Brentford vs Liverpool Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 · Gameweek 7 · Brentford (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
2–1
9% likely
Brentford vs Liverpool betting tips, prediction and the latest Brentford odds and Liverpool odds for Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 at Brentford (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Brentford vs Liverpool at Brentford (home) and settles on BRE 65%, the draw 20% and LIV 15%, with 3.30 expected goals in the game and 2–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 56% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Brentford vs Liverpool betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Brentford vs Liverpool spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Recommended bet builders
Model-picked multi-leg selections for this fixture — always check the price with your bookmaker
Bookings bet builder
The three players our card model rates most likely to see a yellow in this fixture.
- —
1.ThiagoBRE
Thiago to be carded
Player to be Carded
19% modelled booking chance from 1.87 expected fouls
- —
2.JaneltBRE
Janelt to be carded
Player to be Carded
18% modelled booking chance from 1.61 expected fouls
- —
3.KerkezLIV
Kerkez to be carded
Player to be Carded
17% modelled booking chance from 0.70 expected fouls
Combined price — · model chance 0.6%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Referee: J Brooks
33 matches on record · 21.48 fouls and 4.58 yellows a game (league average 21.94 fouls, 3.9 yellows)
Season by season
| 2026/2027 | 4 | 19.75 | 5.25 | 0.25 |
| 2025/2026 | 12 | 20.92 | 3.67 | 0.25 |
| 2024/2025 | 17 | 22.29 | 5.06 | 0.06 |
With these two clubs
- Brentford4 games · 9.75 fouls · 1.5 yellows
- Liverpool3 games · 9 fouls · 2.33 yellows
Players he has booked
No player in either predicted squad has been booked by him in the matches we hold card data for.
Player card history covers 16 of his matches across the last three Premier League seasons.
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.0 6.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 26.4 | 24.0 | 18.0 35.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 8.2 | 8.0 | 4.0 13.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 9.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 14.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 3.94 | 3.00 | 1.0 7.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 21.4 | 20.0 | 14.0 30.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.28 | 1.00 | -1.0 4.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.9 | 1.0 | -5.0 9.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.7 | 1.0 | -3.0 4.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.5 | 0.0 | -3.0 5.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.64 | 0.00 | -3.0 2.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 94 | 0 | 0.0 208.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 130 | 0 | 0.0 262.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 224 | 0 | 68.0 403.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -36 | 0 | -194.0 116.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Brentford vs Liverpool odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE win | — | — | 65% | 1.54 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 20% | 5.11 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV win | — | — | 15% | 6.48 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 56% | 1.79 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 44% | 2.27 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE -1 goal handicap | — | — | 43% | 2.35 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV +1 goal handicap | — | — | 57% | 1.74 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE draw no bet | — | — | 81% | 1.24 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV draw no bet | — | — | 19% | 5.21 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE or draw | — | — | 85% | 1.18 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV or draw | — | — | 35% | 2.86 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE or LIV | — | — | 80% | 1.24 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE clean sheet | — | — | 37% | 2.69 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV clean sheet | — | — | 11% | 8.83 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BRE win to nil | — | — | 33% | 3.06 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV win to nil | — | — | 7% | 14.58 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
BRE & LIV player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes — carded prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its player card market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ThiagoBRE | FWD | 19% | 1.87 | 92% | 19.7 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| JaneltBRE | MID | 18% | 1.61 | 78% | 22.2 | 19.0 / 23.0 | — | NO BET |
| KerkezLIV | DEF | 17% | 0.70 | 86% | 15.1 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| AjerBRE | DEF | 15% | 1.14 | 83% | 17.1 | 16.0 / 20.0 | — | NO BET |
| VirgilLIV | DEF | 14% | 0.36 | 95% | 10.1 | 9.0 / 13.0 | — | NO BET |
| Mac AllisterLIV | MID | 14% | 0.81 | 83% | 12.9 | 17.0 / 21.0 | — | SELL |
| JacquetLIV | DEF | 12% | 0.58 | 77% | 11.6 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| AraujoLIV | DEF | 11% | 0.57 | 71% | 10.7 | 17.0 / 21.0 | — | SELL |
| WirtzLIV | MID | 9% | 0.44 | 89% | 6.7 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | NO BET |
| MunozLIV | MID | 9% | 0.63 | 68% | 9.3 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | NO BET |
| DioufBRE | DEF | 9% | 0.89 | 69% | 12.8 | 11.0 / 15.0 | — | NO BET |
| BarcolaLIV | MID | 9% | 0.57 | 74% | 8.0 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | NO BET |
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes — anytime scorer prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its goalscorer market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ThiagoBRE | FWD | 40% | 0.57 | 92% | 24.0 | 29.0 / 32.0 | — | SELL |
| AnthonyBRE | MID | 19% | 0.27 | 80% | 9.2 | 10.0 / 13.0 | — | NO BET |
| DannsLIV | FWD | 18% | 0.33 | 64% | 12.7 | — | — | NO BET |
| SchadeBRE | MID | 16% | 0.48 | 42% | 19.6 | 13.0 / 16.0 | — | NO BET |
| WirtzLIV | MID | 14% | 0.18 | 89% | 6.4 | 9.0 / 12.0 | — | SELL |
| Lewis-PotterBRE | MID | 13% | 0.16 | 86% | 6.1 | 6.0 / 9.0 | — | NO BET |
| Mac AllisterLIV | MID | 11% | 0.14 | 83% | 5.3 | 4.0 / 7.0 | — | NO BET |
| JaneltBRE | MID | 11% | 0.15 | 78% | 6.6 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
| MunozLIV | MID | 8% | 0.12 | 68% | 4.3 | 8.0 / 11.0 | — | SELL |
| BarcolaLIV | MID | 8% | 0.11 | 74% | 3.9 | 11.0 / 14.0 | — | SELL |
| AjerBRE | DEF | 7% | 0.09 | 83% | 4.2 | 2.0 / 4.0 | — | NO BET |
| YarmoliukBRE | MID | 7% | 0.10 | 72% | 2.9 | — | — | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 2–09.5%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
Team news & model notes
Brentford
Yarmoliuk (s), Janelt (s), Dasilva (i), Milambo (i), Furo (i)
Liverpool
C.Jones (u), Szoboszlai (i), Elliott (u), Ekitiké (i), Bradley (i), Jaros (i)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 10:44:47 · no live prices captured
Brentford vs Liverpool betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Brentford vs Liverpool?
Our simulation makes Brentford 65% to win, the draw 20% and Liverpool 15%, with 2–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Brentford vs Liverpool?
2–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 2.29 for Brentford and 1.01 for Liverpool. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score is 56% on the model, against a total goals projection of 3.30.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brentford vs Liverpool?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 62% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 3.30. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Brentford vs Liverpool?
The model projects 9.4 match corners, making over 9.5 corners 46%. BRE and LIV corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Brentford vs Liverpool?
We project 3.9 bookings in total, so over 3.5 cards is 54%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Brentford vs Liverpool kick off?
Brentford vs Liverpool kicks off Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 at Brentford (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.