£
ExclusiveFreeBets
.com

BM Duckett betting stats, splits & projections

Batter

Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.

Record by format

Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.

overallFIRST_CLASS10280121109450.172.210.164.3HIGH
overallTEST443243367241.688.312.157.4HIGH
overallT20862352159230.9147.721.129.1HIGH
overallODI24106598846.3107.814.545.1HIGH
overallHUNDRED47135196133.8140.620.634.4HIGH
overallLIST_A714512620.7115.116.746.8MEDIUM
overallFIRST_CLASS18010023.350.0MEDIUM

Why we like it

Splits where BM Duckett scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.

  • Opposition: Warwickshire (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    1208 runs off 1760 balls in 10 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 68.6 vs 72.2 overall, average 60.4 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Opposition: Derbyshire (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    1058 runs off 1294 balls in 10 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 81.8 vs 72.2 overall, average 88.2 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Opposition: Worcestershire (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    764 runs off 868 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 88.0 vs 72.2 overall, average 76.4 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Opposition: Glamorgan (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    486 runs off 822 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 59.1 vs 72.2 overall, average 81.0 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Opposition: Durham (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    552 runs off 760 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 72.6 vs 72.2 overall, average 69.0 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Opposition: Pakistan (TEST)HIGH sample

    652 runs off 727 balls in 8 TEST matches — strike rate 89.7 vs 88.3 overall, average 50.2 vs 41.6 overall.

Risks

Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.

  • Opposition: Yorkshire (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    552 runs off 866 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 63.7 vs 72.2 overall, average 34.5 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Opposition: Australia (TEST)HIGH sample

    523 runs off 639 balls in 10 TEST matches — strike rate 81.8 vs 88.3 overall, average 27.5 vs 41.6 overall.

  • Opposition: Hampshire (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    316 runs off 482 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 65.6 vs 72.2 overall, average 22.6 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Opposition: Somerset (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    338 runs off 454 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 74.4 vs 72.2 overall, average 24.1 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Opposition: Essex (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample

    234 runs off 410 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 57.1 vs 72.2 overall, average 16.7 vs 50.1 overall.

  • Venue: Lord's, London (TEST)HIGH sample

    535 runs off 680 balls in 7 TEST matches — strike rate 78.7 vs 88.3 overall, average 44.6 vs 41.6 overall.

Current projections

Sri Lanka v England
ODI
51.6 runs
median 38 · 90th percentile 126 · plays 89% · 43 balls expected

Against each opponent

Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.

WarwickshireFIRST_CLASS101208176060.468.69.766.9HIGH
DerbyshireFIRST_CLASS101058129488.281.812.860.9HIGH
IndiaTEST1080595042.484.712.860.0HIGH
WorcestershireFIRST_CLASS876486876.488.010.653.5HIGH
YorkshireFIRST_CLASS855286634.563.79.269.3HIGH
MiddlesexFIRST_CLASS657483857.468.58.663.5HIGH
GlamorganFIRST_CLASS448682281.059.17.168.6HIGH
DurhamFIRST_CLASS655276069.072.610.865.3HIGH
SurreyFIRST_CLASS2490736245.066.68.260.1HIGH
PakistanTEST865272750.289.711.355.6HIGH
LancashireFIRST_CLASS646467246.469.010.465.8HIGH
New ZealandTEST857765038.588.812.357.8HIGH
AustraliaTEST1052363927.581.810.057.6HIGH
LeicestershireFIRST_CLASS651861286.384.611.457.8HIGH
HampshireFIRST_CLASS831648222.665.69.168.5HIGH
SomersetFIRST_CLASS833845424.174.410.665.2HIGH
AustraliaODI647041978.3112.214.140.1HIGH
EssexFIRST_CLASS823441016.757.18.373.7HIGH
KentFIRST_CLASS416824021.070.010.872.5MEDIUM
Sri LankaTEST318620631.090.310.257.3MEDIUM
West IndiesODI621219935.3106.513.144.2MEDIUM
SussexFIRST_CLASS621219426.5109.317.557.7MEDIUM
LeicestershireT201028219031.3148.421.125.3MEDIUM
West IndiesTEST317818944.594.215.355.0MEDIUM
Southern BraveHUNDRED926318829.2139.921.839.4MEDIUM
IrelandTEST1182178182.0102.214.052.8MEDIUM
DurhamT20724016148.0149.119.324.8MEDIUM
DerbyshireT20725115241.8165.125.721.7MEDIUM
PakistanT20723314646.6159.622.622.6MEDIUM
South AfricaODI79713713.970.89.562.8MEDIUM
ZimbabweTEST1140133140.0105.316.554.1MEDIUM
IrelandODI2155127155.0122.016.540.2MEDIUM
Northern SuperchargersHUNDRED519312696.5153.223.028.6MEDIUM
London SpiritHUNDRED517311334.6153.123.930.1LOW
WorcestershireT20514811149.3133.316.228.8LOW
IndiaODI313110643.7123.622.650.0LOW
Welsh FireHUNDRED41369868.0138.820.432.7LOW
Birmingham BearsT2061679527.8175.829.536.8LOW
Manchester OriginalsHUNDRED51389246.0150.021.731.5LOW
LancashireT2071209117.1131.917.634.1LOW
YorkshireT2041329144.0145.122.034.1LOW
Trent RocketsHUNDRED71129016.0124.415.641.1LOW
Oval InvinciblesHUNDRED41208830.0136.418.231.8LOW
NorthamptonshireFIRST_CLASS2788639.090.716.362.8LOW
West IndiesT2041298032.3161.322.522.5LOW
Birmingham PhoenixHUNDRED4946723.5140.320.940.3LOW
Melbourne RenegadesT202886344.0139.717.528.6LOW
LeicestershireLIST_A1866186.0141.021.336.1LOW
IndiaT205975819.4167.231.037.9LOW
BangladeshT203595219.7113.513.528.8LOW
Sydney SixersT203914930.3185.730.628.6LOW
Sydney ThunderT201674967.0136.718.432.7LOW
Sunrisers LeedsHUNDRED1644764.0136.219.125.5LOW
Melbourne StarsT201514251.0121.411.933.3LOW
SurreyT2015337—143.221.629.7LOW
Multan SultansT201473247.0146.921.934.4LOW

Bowling

MiddlesexFIRST_CLASS843022.115.0LOW
DurhamFIRST_CLASS363405.7—LOW
YorkshireFIRST_CLASS362804.7—LOW

By venue

Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.

Trent Bridge, NottinghamFIRST_CLASS564396610050.072.110.163.7HIGH
Edgbaston, BirminghamFIRST_CLASS6814117067.869.69.466.3HIGH
County Ground, DerbyFIRST_CLASS4684792114.086.413.959.3HIGH
Lord's, LondonFIRST_CLASS450076262.565.67.663.5HIGH
Lord's, LondonTEST753568044.678.79.459.3HIGH
Grace Road, LeicesterFIRST_CLASS651861286.384.611.457.8HIGH
Trent Bridge, NottinghamTEST343642387.2103.117.054.4HIGH
Kennington Oval, LondonTEST431835445.489.811.660.2HIGH
Multan Cricket StadiumTEST334034968.097.412.351.9HIGH
Headingley, LeedsTEST325132850.276.510.459.8HIGH
The Rose Bowl, SouthamptonFIRST_CLASS423431429.374.510.864.3HIGH
North Marine Road Ground, ScarboroughFIRST_CLASS217629244.060.38.970.5MEDIUM
Trent Bridge, NottinghamT201546827536.0170.226.224.7MEDIUM
Edgbaston, BirminghamHUNDRED1337022633.6163.727.034.1MEDIUM
Sophia Gardens, CardiffHUNDRED1030522043.6138.617.325.5MEDIUM
Rawalpindi Cricket StadiumTEST217120942.881.810.559.8MEDIUM
Trent BridgeT201328220825.6135.618.834.6MEDIUM
Trent Bridge, NottinghamHUNDRED824819131.0129.819.939.8MEDIUM
Basin Reserve, WellingtonTEST213418433.572.85.454.9MEDIUM
County Ground, BristolODI2214169214.0126.617.238.5MEDIUM
Saurashtra Cricket Association Stadium, RajkotTEST115716678.594.615.156.6MEDIUM
Nevill Ground, Tunbridge WellsFIRST_CLASS211216228.069.19.971.6MEDIUM
National Stadium, KarachiT20822715532.4146.520.627.7MEDIUM
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-StreetFIRST_CLASS210815254.071.111.869.7MEDIUM
County Ground, ChelmsfordFIRST_CLASS28815022.058.76.773.3MEDIUM
Gaddafi Stadium, LahoreODI1165143165.0115.414.033.6MEDIUM
Trent Bridge, NottinghamODI214314071.5102.112.942.1MEDIUM
Old Trafford, ManchesterTEST312413831.089.911.652.9MEDIUM
County Ground, TauntonFIRST_CLASS210212425.582.311.364.5MEDIUM
National Stadium, KarachiTEST1108115108.093.912.251.3LOW
Trent Bridge, NottinghamLIST_A413811034.5125.519.143.6LOW
Melbourne Cricket GroundT20313810546.0131.414.332.4LOW
The John Fretwell Sporting Complex, NettleworthFIRST_CLASS24410422.042.33.876.9LOW
EdgbastonT20413110165.5129.716.831.7LOW
Lord's, LondonODI2779538.581.18.455.8LOW
Bay Oval, Mount MaunganuiTEST11099354.5117.219.451.6LOW
County Ground, HoveFIRST_CLASS2629231.067.48.769.6LOW
Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal, HyderabadTEST1829041.091.115.658.9LOW
County Ground, NorthamptonFIRST_CLASS2788639.090.716.362.8LOW
Kennington Oval, LondonHUNDRED3998533.0116.515.340.0LOW
Edgbaston, BirminghamTEST3848516.898.814.151.8LOW
The Cooper Associates County Ground, TauntonFIRST_CLASS2488424.057.19.576.2LOW
Hagley Oval, ChristchurchTEST1737936.592.413.962.0LOW
Sydney Cricket GroundTEST1697834.588.514.156.4LOW
The Rose Bowl, SouthamptonHUNDRED4947623.5123.719.742.1LOW
Kensington Oval, Bridgetown, BarbadosODI1717371.097.39.641.1LOW
Grace RoadT2021007250.0138.916.718.1LOW
New Close County Cricket Ground, Newport, Isle-of-WightFIRST_CLASS238649.559.49.475.0LOW
Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, DharamsalaTEST1296314.546.06.377.8LOW
Old Trafford, ManchesterHUNDRED4846128.0137.719.739.3LOW
Perth StadiumTEST1496024.581.711.763.3LOW
Headingley, LeedsHUNDRED3865943.0145.820.330.5LOW
Barabati Stadium, CuttackODI1655565.0118.218.243.6LOW
Riverside Ground, Chester-le-StreetT203635121.0123.517.637.3LOW
County Ground, New Road, WorcesterT202685068.0136.016.028.0LOW
Grace Road, LeicesterT202895089.0178.030.020.0LOW
Manuka Oval, CanberraT201674967.0136.718.432.7LOW
Edgbaston, BirminghamODI1604760.0127.714.931.9LOW
Kennington Oval, LondonODI1584658.0126.117.443.5LOW
The Rose Bowl, SouthamptonT201844684.0182.626.117.4LOW
Lord's, LondonHUNDRED2654332.5151.220.932.6LOW
Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, VisakhapatnamTEST1494324.5114.023.360.5LOW
Gaddafi Stadium, LahoreT203664133.0161.024.426.8LOW
County GroundT201644064.0160.020.015.0LOW
Shere Bangla National Stadium, MirpurT202393919.5100.010.333.3LOW
Mangaung Oval, BloemfonteinODI2233711.562.22.756.8LOW
JSCA International Stadium Complex, RanchiTEST1263613.072.28.358.3LOW
County Ground, New Road, WorcesterFIRST_CLASS210345.029.40.076.5LOW
The Rose Bowl, SouthamptonODI1313331.093.918.260.6LOW
Headingley, LeedsODI2373218.5115.618.856.3LOW
Edgbaston, BirminghamT202613230.5190.628.131.3LOW
Adelaide OvalTEST1333216.5103.118.856.3LOW
Melbourne Cricket GroundTEST1363118.0116.116.161.3LOW
Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, North Sound, AntiguaODI2233011.576.713.366.7LOW

Bowling

Trent Bridge, NottinghamFIRST_CLASS18010023.350.0MEDIUM

By country

Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.

UnknownFIRST_CLASS10280121109450.172.210.164.3HIGH
UnknownTEST423072346341.588.712.257.2HIGH
UnknownT20651770116430.0152.122.329.0HIGH
UnknownODI24106598846.3107.814.545.1HIGH
UnknownHUNDRED47135196133.8140.620.634.4HIGH
United KingdomT202158242834.2136.017.829.2HIGH
PakistanTEST217120942.881.810.559.8MEDIUM
UnknownLIST_A714512620.7115.116.746.8MEDIUM

Bowling

UnknownFIRST_CLASS18010023.350.0MEDIUM

By match phase

Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.

old_ballFIRST_CLASS906122846454.772.39.963.2HIGH
new_ballFIRST_CLASS841890263039.471.910.967.6HIGH
old_ballTEST301707191241.689.311.453.6HIGH
new_ballTEST431536176041.587.312.961.5HIGH
middleT2055123587435.3141.317.723.7HIGH
powerplayT206688756830.6156.226.238.0HIGH
middleODI1558454044.9108.112.439.1HIGH
powerplayHUNDRED4464046037.6139.122.842.4HIGH
powerplayODI2245642850.7106.517.154.0HIGH
middleHUNDRED2961142338.2144.419.125.8HIGH
deathT201823015019.2153.321.326.7MEDIUM
middleLIST_A614512524.2116.016.846.4MEDIUM
deathHUNDRED101007814.3128.215.434.6LOW

Bowling

old_ballFIRST_CLASS1207603.8—LOW
new_ballFIRST_CLASS602422.412.0LOW

Against pace and spin

Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.

PACEFIRST_CLASS1025672817245.769.49.765.3HIGH
PACETEST432202256239.385.912.159.3HIGH
SPINFIRST_CLASS681896229263.282.711.861.5HIGH
SPINTEST2282588145.893.612.352.9HIGH
PACET2080109077527.3140.619.932.8HIGH
SPINT2065108370831.9153.021.825.3HIGH
UNKNOWNFIRST_CLASS1644463074.070.59.560.6HIGH
PACEHUNDRED4587862336.6140.922.038.7HIGH
PACEODI2462559769.4104.715.449.9HIGH
SPINODI1638431842.7120.813.833.3HIGH
SPINHUNDRED3141430027.6138.018.026.7HIGH
UNKNOWNTEST1321622954.094.312.252.4MEDIUM
UNKNOWNT201817910989.5164.225.727.5LOW
SPINLIST_A51087654.0142.122.438.2LOW
UNKNOWNODI7567311.276.79.657.5LOW
PACELIST_A533448.375.09.161.4LOW
UNKNOWNHUNDRED5593859.0155.318.426.3LOW

How these splits are used

The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.