Everton vs Chelsea Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sat 17 Oct, 11:30 · Gameweek 7 · Everton (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
2–1
9% likely
Everton vs Chelsea betting tips, prediction and the latest Everton odds and Chelsea odds for Sat 17 Oct, 11:30 at Everton (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Everton vs Chelsea at Everton (home) and settles on EVE 51%, the draw 26% and CHE 23%, with 2.40 expected goals in the game and 2–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 45% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Everton vs Chelsea betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Everton vs Chelsea spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Recommended bet builders
Model-picked multi-leg selections for this fixture — always check the price with your bookmaker
Bookings bet builder
The three players our card model rates most likely to see a yellow in this fixture.
- —
1.LacroixCHE
Lacroix to be carded
Player to be Carded
23% modelled booking chance from 1.03 expected fouls
- —
2.RogersCHE
Rogers to be carded
Player to be Carded
23% modelled booking chance from 1.15 expected fouls
- —
3.FofanaCHE
Fofana to be carded
Player to be Carded
17% modelled booking chance from 1.00 expected fouls
Combined price — · model chance 0.9%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Everton
- 1PickfordGKP
- 2TarkowskiDEF
- 3MykolenkoDEF
- 4BranthwaiteDEF
- 5Maitland-NilesDEF
- 6Dewsbury-HallMID
- 7GarnerMID
- 8ArmstrongMID
- 9JohnsonMID
- 10GeorgeMID
- 11BarryFWD
Bench: Röhl, Grealish, Keane, O'Brien
Full Everton predicted XI →Referee: P Tierney
15 matches on record · 21.2 fouls and 3.27 yellows a game (league average 21.83 fouls, 3.76 yellows)
Season by season
| 2026/2027 | 3 | 25.33 | 3 | 0 |
| 2025/2026 | 12 | 20.17 | 3.33 | 0.17 |
With these two clubs
- Everton1 games · 5 fouls · 0 yellows
- Chelsea1 games · 9 fouls · 2 yellows
Players he has booked
No player in either predicted squad has been booked by him in the matches we hold card data for.
Player card history covers 12 of his matches across the last three Premier League seasons.
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.40 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 24.0 | 23.0 | 16.0 33.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 9.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 14.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 10.4 | 10.0 | 6.0 15.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 4.21 | 3.00 | 2.0 7.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 21.3 | 18.0 | 14.0 30.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.60 | 0.00 | -1.0 3.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.9 | 0.0 | -6.0 8.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.5 | 1.0 | -2.0 5.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.7 | 2.0 | -2.0 6.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -1.21 | -1.00 | -4.0 1.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 86 | 0 | 0.0 195.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 155 | 0 | 22.0 305.1 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 240 | 0 | 75.0 430.1 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -69 | 0 | -238.1 88.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Everton vs Chelsea odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE win | — | — | 51% | 1.96 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 26% | 3.80 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE win | — | — | 23% | 4.40 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 45% | 2.21 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 55% | 1.83 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE -1 goal handicap | — | — | 26% | 3.80 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE +1 goal handicap | — | — | 74% | 1.36 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE draw no bet | — | — | 69% | 1.45 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE draw no bet | — | — | 31% | 3.24 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE or draw | — | — | 77% | 1.29 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE or draw | — | — | 49% | 2.04 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE or CHE | — | — | 74% | 1.36 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE clean sheet | — | — | 41% | 2.42 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE clean sheet | — | — | 23% | 4.28 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | EVE win to nil | — | — | 31% | 3.18 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | CHE win to nil | — | — | 13% | 7.49 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
EVE & CHE player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes — carded prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its player card market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LacroixCHE | DEF | 23% | 1.03 | 92% | 22.9 | 11.0 / 15.0 | — | NO BET |
| RogersCHE | MID | 23% | 1.15 | 95% | 21.9 | 12.0 / 16.0 | — | NO BET |
| FofanaCHE | DEF | 17% | 1.00 | 74% | 17.7 | 17.0 / 21.0 | — | NO BET |
| João PedroCHE | FWD | 15% | 1.05 | 86% | 14.9 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| PalmerCHE | MID | 15% | 0.50 | 83% | 13.8 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| CaicedoCHE | MID | 15% | 1.12 | 71% | 13.9 | 18.0 / 22.0 | — | SELL |
| ArmstrongEVE | MID | 14% | 1.34 | 74% | 17.5 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| GarnerEVE | MID | 14% | 0.94 | 89% | 12.5 | 18.0 / 22.0 | — | SELL |
| Dewsbury-HallEVE | MID | 13% | 1.21 | 86% | 14.3 | 9.0 / 13.0 | — | NO BET |
| HatoCHE | DEF | 12% | 0.67 | 69% | 11.4 | 12.0 / 16.0 | — | NO BET |
| TarkowskiEVE | DEF | 11% | 0.90 | 92% | 11.7 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| GustoCHE | DEF | 11% | 0.60 | 77% | 10.9 | 9.0 / 13.0 | — | NO BET |
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes — anytime scorer prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its goalscorer market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João PedroCHE | FWD | 24% | 0.32 | 86% | 13.3 | 21.0 / 24.0 | — | SELL |
| BarryEVE | FWD | 22% | 0.31 | 83% | 12.0 | 17.0 / 20.0 | — | SELL |
| RogersCHE | MID | 18% | 0.21 | 95% | 8.7 | 12.0 / 15.0 | — | SELL |
| PalmerCHE | MID | 16% | 0.22 | 83% | 9.4 | 18.0 / 21.0 | — | SELL |
| Dewsbury-HallEVE | MID | 15% | 0.18 | 86% | 8.0 | 8.0 / 11.0 | — | NO BET |
| NetoCHE | MID | 8% | 0.11 | 81% | 4.1 | 5.0 / 8.0 | — | NO BET |
| ArmstrongEVE | MID | 7% | 0.10 | 74% | 4.4 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
| JohnsonEVE | MID | 7% | 0.10 | 72% | 2.7 | 9.0 / 12.0 | — | SELL |
| HendersonCHE | MID | 6% | 0.10 | 66% | 4.2 | 2.0 / 4.0 | — | NO BET |
| GarnerEVE | MID | 6% | 0.07 | 89% | 2.6 | 4.0 / 7.0 | — | NO BET |
| GrealishEVE | MID | 5% | 0.07 | 66% | 2.9 | 6.0 / 9.0 | — | SELL |
| TarkowskiEVE | DEF | 4% | 0.05 | 92% | 2.0 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.6%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–010.0%
Team news & model notes
Everton
Beto (u), Patterson (u)
Chelsea
D.Essugo (u), Marc Guiu (u), Sánchez (u), Jörgensen (u), Chalobah (u), B.Badiashile (u)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 09:58:01 · no live prices captured
Everton vs Chelsea betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Everton vs Chelsea?
Our simulation makes Everton 51% to win, the draw 26% and Chelsea 23%, with 2–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Everton vs Chelsea?
2–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.50 for Everton and 0.90 for Chelsea. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Chelsea?
Both teams to score is 45% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.40.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Everton vs Chelsea?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 43% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.40. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Everton vs Chelsea?
The model projects 10.4 match corners, making over 10.5 corners 46%. EVE and CHE corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Everton vs Chelsea?
We project 4.2 bookings in total, so over 4.5 cards is 41%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Everton vs Chelsea kick off?
Everton vs Chelsea kicks off Sat 17 Oct, 11:30 at Everton (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.