NF Kelly betting stats, splits & projections
Batter
Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.
Record by format
Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.
| overall | FIRST_CLASS | 112 | 8156 | 14112 | 42.0 | 57.8 | 7.9 | 71.7 | HIGH |
| overall | T20 | 83 | 1988 | 1557 | 26.9 | 127.7 | 17.5 | 38.7 | HIGH |
| overall | LIST_A | 4 | 199 | 240 | 49.8 | 82.9 | 9.6 | 52.5 | MEDIUM |
| overall | ODI | 3 | 49 | 60 | 16.3 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 66.7 | LOW |
| overall | FIRST_CLASS | 96 | 108 | 0 | 6.8 | — | LOW |
| overall | T20 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 5.5 | 5.5 | LOW |
Why we like it
Splits where NF Kelly scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.
- Opposition: Central Stags (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1874 runs off 3034 balls in 20 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 61.8 vs 57.8 overall, average 52.1 vs 42.0 overall.
- Opposition: Otago Volts (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1542 runs off 2264 balls in 12 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 68.1 vs 57.8 overall, average 77.1 vs 42.0 overall.
- Venue: University Oval, Dunedin (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1882 runs off 2884 balls in 14 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 65.3 vs 57.8 overall, average 94.1 vs 42.0 overall.
- Venue: Colin Maiden Park (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
222 runs off 514 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 43.2 vs 57.8 overall, average 55.5 vs 42.0 overall.
- Venue: Cobham Oval, Whangarei (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
224 runs off 494 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 45.3 vs 57.8 overall, average 56.0 vs 42.0 overall.
- Venue: Saxton Oval (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
282 runs off 460 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 61.3 vs 57.8 overall, average 70.5 vs 42.0 overall.
Risks
Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.
- Opposition: Canterbury (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1036 runs off 1900 balls in 20 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 54.5 vs 57.8 overall, average 25.9 vs 42.0 overall.
- Opposition: Essex (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
194 runs off 352 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 55.1 vs 57.8 overall, average 32.3 vs 42.0 overall.
- Venue: Basin Reserve, Wellington (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1006 runs off 1532 balls in 16 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 65.7 vs 57.8 overall, average 33.5 vs 42.0 overall.
- Venue: Cello Basin Reserve (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
694 runs off 1214 balls in 14 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 57.2 vs 57.8 overall, average 26.7 vs 42.0 overall.
- Venue: McLean Park, Napier (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
286 runs off 580 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 49.3 vs 57.8 overall, average 35.8 vs 42.0 overall.
- Venue: Mainpower Oval, Rangiora (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
180 runs off 446 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 40.4 vs 57.8 overall, average 22.5 vs 42.0 overall.
Current projections
Against each opponent
Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.
| Central Stags | FIRST_CLASS | 20 | 1874 | 3034 | 52.1 | 61.8 | 7.9 | 69.0 | HIGH |
| Auckland Aces | FIRST_CLASS | 22 | 1474 | 2898 | 36.9 | 50.9 | 6.6 | 73.0 | HIGH |
| Otago Volts | FIRST_CLASS | 12 | 1542 | 2264 | 77.1 | 68.1 | 9.6 | 65.7 | HIGH |
| Northern Districts | FIRST_CLASS | 20 | 1150 | 2176 | 35.9 | 52.8 | 7.4 | 75.4 | HIGH |
| Canterbury | FIRST_CLASS | 20 | 1036 | 1900 | 25.9 | 54.5 | 7.3 | 75.3 | HIGH |
| Wellington Firebirds | FIRST_CLASS | 8 | 558 | 938 | 46.5 | 59.5 | 9.4 | 73.1 | HIGH |
| Yorkshire | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 242 | 398 | 121.0 | 60.8 | 9.0 | 70.4 | HIGH |
| Essex | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 194 | 352 | 32.3 | 55.1 | 8.5 | 76.7 | HIGH |
| Canterbury | T20 | 15 | 405 | 301 | 28.9 | 134.6 | 18.3 | 38.2 | HIGH |
| Auckland | T20 | 14 | 303 | 260 | 23.3 | 116.5 | 14.2 | 41.2 | MEDIUM |
| Central Districts | T20 | 13 | 344 | 240 | 28.7 | 143.3 | 21.7 | 37.5 | MEDIUM |
| Northern Districts | T20 | 8 | 231 | 188 | 33.0 | 122.9 | 16.0 | 38.8 | MEDIUM |
| Wellington | T20 | 7 | 194 | 147 | 32.3 | 132.0 | 21.1 | 43.5 | MEDIUM |
| Warwickshire | LIST_A | 1 | 86 | 104 | 86.0 | 82.7 | 9.6 | 51.0 | LOW |
| Otago | T20 | 7 | 150 | 103 | 25.0 | 145.6 | 23.3 | 42.7 | LOW |
| Glamorgan | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 56 | 98 | 14.0 | 57.1 | 10.2 | 73.5 | LOW |
| Lancashire | T20 | 2 | 78 | 73 | 78.0 | 106.8 | 9.6 | 30.1 | LOW |
| Nottinghamshire | LIST_A | 1 | 53 | 69 | 53.0 | 76.8 | 5.8 | 49.3 | LOW |
| Somerset | LIST_A | 1 | 60 | 65 | 60.0 | 92.3 | 13.8 | 56.9 | LOW |
| Pakistan | ODI | 3 | 49 | 60 | 16.3 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 66.7 | LOW |
| South Africa | T20 | 5 | 57 | 56 | 14.3 | 101.8 | 12.5 | 37.5 | LOW |
| Nottinghamshire | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 30 | 54 | 15.0 | 55.6 | 7.4 | 74.1 | LOW |
| Worcestershire | T20 | 1 | 61 | 42 | — | 145.2 | 16.7 | 26.2 | LOW |
| Yorkshire | T20 | 2 | 45 | 34 | 22.5 | 132.4 | 20.6 | 38.2 | LOW |
| Bangladesh | T20 | 2 | 40 | 32 | 20.0 | 125.0 | 18.8 | 37.5 | LOW |
Bowling
| Auckland Aces | FIRST_CLASS | 60 | 40 | 0 | 4.0 | — | LOW |
| Central Stags | FIRST_CLASS | 36 | 44 | 0 | 7.3 | — | LOW |
By venue
Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.
| University Oval, Dunedin | FIRST_CLASS | 14 | 1882 | 2884 | 94.1 | 65.3 | 9.1 | 68.6 | HIGH |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | FIRST_CLASS | 16 | 1006 | 1532 | 33.5 | 65.7 | 10.2 | 68.7 | HIGH |
| Cello Basin Reserve | FIRST_CLASS | 14 | 694 | 1214 | 26.7 | 57.2 | 8.6 | 75.3 | HIGH |
| Grace Road, Leicester | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 492 | 808 | 49.2 | 60.9 | 9.4 | 72.0 | HIGH |
| Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 452 | 774 | 37.7 | 58.4 | 6.2 | 64.3 | HIGH |
| Mainpower Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 448 | 734 | 37.3 | 61.0 | 6.3 | 68.7 | HIGH |
| Molyneux Park, Alexandra | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 414 | 710 | 41.4 | 58.3 | 7.9 | 70.7 | HIGH |
| University of Otago Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 350 | 638 | 35.0 | 54.9 | 6.9 | 72.7 | HIGH |
| McLean Park, Napier | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 286 | 580 | 35.8 | 49.3 | 6.2 | 73.8 | HIGH |
| Kennards Hire Community Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 298 | 574 | 49.7 | 51.9 | 7.3 | 74.2 | HIGH |
| Fitzherbert Park | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 304 | 568 | 38.0 | 53.5 | 6.7 | 71.8 | HIGH |
| Colin Maiden Park | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 222 | 514 | 55.5 | 43.2 | 5.1 | 77.4 | HIGH |
| Cobham Oval, Whangarei | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 224 | 494 | 56.0 | 45.3 | 5.3 | 75.3 | HIGH |
| Saxton Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 282 | 460 | 70.5 | 61.3 | 9.1 | 70.4 | HIGH |
| Mainpower Oval, Rangiora | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 180 | 446 | 22.5 | 40.4 | 6.7 | 84.3 | HIGH |
| Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 210 | 418 | 105.0 | 50.2 | 7.2 | 76.6 | HIGH |
| Grace Road, Leicester | LIST_A | 3 | 199 | 238 | 66.3 | 83.6 | 9.7 | 52.1 | MEDIUM |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | T20 | 14 | 260 | 230 | 18.6 | 113.0 | 13.9 | 45.7 | MEDIUM |
| Saxton Oval, Nelson | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 156 | 218 | 39.0 | 71.6 | 8.3 | 63.3 | MEDIUM |
| Seddon Park | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 98 | 216 | 16.3 | 45.4 | 3.7 | 77.8 | MEDIUM |
| Queen's Park, Invercargill | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 86 | 140 | 43.0 | 61.4 | 11.4 | 72.9 | MEDIUM |
| University Oval | T20 | 5 | 152 | 122 | 50.7 | 124.6 | 14.8 | 36.9 | MEDIUM |
| Grace Road, Leicester | T20 | 5 | 154 | 121 | 51.3 | 127.3 | 15.7 | 32.2 | MEDIUM |
| Hagley Oval, Christchurch | T20 | 6 | 166 | 119 | 33.2 | 139.5 | 18.5 | 39.5 | LOW |
| Queen's Park | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 42 | 96 | 10.5 | 43.8 | 6.3 | 83.3 | LOW |
| Basin Reserve | T20 | 3 | 141 | 94 | 47.0 | 150.0 | 25.5 | 41.5 | LOW |
| Molyneux Park | T20 | 4 | 110 | 88 | 27.5 | 125.0 | 15.9 | 38.6 | LOW |
| Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui | T20 | 3 | 106 | 73 | 53.0 | 145.2 | 19.2 | 27.4 | LOW |
| Seddon Park | T20 | 3 | 97 | 67 | 32.3 | 144.8 | 22.4 | 41.8 | LOW |
| Eden Park Outer Oval | T20 | 3 | 87 | 65 | 29.0 | 133.8 | 20.0 | 38.5 | LOW |
| Seddon Park, Hamilton | T20 | 3 | 69 | 63 | 23.0 | 109.5 | 14.3 | 41.3 | LOW |
| University Oval, Dunedin | T20 | 4 | 82 | 57 | 27.3 | 143.9 | 19.3 | 29.8 | LOW |
| Trent Bridge, Nottingham | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 30 | 54 | 15.0 | 55.6 | 7.4 | 74.1 | LOW |
| John Davies Oval, Queenstown | T20 | 2 | 66 | 46 | 33.0 | 143.5 | 19.6 | 34.8 | LOW |
| Hagley Oval | T20 | 2 | 63 | 45 | 31.5 | 140.0 | 22.2 | 33.3 | LOW |
| County Ground, Chelmsford | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 0 | 40 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0 | LOW |
| Fitzherbert Park, Palmerston North | T20 | 2 | 66 | 32 | 33.0 | 206.3 | 40.6 | 31.3 | LOW |
| Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland | T20 | 3 | 20 | 31 | 6.7 | 64.5 | 6.5 | 51.6 | LOW |
| Old Trafford, Manchester | T20 | 1 | 29 | 30 | 29.0 | 96.7 | 6.7 | 33.3 | LOW |
Bowling
| Kennards Hire Community Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 60 | 40 | 0 | 4.0 | — | LOW |
| University Oval, Dunedin | FIRST_CLASS | 36 | 44 | 0 | 7.3 | — | LOW |
By country
Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.
| Unknown | FIRST_CLASS | 112 | 8156 | 14112 | 42.0 | 57.8 | 7.9 | 71.7 | HIGH |
| Unknown | T20 | 83 | 1988 | 1557 | 26.9 | 127.7 | 17.5 | 38.7 | HIGH |
| Unknown | LIST_A | 4 | 199 | 240 | 49.8 | 82.9 | 9.6 | 52.5 | MEDIUM |
| Unknown | ODI | 3 | 49 | 60 | 16.3 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 66.7 | LOW |
Bowling
| Unknown | FIRST_CLASS | 96 | 108 | 0 | 6.8 | — | LOW |
By match phase
Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.
| old_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 112 | 7480 | 12892 | 43.0 | 58.0 | 7.9 | 71.6 | HIGH |
| new_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 66 | 676 | 1220 | 33.8 | 55.4 | 7.4 | 72.5 | HIGH |
| middle | T20 | 54 | 1027 | 810 | 27.0 | 126.8 | 14.3 | 31.7 | HIGH |
| powerplay | T20 | 69 | 737 | 602 | 28.3 | 122.4 | 20.3 | 50.2 | HIGH |
| middle | LIST_A | 4 | 164 | 205 | 54.7 | 80.0 | 8.8 | 52.7 | MEDIUM |
| death | T20 | 16 | 224 | 145 | 22.4 | 154.5 | 23.4 | 30.3 | MEDIUM |
| powerplay | ODI | 3 | 49 | 60 | 16.3 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 66.7 | LOW |
Bowling
| old_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 96 | 108 | 0 | 6.8 | — | LOW |
Against pace and spin
Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.
| PACE | FIRST_CLASS | 112 | 4220 | 7362 | 42.2 | 57.3 | 8.2 | 72.6 | HIGH |
| SPIN | FIRST_CLASS | 92 | 3032 | 5250 | 48.9 | 57.8 | 7.4 | 70.2 | HIGH |
| UNKNOWN | FIRST_CLASS | 54 | 904 | 1500 | 28.3 | 60.3 | 8.4 | 72.1 | HIGH |
| PACE | T20 | 79 | 1015 | 825 | 26.7 | 123.0 | 18.3 | 43.4 | HIGH |
| SPIN | T20 | 62 | 778 | 617 | 23.6 | 126.1 | 15.1 | 34.0 | HIGH |
| PACE | LIST_A | 3 | 117 | 132 | 117.0 | 88.6 | 12.9 | 54.5 | MEDIUM |
| UNKNOWN | T20 | 25 | 195 | 115 | 65.0 | 169.6 | 24.3 | 30.4 | LOW |
| SPIN | LIST_A | 4 | 82 | 108 | 27.3 | 75.9 | 5.6 | 50.0 | LOW |
| PACE | ODI | 3 | 49 | 60 | 16.3 | 81.7 | 15.0 | 66.7 | LOW |
How these splits are used
The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.