Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sat 28 Nov, 17:30 · Gameweek 12 · Ipswich Town (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
1–1
13% likely
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa betting tips, prediction and the latest Ipswich Town odds and Aston Villa odds for Sat 28 Nov, 17:30 at Ipswich Town (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa at Ipswich Town (home) and settles on IPS 35%, the draw 29% and AVL 36%, with 2.21 expected goals in the game and 1–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 44% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.21 | 2.00 | 0.0 4.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 19.7 | 17.0 | 13.0 27.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 11.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 8.1 | 8.0 | 4.0 12.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 2.72 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 19.9 | 18.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.02 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.3 | 0.0 | -6.0 6.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.2 | 0.0 | -4.0 3.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | -4.0 4.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.55 | 0.00 | -3.0 1.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 62 | 0 | 0.0 154.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 94 | 0 | 0.0 208.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 156 | 0 | 24.0 303.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -32 | 0 | -165.0 91.0 | — | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | IPS win | — | — | 35% | 2.88 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 29% | 3.41 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL win | — | — | 36% | 2.78 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 44% | 2.27 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 56% | 1.79 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | IPS -1 goal handicap | — | — | 14% | 7.01 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL +1 goal handicap | — | — | 86% | 1.17 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | IPS draw no bet | — | — | 49% | 2.03 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL draw no bet | — | — | 51% | 1.97 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | IPS or draw | — | — | 64% | 1.56 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL or draw | — | — | 65% | 1.53 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | IPS or AVL | — | — | 71% | 1.42 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | IPS clean sheet | — | — | 34% | 2.98 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL clean sheet | — | — | 34% | 2.92 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | IPS win to nil | — | — | 22% | 4.62 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL win to nil | — | — | 22% | 4.46 | — | 49% | 0 | NO PRICE |
IPS & AVL player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes
No card projections published for this fixture yet.
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes
No goal projections published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 0–112.6%
- 0–011.9%
Team news & model notes
Ipswich Town
Hirst (u), Johnson (u), Ogbene (u), Al-Hamadi (u), Burns (u), Szmodics (u)
Aston Villa
Watkins (u), Digne (u), Bailey (u), Maatsen (i), Onana (i), Ruggeri (i)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 08:41:18 · no live prices captured
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Our simulation makes Ipswich Town 35% to win, the draw 29% and Aston Villa 36%, with 1–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
1–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.10 for Ipswich Town and 1.11 for Aston Villa. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Both teams to score is 44% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.21.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 38% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.21. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
The model projects 8.1 match corners, making over 8.5 corners 42%. IPS and AVL corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa?
We project 2.7 bookings in total, so over 2.5 cards is 50%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa kick off?
Ipswich Town vs Aston Villa kicks off Sat 28 Nov, 17:30 at Ipswich Town (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.