Brighton vs Crystal Palace Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 · Gameweek 7 · Brighton (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
2–1
9% likely
Brighton vs Crystal Palace betting tips, prediction and the latest Brighton odds and Crystal Palace odds for Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Brighton (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Brighton vs Crystal Palace at Brighton (home) and settles on BHA 56%, the draw 23% and CRY 21%, with 2.91 expected goals in the game and 2–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 54% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Brighton vs Crystal Palace spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Recommended bet builders
Model-picked multi-leg selections for this fixture — always check the price with your bookmaker
Bookings bet builder
The three players our card model rates most likely to see a yellow in this fixture.
- —
1.YeremyCRY
Yeremy to be carded
Player to be Carded
15% modelled booking chance from 1.22 expected fouls
- —
2.KamadaCRY
Kamada to be carded
Player to be Carded
15% modelled booking chance from 1.46 expected fouls
- —
3.WhartonCRY
Wharton to be carded
Player to be Carded
14% modelled booking chance from 1.11 expected fouls
Combined price — · model chance 0.3%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Brighton
- 1VerbruggenGKP
- 2F.KadıoğluDEF
- 3De CuyperDEF
- 4VuskovicDEF
- 5BoscagliDEF
- 6DunkDEF
- 7GomezMID
- 8GroßMID
- 9AyariMID
- 10AndrésMID
- 11KostoulasFWD
Bench: Yalcouyé, Hinshelwood, Georginio, David
Doubts: Struijk, Yohanna
Out: Wieffer, Mitoma, Minteh, Tzimas, Ferguson, Azeez
Full Brighton predicted XI →Referee: R Jones
43 matches on record · 23.67 fouls and 4.12 yellows a game (league average 21.94 fouls, 3.9 yellows)
Season by season
| 2026/2027 | 3 | 31 | 3 | 0 |
| 2025/2026 | 18 | 21.06 | 4.17 | 0 |
| 2024/2025 | 22 | 24.82 | 4.23 | 0.18 |
With these two clubs
- Brighton4 games · 15 fouls · 2 yellows
- Crystal Palace6 games · 10 fouls · 2.17 yellows
Players he has booked
No player in either predicted squad has been booked by him in the matches we hold card data for.
Player card history covers 24 of his matches across the last three Premier League seasons.
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.91 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 23.4 | 23.0 | 16.0 32.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 8.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 13.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 13.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 3.34 | 3.00 | 1.0 6.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 19.0 | 17.0 | 12.0 27.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.83 | 1.00 | -1.0 3.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 5.2 | 4.0 | -2.0 12.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.6 | 2.0 | -1.0 7.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 3.1 | 3.0 | -1.0 7.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.03 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 94 | 0 | 0.0 210.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 96 | 0 | 0.0 214.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 190 | 0 | 48.0 358.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -2 | 0 | -148.0 140.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Brighton vs Crystal Palace odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA win | — | — | 56% | 1.78 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 23% | 4.32 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY win | — | — | 21% | 4.86 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 54% | 1.86 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 46% | 2.16 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA -1 goal handicap | — | — | 33% | 3.07 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY +1 goal handicap | — | — | 67% | 1.48 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA draw no bet | — | — | 73% | 1.37 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY draw no bet | — | — | 27% | 3.74 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA or draw | — | — | 79% | 1.26 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY or draw | — | — | 44% | 2.29 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA or CRY | — | — | 77% | 1.30 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA clean sheet | — | — | 36% | 2.77 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY clean sheet | — | — | 17% | 6.00 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA win to nil | — | — | 30% | 3.37 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CRY win to nil | — | — | 10% | 9.80 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
BHA & CRY player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes — carded prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its player card market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YeremyCRY | MID | 15% | 1.22 | 83% | 13.9 | 17.0 / 21.0 | — | SELL |
| KamadaCRY | MID | 15% | 1.46 | 86% | 16.6 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| WhartonCRY | MID | 14% | 1.11 | 89% | 13.7 | 16.0 / 20.0 | — | SELL |
| RichardsCRY | DEF | 13% | 0.59 | 92% | 11.7 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| KhalailiCRY | DEF | 12% | 1.06 | 72% | 15.5 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| LermaCRY | MID | 11% | 0.95 | 68% | 9.8 | 21.0 / 25.0 | — | SELL |
| GomezBHA | MID | 11% | 1.11 | 89% | 11.1 | 15.0 / 19.0 | — | SELL |
| CanvotCRY | DEF | 10% | 0.73 | 77% | 12.5 | 16.0 / 20.0 | — | SELL |
| MitchellCRY | DEF | 10% | 0.67 | 95% | 9.7 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| GroßBHA | MID | 10% | 0.60 | 83% | 9.5 | — | — | NO BET |
| F.KadıoğluBHA | DEF | 10% | 0.48 | 92% | 8.1 | — | — | NO BET |
| TimberCRY | MID | 10% | 0.97 | 74% | 11.6 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes — anytime scorer prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its goalscorer market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KostoulasBHA | FWD | 29% | 0.55 | 68% | 19.3 | 24.0 / 27.0 | — | SELL |
| YalcouyéBHA | MID | 26% | 0.50 | 65% | 17.3 | 9.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| GroßBHA | MID | 25% | 0.36 | 83% | 15.4 | — | — | NO BET |
| AyariBHA | MID | 23% | 0.35 | 77% | 14.4 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | NO BET |
| GomezBHA | MID | 20% | 0.26 | 89% | 10.8 | 13.0 / 16.0 | — | SELL |
| De CuyperBHA | DEF | 12% | 0.16 | 80% | 6.5 | 11.0 / 14.0 | — | SELL |
| Strand LarsenCRY | FWD | 12% | 0.16 | 80% | 6.6 | 16.0 / 19.0 | — | SELL |
| DunkBHA | DEF | 10% | 0.13 | 86% | 5.6 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
| VuskovicBHA | DEF | 9% | 0.13 | 75% | 5.6 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | NO BET |
| YeremyCRY | MID | 8% | 0.10 | 83% | 3.6 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | SELL |
| KamadaCRY | MID | 7% | 0.08 | 86% | 3.3 | 4.0 / 7.0 | — | NO BET |
| LermaCRY | MID | 7% | 0.10 | 68% | 3.1 | 1.0 / 3.0 | — | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–010.5%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.4%
Team news & model notes
Brighton
Howell (u), Tzimas (i), Yohanna (i), Igor (u), Watson (u), Wieffer (i)
Crystal Palace
Chadi Riad (i), Uche (u), Chilwell (i), Devenny (u), Sosa (u), Tomiyasu (i)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 09:13:17 · no live prices captured
Brighton vs Crystal Palace betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Our simulation makes Brighton 56% to win, the draw 23% and Crystal Palace 21%, with 2–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
2–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.87 for Brighton and 1.04 for Crystal Palace. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Both teams to score is 54% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.91.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 55% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.91. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
The model projects 8.3 match corners, making over 8.5 corners 44%. BHA and CRY corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Brighton vs Crystal Palace?
We project 3.3 bookings in total, so over 3.5 cards is 43%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Brighton vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Brighton vs Crystal Palace kicks off Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Brighton (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.