Brighton vs Newcastle Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 · Gameweek 12 · Brighton (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
1–1
12% likely
Brighton vs Newcastle betting tips, prediction and the latest Brighton odds and Newcastle odds for Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 at Brighton (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Brighton vs Newcastle at Brighton (home) and settles on BHA 48%, the draw 30% and NEW 23%, with 2.06 expected goals in the game and 1–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 38% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Brighton vs Newcastle betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Brighton vs Newcastle spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Brighton
- 1VerbruggenGKP
- 2F.KadıoğluDEF
- 3De CuyperDEF
- 4VuskovicDEF
- 5BoscagliDEF
- 6DunkDEF
- 7GomezMID
- 8GroßMID
- 9AyariMID
- 10AndrésMID
- 11KostoulasFWD
Bench: Yalcouyé, Hinshelwood, Georginio, David
Doubts: Struijk, Yohanna
Out: Wieffer, Mitoma, Minteh, Tzimas, Ferguson, Azeez
Full Brighton predicted XI →Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.06 | 2.00 | 0.0 4.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 25.1 | 23.0 | 17.0 34.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.0 12.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 10.2 | 9.0 | 6.0 15.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.0 7.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 20.1 | 18.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.50 | 0.00 | -1.0 2.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 7.3 | 6.0 | 0.0 14.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.7 | 2.0 | -1.0 6.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 6.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.20 | 0.00 | -3.0 2.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 111 | 0 | 0.0 238.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 122 | 0 | 0.0 252.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 234 | 0 | 72.0 418.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -11 | 0 | -171.0 149.0 | — | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Brighton vs Newcastle odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA win | — | — | 48% | 2.09 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 30% | 3.38 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW win | — | — | 23% | 4.42 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 38% | 2.60 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 62% | 1.63 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA -1 goal handicap | — | — | 22% | 4.48 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW +1 goal handicap | — | — | 78% | 1.29 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA draw no bet | — | — | 68% | 1.47 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW draw no bet | — | — | 32% | 3.11 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA or draw | — | — | 77% | 1.29 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW or draw | — | — | 52% | 1.91 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA or NEW | — | — | 70% | 1.42 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA clean sheet | — | — | 46% | 2.15 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW clean sheet | — | — | 29% | 3.48 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | BHA win to nil | — | — | 33% | 3.05 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW win to nil | — | — | 15% | 6.65 | — | 56% | 0 | NO PRICE |
BHA & NEW player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes
No card projections published for this fixture yet.
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes
No goal projections published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.0%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–112.4%
Team news & model notes
Brighton
Howell (u), Tzimas (i), Yohanna (i), Igor (u), Watson (u), Wieffer (i)
Newcastle
A.Murphy (u), Livramento (i), Elanga (i), Woltemade (u), Neave (u), J.Ramsey (i)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 09:57:37 · no live prices captured
Brighton vs Newcastle betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Brighton vs Newcastle?
Our simulation makes Brighton 48% to win, the draw 30% and Newcastle 23%, with 1–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Brighton vs Newcastle?
1–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.28 for Brighton and 0.78 for Newcastle. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Brighton vs Newcastle?
Both teams to score is 38% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.06.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brighton vs Newcastle?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 34% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.06. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Brighton vs Newcastle?
The model projects 10.2 match corners, making over 10.5 corners 43%. BHA and NEW corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Brighton vs Newcastle?
We project 4.1 bookings in total, so over 4.5 cards is 39%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Brighton vs Newcastle kick off?
Brighton vs Newcastle kicks off Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 at Brighton (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.