edges over 10%

488

Board captured

2026-08-18

MarketTeamPositionSideMin edge 10%Min confidence 40Search player

97 bets shown, ranked by edge × confidence

Transfer & role adjustments

Tick any combination — projections and edges recalculate instantly.

Penalty splitProjects non-penalty goals, then adds an expected penalty haul only for each club's current designated taker.Club strengthScales goal and assist rates by the attacking output implied by the new club's season points spread versus the old club's.Transfer minutesDiscounts projected minutes for players who have changed club — hardest on those moving up to a stronger squad.New to the leagueIncludes overseas and promoted-club signings with no Premier League record, projected from positional baselines at very low confidence.


Hugo Ekitike Liverpool · FWD	Goals	5.00 – 6.00	10.15	BUY	4.15(75.4%)	50
Oscar BobbMOVED Fulham · MID · from Man City	Goals	4.00 – 4.75	0.83	SELL	3.17(72.4%)	50
Antonio Silva Bournemouth · DEF	Goals	1.60 – 2.10	0.38	SELL	1.22(66.0%)	63
Joshua King Fulham · MID	Goals	4.25 – 5.00	1.40	SELL	2.85(61.7%)	46
Antonee Robinson Fulham · DEF	Goals	1.30 – 1.80	0.38	SELL	0.92(59.3%)	100
Ferdi Kadioglu Brighton · DEF	Goals	3.00 – 3.75	1.08	SELL	1.92(57.0%)	87
Ian Maatsen Aston Villa · DEF	Goals	1.60 – 2.10	0.55	SELL	1.05(57.0%)	100
Sepp van den Berg Brentford · DEF	Goals	1.20 – 1.70	0.39	SELL	0.81(56.1%)	87
Abdukodir Khusanov Man City · DEF	Goals	1.10 – 1.60	0.35	SELL	0.75(55.8%)	62
Gustavo Hamer Coventry · MID	Goals	2.00 – 2.75	4.04	BUY	1.29(54.5%)	73
James McAtee Nott'm Forest · MID	Goals	4.00 – 4.75	1.72	SELL	2.28(52.0%)	91
Issa DiopMOVED Ipswich · DEF · from Fulham	Goals	1.50 – 2.00	0.60	SELL	0.90(51.2%)	100
Keane Lewis-Potter Brentford · FWD	Goals	2.25 – 3.00	4.31	BUY	1.31(50.0%)	100
Andrey SantosMOVED Man Utd · MID · from Chelsea	Goals	2.75 – 3.50	1.31	SELL	1.44(46.1%)	41
Emiliano Buendia Aston Villa · MID	Goals	6.75 – 7.75	3.47	SELL	3.28(45.2%)	59
Daichi Kamada Crystal Palace · MID	Goals	2.25 – 3.00	1.11	SELL	1.14(43.5%)	87
Florian Wirtz Liverpool · MID	Goals	8.50 – 9.50	4.68	SELL	3.82(42.5%)	65
Reinildo Mandava Sunderland · DEF	Goals	0.80 – 1.30	0.37	SELL	0.43(40.5%)	53
Bruno GuimaraesMOVED Arsenal · MID · from Newcastle	Goals	3.75 – 4.50	6.15	BUY	1.65(40.0%)	100
Gabriel Gudmundsson Leeds · DEF	Goals	0.80 – 1.30	0.39	SELL	0.41(39.5%)	72
Patrick Dorgu Man Utd · DEF	Goals	3.50 – 4.25	1.99	SELL	1.51(39.1%)	73
Tyrone Mings Aston Villa · DEF	Goals	0.70 – 1.20	0.34	SELL	0.36(37.8%)	92
Riccardo Calafiori Arsenal · DEF	Goals	2.25 – 3.00	1.28	SELL	0.97(37.0%)	86
Diego Gomez Brighton · MID	Goals	5.75 – 6.75	3.44	SELL	2.31(36.9%)	85
Pascal Gross Brighton · MID	Goals	4.00 – 4.75	2.39	SELL	1.61(36.9%)	86
Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool · MID	Goals	8.25 – 9.25	5.03	SELL	3.22(36.8%)	100
James Hill Bournemouth · DEF	Goals	0.70 – 1.20	0.35	SELL	0.35(36.6%)	97
Martin Odegaard Arsenal · MID	Goals	4.50 – 5.25	2.72	SELL	1.78(36.5%)	100
Florentino Luis Ipswich · MID	Goals	0.40 – 0.90	1.13	BUY	0.23(35.5%)	57
Yeremy Pino Crystal Palace · MID	Goals	4.00 – 4.75	2.52	SELL	1.48(33.7%)	57
Youri TielemansMOVED Man Utd · MID · from Aston Villa	Goals	3.25 – 4.00	2.05	SELL	1.20(33.2%)	100
Rayan Cherki Man City · MID	Goals	6.00 – 7.00	3.85	SELL	2.15(33.1%)	49
Kai Havertz Arsenal · FWD	Goals	9.50 – 11.00	6.20	SELL	3.30(32.2%)	100
Igor Jesus Nott'm Forest · FWD	Goals	8.75 – 9.75	5.81	SELL	2.94(31.8%)	63
Tyler Adams Bournemouth · MID	Goals	0.90 – 1.40	1.76	BUY	0.36(31.2%)	100
Mathys Tel Spurs · FWD	Goals	6.00 – 7.00	3.98	SELL	2.02(31.1%)	72
Lisandro Martinez Man Utd · DEF	Goals	1.20 – 1.70	0.75	SELL	0.45(31.1%)	100
Omar Alderete Sunderland · DEF	Goals	1.75 – 2.50	1.11	SELL	0.64(30.3%)	73
Alex Iwobi Fulham · FWD	Goals	4.25 – 5.00	6.37	BUY	1.37(29.6%)	100
Trai Hume Sunderland · DEF	Goals	2.75 – 3.50	1.83	SELL	0.92(29.3%)	73
Joao Pedro Chelsea · FWD	Goals	13.50 – 15.00	9.33	SELL	4.17(29.2%)	100
William Osula Newcastle · FWD	Goals	6.50 – 7.50	4.46	SELL	2.04(29.1%)	64
Brennan JohnsonMOVED Everton · FWD · from Spurs	Goals	3.75 – 4.50	5.69	BUY	1.19(29.0%)	100
Neco Williams Nott'm Forest · DEF	Goals	2.00 – 2.75	1.32	SELL	0.68(28.8%)	100
Emile Smith Rowe Fulham · MID	Goals	4.75 – 5.75	3.34	SELL	1.41(26.9%)	100
Diogo Dalot Man Utd · DEF	Goals	1.50 – 2.00	1.03	SELL	0.47(26.8%)	100
Alex Scott Bournemouth · MID	Goals	3.25 – 4.00	2.28	SELL	0.97(26.7%)	100
Frank OnyekaMOVED Coventry · MID · from Brentford	Goals	1.20 – 1.70	0.81	SELL	0.39(26.6%)	47
Omar Marmoush Man City · FWD	Goals	6.75 – 7.75	4.83	SELL	1.92(26.5%)	60
Harry Maguire Man Utd · DEF	Goals	1.70 – 2.20	1.18	SELL	0.52(26.4%)	100
Maxence LacroixMOVED Chelsea · DEF · from Crystal Palace	Goals	1.75 – 2.50	1.19	SELL	0.56(26.4%)	87
Ezri Konsa Aston Villa · DEF	Goals	1.40 – 1.90	0.97	SELL	0.43(26.3%)	100
Levi Colwill Chelsea · DEF	Goals	1.30 – 1.80	0.89	SELL	0.41(26.3%)	100
Joachim Andersen Fulham · DEF	Goals	1.00 – 1.50	0.68	SELL	0.32(25.8%)	100
Amad Diallo Man Utd · FWD	Goals	6.50 – 7.50	4.70	SELL	1.80(25.7%)	100
Piero Hincapie Arsenal · DEF	Goals	1.50 – 2.00	1.05	SELL	0.45(25.5%)	49
Matheus Nunes Man City · MID	Goals	0.90 – 1.40	1.69	BUY	0.29(25.0%)	100
Georginio Rutter Brighton · FWD	Goals	6.50 – 7.50	4.78	SELL	1.72(24.6%)	87
James Maddison Spurs · MID	Goals	4.75 – 5.75	3.48	SELL	1.27(24.1%)	100
Ismaila Sarr Crystal Palace · FWD	Goals	9.50 – 11.00	7.06	SELL	2.44(23.8%)	87
Brian Brobbey Sunderland · FWD	Goals	9.50 – 11.00	7.08	SELL	2.42(23.6%)	52
Murillo Nott'm Forest · DEF	Goals	1.60 – 2.10	1.17	SELL	0.43(23.4%)	100
Eli Junior Kroupi Bournemouth · FWD	Goals	6.75 – 7.75	9.41	BUY	1.66(22.9%)	46
Malick Thiaw Newcastle · DEF	Goals	2.00 – 2.75	3.27	BUY	0.52(22.1%)	73
Daniel Munoz Crystal Palace · DEF	Goals	3.50 – 4.25	2.65	SELL	0.85(21.9%)	100
Myles Lewis-Skelly Arsenal · DEF	Goals	0.80 – 1.30	0.58	SELL	0.22(21.3%)	66
Enzo Fernandez Chelsea · MID	Goals	7.25 – 8.25	5.63	SELL	1.62(20.9%)	100
Tino Livramento Newcastle · DEF	Goals	0.70 – 1.20	0.51	SELL	0.19(20.4%)	100
Nathan Collins Brentford · DEF	Goals	1.70 – 2.20	1.33	SELL	0.37(19.0%)	100
Viktor Gyokeres Arsenal · FWD	Goals	12.50 – 14.00	10.00	SELL	2.50(18.9%)	61
Igor ThiagoPENS Brentford · FWD	Goals	14.00 – 15.50	11.25	SELL	2.75(18.6%)	87
Justin KluivertPENS Bournemouth · FWD	Goals	5.75 – 6.75	7.90	BUY	1.15(18.4%)	100
Dan Ballard Sunderland · DEF	Goals	2.25 – 3.00	1.78	SELL	0.47(18.1%)	58
Sven Botman Newcastle · DEF	Goals	1.20 – 1.70	0.95	SELL	0.25(17.2%)	100
Dominic Calvert-LewinPENS Leeds · FWD	Goals	12.00 – 13.50	10.00	SELL	2.00(15.7%)	100
Jaka Bijol Leeds · DEF	Goals	1.30 – 1.80	1.06	SELL	0.24(15.3%)	51
Kristoffer Ajer Brentford · DEF	Goals	0.80 – 1.30	0.64	SELL	0.16(15.3%)	100
Sasa LukicMOVED Ipswich · MID · from Fulham	Goals	1.75 – 2.50	1.44	SELL	0.31(14.7%)	100
Bruno FernandesPENS Man Utd · MID	Goals	10.00 – 11.50	8.48	SELL	1.52(14.1%)	100
Ruben Dias Man City · DEF	Goals	1.30 – 1.80	1.08	SELL	0.22(14.0%)	100
Cole PalmerPENS Chelsea · MID	Goals	12.50 – 14.00	10.68	SELL	1.82(13.8%)	100
Chris Richards Crystal Palace · DEF	Goals	1.30 – 1.80	1.09	SELL	0.21(13.5%)	100
Jack Hinshelwood Brighton · MID	Goals	4.50 – 5.25	3.87	SELL	0.63(12.9%)	100
James Tarkowski Everton · DEF	Goals	1.75 – 2.50	1.48	SELL	0.27(12.6%)	100
Tim Iroegbunam Everton · MID	Goals	1.20 – 1.70	1.02	SELL	0.18(12.3%)	82
Kevin Schade Brentford · MID	Goals	7.75 – 8.75	6.77	SELL	0.98(11.9%)	100
Evanilson Bournemouth · FWD	Goals	8.75 – 9.75	7.65	SELL	1.10(11.8%)	87
Elliot AndersonMOVED Man City · MID · from Nott'm Forest	Goals	3.25 – 4.00	2.83	SELL	0.42(11.5%)	100
Cody Gakpo Liverpool · FWD	Goals	9.50 – 10.50	8.35	SELL	1.15(11.5%)	100
Jayden Bogle Leeds · DEF	Goals	1.75 – 2.50	1.52	SELL	0.23(11.0%)	87
Sandro TonaliMOVED Spurs · MID · from Newcastle	Goals	2.50 – 3.25	2.19	SELL	0.31(10.9%)	100
Reece James Chelsea · DEF	Goals	1.40 – 1.90	1.22	SELL	0.18(10.8%)	100
Tyrick Mitchell Crystal Palace · DEF	Goals	1.20 – 1.70	1.04	SELL	0.16(10.8%)	100
Jean-Philippe Mateta Crystal Palace · FWD	Goals	10.50 – 12.00	9.29	SELL	1.21(10.7%)	100
Rodrigo Muniz Fulham · FWD	Goals	5.75 – 6.75	5.12	SELL	0.63(10.1%)	100
Morgan RogersMOVED Chelsea · MID · from Aston Villa	Goals	7.75 – 8.75	6.92	SELL	0.83(10.0%)	100
Alejandro GarnachoMOVED Aston Villa · FWD · from Man Utd	Goals	5.00 – 6.00	4.45	SELL	0.55(10.0%)	100

Team spreads

Season points and finishing position quotes, for framing the player calls.


Arsenal	79.5 – 81.0	1.9 – 2.9
Man City	75.0 – 76.5	2.7 – 3.7
Liverpool	70.0 – 71.5	3.7 – 4.7
Chelsea	68.0 – 69.5	4.4 – 5.4
Man Utd	67.0 – 68.5	4.6 – 5.6
Spurs	60.0 – 61.5	7.1 – 8.1
Aston Villa	56.0 – 57.5	7.9 – 8.9
Brighton	52.0 – 53.5	9.5 – 10.5
Brentford	48.5 – 50.0	10.9 – 11.9
Nott'm Forest	48.5 – 50.0	11.4 – 12.4
Bournemouth	48.0 – 49.5	11.2 – 12.2
Everton	48.0 – 49.5	11.3 – 12.3
Leeds	48.0 – 49.5	11.7 – 12.7
Newcastle	47.0 – 48.5	11.2 – 12.2
Crystal Palace	44.5 – 46.0	12.4 – 13.4
Fulham	43.5 – 45.0	12.8 – 13.8
Sunderland	41.5 – 43.0	14.0 – 15.0
Coventry	33.5 – 35.0	16.5 – 17.5
Ipswich	33.0 – 34.5	16.4 – 17.4
Hull	23.5 – 25.0	18.0 – 19.0

How the projection works

Minutes, goals and assists are official Premier League totals only, taken from the last three Premier League seasons and weighted 50 / 30 / 20 towards the most recent.
Per-90 rates are shrunk towards a positional baseline, so small samples do not produce wild projections.
Projected minutes regress towards a 1,750-minute mean and cap at 3,100.
PGM is projected as goals × 51.7 (the board's implied average goal minute); Performance as 50 per goal + 30 per assist; Goals × Assists as the product of the two projections.
Cards are total yellows + reds from official Premier League records, turned into a per-90 booking rate (shrunk to a positional baseline) and multiplied by projected minutes. Club strength and the penalty split do not affect it.
Confidence scales with minutes played and seasons of data. Ranking is edge % × confidence.
With the penalty split on, historical penalty goals are stripped out and 4.6 × 0.78 × 0.85 penalty goals (scaled by club strength) are added back only for each club's current designated taker — the player with the heaviest recent penalty record still at that club.
Club strength and transfer minutes use each player's 2026/27 club from the official squad lists against the club he actually played for in 2025/26.

No Premier League record (43)

Quoted by Spreadex but with no Premier League minutes in the last three seasons — overseas and promoted-club signings. Tick “New to the league” above to price them from positional baselines at very low confidence.

Christos TzolisJohan ManzambiMamadou SangareLuka VuskovicGeovany QuendaMarco PalestraHaji WrightJack RudoniEphron Mason-ClarkVictor TorpTatsuhiro SakamotoCaleb YirenkiBobby ThomasAurele AmendaHayden HackneyGonzalo GarciaMatt CrooksMohamed BelloumiJens Hjerto-DahlLiam MillarRegan SlaterSemi AjayiEmersonnDaizen MaedaAzor MatusiwaTarik MuharemovicMarcos SenseiBrian MadjoAlvaro RodriguezEmmanuel EmeghaEllis SimmsBrandon Thomas-AsanteMilan van EwijkAnan KhalailiCesar PalaciosElliot StroudNobel MendyLucas HerringtonMarcelino NunezVictor MunozJeremy JacquetSean SteurOusmane Diomande

What is football spread betting?

Instead of fixed odds, a spread firm quotes a range around an expected quantity — goals, corners, shots, supremacy or a player performance index. You buy if you think the real figure will finish higher and sell if you think it will finish lower, winning or losing a multiple of your stake for every point of difference.

Why model-priced spreads beat gut feel

Spread quotes move with money as much as with information. Pricing every market independently from underlying data gives you a reference point, so you only take a side when the quote has drifted away from a defensible projection.

Frequently asked questions

What is football spread betting?: In spread betting you buy or sell a market at a quoted spread — for example a player's season goals — and your profit or loss is the difference between the outcome and your buy or sell price, multiplied by your stake per unit. Losses can exceed your initial stake.
How does the season spread model work?: The model projects each player's season totals from top-flight appearance and output history, adjusted for minutes and role, then compares that projection with the quoted spread to identify buy or sell value.
Is spread betting riskier than fixed-odds betting?: Yes. With fixed-odds betting your maximum loss is your stake. With spread betting, losses scale with how wrong the outcome is and can exceed your deposit unless you use a stop loss.
What does confidence mean in the spread model?: Confidence scales with minutes played and how many seasons of data support a projection. Low-confidence edges should be staked much smaller than high-confidence ones.

Fixed-Odds Value Betting Models

The same projection engine that prices our spread tips also scans every fixed-odds market. Open the full models below to see where bookmaker prices sit above the model's true odds.

Player markets

Player fixed-odds value bets — shots, cards & goalscorer markets

Every player prop priced by the model and compared to live bookmaker odds, ranked by edge and probability.

Team markets

Team fixed-odds value bets — corners, bookings & team goals

Model-priced team totals for every fixture with the best value fixed-odds bets across the matchday.