Bournemouth vs Sunderland Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 · Gameweek 7 · Bournemouth (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
1–1
12% likely
Bournemouth vs Sunderland betting tips, prediction and the latest Bournemouth odds and Sunderland odds for Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Bournemouth (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Bournemouth vs Sunderland at Bournemouth (home) and settles on BOU 47%, the draw 27% and SUN 25%, with 2.42 expected goals in the game and 1–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 47% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Recommended bet builders
Model-picked multi-leg selections for this fixture — always check the price with your bookmaker
Bookings bet builder
The three players our card model rates most likely to see a yellow in this fixture.
- —
1.MukieleSUN
Mukiele to be carded
Player to be Carded
23% modelled booking chance from 1.20 expected fouls
- —
- —
3.TruffertBOU
Truffert to be carded
Player to be Carded
21% modelled booking chance from 1.26 expected fouls
Combined price — · model chance 1.1%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Referee: C Pawson
47 matches on record · 22.6 fouls and 3.62 yellows a game (league average 21.96 fouls, 3.91 yellows)
Season by season
| 2026/2027 | 4 | 27.25 | 5 | 0.25 |
| 2025/2026 | 21 | 21.71 | 2.67 | 0.1 |
| 2024/2025 | 22 | 22.59 | 4.27 | 0.14 |
With these two clubs
- Bournemouth6 games · 10.83 fouls · 2.33 yellows
- Sunderland3 games · 8.67 fouls · 1.67 yellows
Players he has booked
No player in either predicted squad has been booked by him in the matches we hold card data for.
Player card history covers 22 of his matches across the last three Premier League seasons.
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.42 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 20.7 | 20.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.0 11.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 10.2 | 9.0 | 6.0 15.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 4.68 | 4.00 | 2.0 8.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 22.7 | 22.0 | 15.0 31.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.47 | 0.00 | -1.0 2.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 3.7 | 3.0 | -2.0 10.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 4.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.6 | 1.0 | -3.0 6.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.18 | 0.00 | -3.0 3.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 128 | 0 | 0.0 264.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 139 | 0 | 4.0 278.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 267 | 0 | 90.0 466.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -10 | 0 | -183.0 163.1 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Bournemouth vs Sunderland odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU win | — | — | 47% | 2.11 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 27% | 3.67 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN win | — | — | 25% | 3.95 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 47% | 2.13 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 53% | 1.89 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU -1 goal handicap | — | — | 23% | 4.27 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN +1 goal handicap | — | — | 77% | 1.31 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU draw no bet | — | — | 65% | 1.53 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN draw no bet | — | — | 35% | 2.87 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU or draw | — | — | 75% | 1.34 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN or draw | — | — | 53% | 1.90 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU or SUN | — | — | 73% | 1.37 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU clean sheet | — | — | 39% | 2.59 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN clean sheet | — | — | 24% | 4.11 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BOU win to nil | — | — | 29% | 3.49 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | SUN win to nil | — | — | 14% | 6.93 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
BOU & SUN player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes — carded prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its player card market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MukieleSUN | DEF | 23% | 1.20 | 84% | 25.4 | 12.0 / 16.0 | — | NO BET |
| XhakaSUN | MID | 22% | 0.82 | 89% | 21.3 | 15.0 / 19.0 | — | NO BET |
| TruffertBOU | DEF | 21% | 1.26 | 92% | 22.3 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| SmithBOU | DEF | 21% | 1.35 | 80% | 21.3 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| ReinildoSUN | DEF | 19% | 1.43 | 80% | 21.6 | 20.0 / 24.0 | — | NO BET |
| DansoSUN | DEF | 18% | 1.31 | 74% | 23.5 | 12.0 / 16.0 | — | NO BET |
| TavernierBOU | MID | 16% | 0.87 | 86% | 14.3 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| SadikiSUN | MID | 16% | 0.86 | 87% | 16.0 | 15.0 / 19.0 | — | NO BET |
| AdamsBOU | MID | 15% | 1.59 | 72% | 20.0 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| E.Le FéeSUN | MID | 15% | 0.87 | 92% | 14.8 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | NO BET |
| HillBOU | DEF | 14% | 0.84 | 83% | 15.3 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| SilvaBOU | DEF | 14% | 0.82 | 75% | 16.6 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes — anytime scorer prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its goalscorer market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EvanilsonBOU | FWD | 27% | 0.36 | 89% | 14.5 | 15.0 / 18.0 | — | NO BET |
| TavernierBOU | MID | 20% | 0.26 | 86% | 9.7 | 14.0 / 17.0 | — | SELL |
| RayanBOU | MID | 16% | 0.23 | 77% | 9.9 | 11.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| E.Le FéeSUN | MID | 10% | 0.12 | 92% | 4.8 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | SELL |
| ChristieBOU | MID | 9% | 0.15 | 65% | 4.8 | 6.0 / 9.0 | — | NO BET |
| IsidorSUN | FWD | 9% | 0.32 | 33% | 13.3 | 16.0 / 19.0 | — | SELL |
| KluivertBOU | MID | 8% | 0.17 | 51% | 5.1 | — | — | NO BET |
| SilvaBOU | DEF | 6% | 0.09 | 75% | 3.8 | 1.0 / 3.0 | — | NO BET |
| MukieleSUN | DEF | 5% | 0.07 | 84% | 3.0 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
| AdamsBOU | MID | 5% | 0.07 | 72% | 2.6 | 1.0 / 3.0 | — | NO BET |
| BrooksBOU | MID | 5% | 0.23 | 23% | 6.0 | 9.0 / 12.0 | — | SELL |
| N.AnguloSUN | MID | 5% | 0.07 | 71% | 1.7 | 8.0 / 11.0 | — | SELL |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–09.9%
Team news & model notes
Bournemouth
Milosavljević (i), Scott (i), Enes Ünal (u), Kroupi.Jr (i)
Sunderland
Danso (s), Ballard (i), Seelt (u), Masuaku (u), Mundle (i), Adingra (u)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 12:08:26 · no live prices captured
Bournemouth vs Sunderland betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Our simulation makes Bournemouth 47% to win, the draw 27% and Sunderland 25%, with 1–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
1–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.44 for Bournemouth and 0.98 for Sunderland. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Both teams to score is 47% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.42.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 43% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.42. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
The model projects 10.2 match corners, making over 10.5 corners 44%. BOU and SUN corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
We project 4.7 bookings in total, so over 4.5 cards is 49%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Bournemouth vs Sunderland kick off?
Bournemouth vs Sunderland kicks off Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Bournemouth (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.