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Premier League Betting Tips Today

Free, model-priced football predictions and best bets for every Premier League market

Our free Premier League betting tips come from one projection engine. We simulate every match thousands of times using player and team form, fixture difficulty, predicted lineups and live prices, strip the bookmaker margin out of the odds, and publish only the football bets where our fair probability beats the price on offer.

You get today's best bets across match result, both teams to score, over/under goals, corners, cards, anytime goalscorer and player shots — plus spread betting angles on the same fixtures.

Every selection below is ranked by Opportunity Score, which blends expected value, model confidence and price freshness. Fixtures drop off the board at kick-off, so you are only ever looking at bets you can still take.

Last updated: 20/10/2026, 07:54:53 · 1 Premier League fixture on Friday 23 October

Today's Premier League football tips, ranked by Opportunity Score.

Every tip on this page is a fixed-odds selection where the de-margined bookmaker price implies a lower probability than our Premier League model. Selections are ranked by Opportunity Score, which blends expected value, confidence and market liquidity.

Player, team and match markets sit side by side, and fixtures drop off the board at kick-off so you are only ever looking at bets you can still take.

Today's best Premier League bets

#1 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match corners

Bet: Under 9.5 Corners at 5/6 (1.833)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET73
Odds (fixed)
5/6 · 1.833
Model probability
84%
Fair implied
50%
Fair odds
1.18
Model EV
+54.7%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
73
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 9.5 Corners on total match corners is priced at 1.833. The joint match simulation gives it 84% against a fair implied 50%, worth 54.7% expected value.

  • · IPS expected corners: 3.07
  • · NFO expected corners: 3.64
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 6.7
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 3 to 10 (10th–90th percentile)

#2 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match corners

Bet: Under 10.5 Corners at 8/15 (1.533)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET73
Odds (fixed)
8/15 · 1.533
Model probability
90%
Fair implied
60%
Fair odds
1.11
Model EV
+38.6%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
73
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 10.5 Corners on total match corners is priced at 1.533. The joint match simulation gives it 90% against a fair implied 60%, worth 38.6% expected value.

  • · IPS expected corners: 3.07
  • · NFO expected corners: 3.64
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 6.7
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 3 to 10 (10th–90th percentile)

#3 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match corners

Bet: Under 11.5 Corners at 1/3 (1.333)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET73
Odds (fixed)
1/3 · 1.333
Model probability
94%
Fair implied
69%
Fair odds
1.06
Model EV
+25.5%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
73
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 11.5 Corners on total match corners is priced at 1.333. The joint match simulation gives it 94% against a fair implied 69%, worth 25.5% expected value.

  • · IPS expected corners: 3.07
  • · NFO expected corners: 3.64
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 6.7
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 3 to 10 (10th–90th percentile)

#4 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match corners

Bet: Under 8.5 Corners at 7/5 (2.4)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET69
Odds (fixed)
7/5 · 2.4
Model probability
76%
Fair implied
38%
Fair odds
1.31
Model EV
+82.6%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
69
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 8.5 Corners on total match corners is priced at 2.4. The joint match simulation gives it 76% against a fair implied 38%, worth 82.6% expected value.

  • · IPS expected corners: 3.07
  • · NFO expected corners: 3.64
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 6.7
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 3 to 10 (10th–90th percentile)

#5 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match corners

Bet: Under 7.5 Corners at 11/5 (3.2)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET61
Odds (fixed)
11/5 · 3.2
Model probability
65%
Fair implied
29%
Fair odds
1.54
Model EV
+107.6%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
61
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 7.5 Corners on total match corners is priced at 3.2. The joint match simulation gives it 65% against a fair implied 29%, worth 107.6% expected value.

  • · IPS expected corners: 3.07
  • · NFO expected corners: 3.64
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 6.7
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 3 to 10 (10th–90th percentile)

#6 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match corners

Bet: Under 6.5 Corners at 15/4 (4.75)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET50
Odds (fixed)
15/4 · 4.75
Model probability
51%
Fair implied
20%
Fair odds
1.95
Model EV
+143.3%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
50
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 6.5 Corners on total match corners is priced at 4.75. The joint match simulation gives it 51% against a fair implied 20%, worth 143.3% expected value.

  • · IPS expected corners: 3.07
  • · NFO expected corners: 3.64
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 6.7
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 3 to 10 (10th–90th percentile)

#7 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match corners

Bet: Under 5.5 Corners at 6/1 (7)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET49
Odds (fixed)
6/1 · 7
Model probability
38%
Fair implied
13%
Fair odds
2.66
Model EV
+162.7%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
49
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 5.5 Corners on total match corners is priced at 7. The joint match simulation gives it 38% against a fair implied 13%, worth 162.7% expected value.

  • · IPS expected corners: 3.07
  • · NFO expected corners: 3.64
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 6.7
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 3 to 10 (10th–90th percentile)

#8 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match corners

Bet: Under 4.5 Corners at 10/1 (11)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET49
Odds (fixed)
10/1 · 11
Model probability
24%
Fair implied
8%
Fair odds
4.21
Model EV
+161.1%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
49
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 4.5 Corners on total match corners is priced at 11. The joint match simulation gives it 24% against a fair implied 8%, worth 161.1% expected value.

  • · IPS expected corners: 3.07
  • · NFO expected corners: 3.64
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 6.7
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 3 to 10 (10th–90th percentile)

#9 · Match market · Fixed odds

IPS v NFO — Total match goals

Bet: Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (2.1)

IPS v NFO · Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

BET45
Odds (fixed)
11/10 · 2.1
Model probability
56%
Fair implied
44%
Fair odds
1.8
Model EV
+16.9%
Confidence
51%
Opportunity Score
45
Recommendation
BET

Why the model likes it

Under 2.5 Goals on total match goals is priced at 2.1. The joint match simulation gives it 56% against a fair implied 44%, worth 16.9% expected value.

  • · IPS expected goals: 1.26
  • · NFO expected goals: 1.2
  • · Combined match expectation before correlation: 2.46
  • · Simulated spread of outcomes: 1 to 5 (10th–90th percentile)

Premier League player projections — next three days

From the same simulation engine that prices our tips: the five players most likely to be booked, the five most likely anytime goalscorers, the five most likely to open the scoring and the five most likely to register an assist, across Premier League fixtures kicking off in the next three days.

Most likely to be booked

Top five players by modelled booking chance.

Projections for fixtures in the next three days will appear here once priced.

Most likely to score

Top five anytime goalscorer chances from the goals projection model.

Projections for fixtures in the next three days will appear here once priced.

Most likely to score first

Share of each match's projected goals, adjusted for a goalless game.

Projections for fixtures in the next three days will appear here once priced.

Most likely to assist

Top five players by modelled chance of providing an assist.

Projections for fixtures in the next three days will appear here once priced.

Correct score predictions for every Premier League game

The predicted score for each fixture is our model's expected goals rounded to the nearest whole number — what the simulation thinks each side will score on average, not the single most common scoreline. "Model chance" is how often that exact scoreline occurred across the simulations; "Most likely scorelines" lists the highest-probability individual scorelines from the same joint match simulation behind our match previews.

Predicted correct score for each upcoming Premier League fixture
Predicted scoreMost likely scorelinesExpected goals
Ipswich Town v Nott'm ForestIpswich Town XINott'm Forest XIFri 20:001–112%1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%)1.3–1.2
Aston Villa v Man CityAston Villa XIMan City XISat 12:301–112%1–1 (12%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%)1.1–1.3
Arsenal v EvertonArsenal XIEverton XISat 15:001–112%1–0 (20%), 0–0 (17%), 1–1 (12%)1.2–0.6
Coventry City v FulhamCoventry City XIFulham XISat 15:001–113%0–0 (14%), 0–1 (14%), 1–0 (13%)1.0–1.0
Chelsea v SpursChelsea XISpurs XISat 17:302–19%1–0 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%)1.9–0.8

Bookings bet builder for every Premier League game

The two players our card model rates most likely to be booked in each upcoming fixture, taken straight from the match preview builders.

Two most likely carded players for each upcoming Premier League fixture
Two bookings
Ipswich Town v Nott'm ForestIpswich Town XINott'm Forest XIFri 20:003%—

Today's Premier League predictions

Across 1 Premier League fixture the model projects an average of 2.46 goals, 6.6 corners and 3 cards per game. IPS v NFO is the highest-scoring projection at 2.46 goals and IPS v NFO is the most even at 0.09 goal supremacy.

Best player bets today

No player selections clear the current quality thresholds for this date.

All player fixed odds →

Best team bets today

No team selections clear the current quality thresholds for this date.

All team fixed odds →

Best match bets today

9 match selections clear the thresholds. The strongest is IPS v NFO — Total match corners BET at 1.833, Opportunity Score 73.

All Premier League matches →

Today's best bets

The highest-rated selections across every market, ranked by Opportunity Score.

Player markets

Shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls and passes priced player by player.

Team & match markets

Goals, corners and cards for teams and matches, de-margined against the model.

Match previews & lineups

This week's fixtures with predicted XIs and the three best uncorrelated bets per game.

Today's football predictions, priced by a model

Most football predictions online are opinions dressed up as tips. Ours start from a number: every Premier League match is simulated thousands of times, so each prediction on this page — match result, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, correct score ranges, goalscorers and cards — carries an explicit probability rather than a hunch.

We then strip the overround out of the bookmaker's odds to get the fair price, and only publish a bet when the model's probability beats that fair price by enough to clear our confidence bar. If there's no edge, there's no tip — which is why some fixtures carry three recommendations and others carry none.

Premier League betting tips for every market

The match result is only one way into a game. Corners, cards and player shots often price less efficiently than the 1X2, so our boards cover them all: team corners and totals, booking points and player card chances, anytime and first goalscorer, shots and shots on target, tackles, fouls and passes.

Spread bettors get the same projections expressed as buy and sell prices against the live Spreadex lines — player performances, goal minutes, card minutes and team supremacy — with the model's fair value shown next to the market's, so the size of the disagreement is visible before you bet.

How we calculate today's Premier League tips

Each projection is built from historical Premier League performance across last season and this season weighted by sample size, opponent strength tiers and what those opponents concede in each market, home and away venue effects, predicted lineups and expected minutes, player and team form adjusted for schedule strength, and head-to-head history decayed by season.

A Monte Carlo simulation of the fixture then produces full probability distributions, we remove the bookmaker margin to get fair odds, and expected value is measured against the live price. Only selections clearing our expected value, confidence and Opportunity Score thresholds are published.

How to use this week's Premier League tips

Start with the best bets board above, then use the player projection tables for the gameweek's likeliest scorers, first scorers and bookings, and open the match previews for the full picture: predicted lineups, team news, referee tendencies and the three best uncorrelated bets per fixture. Every selection links back to the market board where its price was captured, so you can check it's still available before staking.

Prices move and lineups change. We re-capture odds and refresh projections throughout the day, and matches drop off the boards at kick-off — so the tips you see here are always for fixtures still to be played. Please bet responsibly: our projections are probabilities, not certainties, and only stake what you can afford to lose.

Premier League tips FAQs

What are the best Premier League bets today?

The highest-rated selections for today's fixtures are listed at the top of this page, ranked by Opportunity Score — the combination of expected value, model confidence and price freshness. The player tables show the most likely goalscorers, first goalscorers and bookings across the next three days of fixtures.

Are these Premier League betting tips free?

Yes. Every tip, prediction and projection on Exclusive Free Bets is free to read, with no account or subscription needed.

How are your Premier League tips chosen?

Each fixture is simulated thousands of times from player and team form, predicted lineups and fixture difficulty. Bookmaker prices are de-margined into fair probabilities and compared with the model; only selections with a positive edge, adequate confidence and fresh prices are published.

What does expected value mean?

Expected value is the average profit per £1 staked if the model's probability is correct. A +22% EV selection returns 22p per £1 on average over a large sample; it does not mean the bet wins 22% more often.

What are fair odds?

Fair odds are the price that would exactly match the model's probability with no bookmaker margin. Comparing fair odds with the live price shows how much of an edge, if any, the bet carries.

Which Premier League betting markets do you cover?

Match result, double chance, draw no bet, both teams to score, over and under goals, corners, cards and booking points, team totals, anytime and first goalscorer, and player shots, tackles, fouls and passes — in both fixed odds and spread betting form.

What is the difference between fixed odds and spread tips?

Fixed-odds tips win or lose a set amount at quoted odds. Spread tips win or lose more depending on how right or wrong the outcome is versus the spread — the same projections power both, but the risk profile is different.

Do predicted lineups affect the tips?

Yes. Player selections are conditional on the player starting and require acceptable lineup confidence, and team and match markets are adjusted for availability.

How often are the tips updated?

Prices and projections are re-captured regularly throughout the day. Once a match kicks off it drops out of the boards automatically and returns when new fixtures are priced.

Do you cover leagues other than the Premier League?

No — Exclusive Free Bets models the Premier League exclusively, which keeps every projection focused on the competition we know best.

What makes a Premier League tip qualify

A selection needs positive expected value after margin is removed, sufficient projection confidence, and a price that is still available at mainstream bookmakers. Tips that only exist at a single outlier price are excluded.

Using Opportunity Score

Opportunity Score is a single 0–100 ranking that keeps a small edge on a well-modelled market above a large edge on a thin one. Work down the list rather than chasing the biggest headline percentage.

Free bets and today's tips

Value bets and free bets compound: taking a qualifying tip with a bookmaker's welcome offer converts part of the stake into a bonus. Our free bets pages list the current UK sign-up offers alongside their wagering terms.