Arsenal vs Man City Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sun 29 Nov, 16:30 · Gameweek 12 · Arsenal (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
1–1
13% likely
Arsenal vs Man City betting tips, prediction and the latest Arsenal odds and Man City odds for Sun 29 Nov, 16:30 at Arsenal (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Arsenal vs Man City at Arsenal (home) and settles on ARS 37%, the draw 28% and MCI 34%, with 2.35 expected goals in the game and 1–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 47% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Arsenal vs Man City betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Arsenal vs Man City spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.35 | 2.00 | 0.0 4.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 18.1 | 18.0 | 12.0 25.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.0 10.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 12.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 2.85 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 17.7 | 16.0 | 11.0 25.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.08 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.3 | 0.0 | -4.0 7.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | -3.0 3.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.2 | 1.0 | -2.0 5.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.97 | -1.00 | -3.0 1.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 53 | 0 | 0.0 140.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 109 | 0 | 0.0 234.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 162 | 0 | 29.0 312.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -55 | 0 | -195.0 74.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Arsenal vs Man City odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS win | — | — | 37% | 2.67 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 28% | 3.51 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI win | — | — | 34% | 2.94 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 47% | 2.15 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 53% | 1.87 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS -1 goal handicap | — | — | 17% | 6.04 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI +1 goal handicap | — | — | 83% | 1.20 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS draw no bet | — | — | 52% | 1.91 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI draw no bet | — | — | 48% | 2.10 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS or draw | — | — | 66% | 1.52 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI or draw | — | — | 63% | 1.60 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS or MCI | — | — | 72% | 1.40 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS clean sheet | — | — | 33% | 3.04 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI clean sheet | — | — | 31% | 3.25 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS win to nil | — | — | 23% | 4.41 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MCI win to nil | — | — | 21% | 4.87 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
ARS & MCI player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes
No card projections published for this fixture yet.
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes
No goal projections published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–111.0%
Team news & model notes
Arsenal
Martinelli (u), Nelson (u), Saliba (i), G.Jesus (u), Hincapie (i), Tzolis (i)
Man City
Reijnders (u), Alleyne (u), Monga (u), Rodrigo (u), Mukasa (u)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 08:41:06 · no live prices captured
Arsenal vs Man City betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Arsenal vs Man City?
Our simulation makes Arsenal 37% to win, the draw 28% and Man City 34%, with 1–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Arsenal vs Man City?
1–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.21 for Arsenal and 1.14 for Man City. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Man City?
Both teams to score is 47% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.35.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Man City?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 41% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.35. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Arsenal vs Man City?
The model projects 8.0 match corners, making over 8.5 corners 40%. ARS and MCI corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Arsenal vs Man City?
We project 2.9 bookings in total, so over 2.5 cards is 53%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Arsenal vs Man City kick off?
Arsenal vs Man City kicks off Sun 29 Nov, 16:30 at Arsenal (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.