Leeds vs Man Utd Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 · Gameweek 7 · Leeds (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
1–1
12% likely
Leeds vs Man Utd betting tips, prediction and the latest Leeds odds and Man Utd odds for Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Leeds (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Leeds vs Man Utd at Leeds (home) and settles on LEE 49%, the draw 29% and MUN 22%, with 2.10 expected goals in the game and 1–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 39% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Leeds vs Man Utd betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Leeds vs Man Utd spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Recommended bet builders
Model-picked multi-leg selections for this fixture — always check the price with your bookmaker
Bookings bet builder
The three players our card model rates most likely to see a yellow in this fixture.
- —
1.MaguireMUN
Maguire to be carded
Player to be Carded
17% modelled booking chance from 0.85 expected fouls
- —
2.AmpaduLEE
Ampadu to be carded
Player to be Carded
16% modelled booking chance from 1.39 expected fouls
- —
Combined price — · model chance 0.4%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Leeds
- 1TraffordGKP
- 2BogleDEF
- 3JustinDEF
- 4MuharemovićDEF
- 5GudmundssonDEF
- 6ElvediDEF
- 7AmpaduMID
- 8StachMID
- 9OkaforMID
- 10TanakaMID
- 11Calvert-LewinFWD
Bench: Aaronson, Bijol, Wilson, Gruev
Doubts: James
Out: Rodon, Mateo Joseph
Full Leeds predicted XI →Referee: D England
46 matches on record · 22.33 fouls and 4.17 yellows a game (league average 21.94 fouls, 3.9 yellows)
Season by season
| 2026/2027 | 4 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| 2025/2026 | 23 | 22.04 | 4.3 | 0.13 |
| 2024/2025 | 19 | 22.95 | 4.16 | 0.21 |
With these two clubs
- Leeds1 games · 10 fouls · 1 yellows
- Man Utd6 games · 9 fouls · 1.83 yellows
Players he has booked
No player in either predicted squad has been booked by him in the matches we hold card data for.
Player card history covers 23 of his matches across the last three Premier League seasons.
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.10 | 2.00 | 0.0 4.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 22.5 | 20.0 | 15.0 31.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.0 10.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.0 12.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 2.98 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 20.9 | 21.0 | 13.0 29.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.54 | 0.00 | -1.0 2.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | -1.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 5.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.5 | 1.0 | -3.0 4.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.1 | 0.0 | -3.0 4.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.80 | -1.00 | -3.0 1.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 62 | 0 | 0.0 155.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 108 | 0 | 0.0 231.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 170 | 0 | 36.0 325.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -45 | 0 | -185.0 87.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Leeds vs Man Utd odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE win | — | — | 49% | 2.02 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 29% | 3.47 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN win | — | — | 22% | 4.59 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 39% | 2.55 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 61% | 1.64 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE -1 goal handicap | — | — | 23% | 4.28 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN +1 goal handicap | — | — | 77% | 1.30 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE draw no bet | — | — | 69% | 1.44 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN draw no bet | — | — | 31% | 3.27 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE or draw | — | — | 78% | 1.28 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN or draw | — | — | 51% | 1.98 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE or MUN | — | — | 71% | 1.40 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE clean sheet | — | — | 46% | 2.16 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN clean sheet | — | — | 27% | 3.66 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LEE win to nil | — | — | 34% | 2.98 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN win to nil | — | — | 14% | 6.91 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
LEE & MUN player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes — carded prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its player card market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MaguireMUN | DEF | 17% | 0.85 | 83% | 17.4 | 19.0 / 23.0 | — | SELL |
| AmpaduLEE | MID | 16% | 1.39 | 95% | 16.0 | 19.0 / 23.0 | — | SELL |
| DalotMUN | DEF | 15% | 0.78 | 78% | 15.5 | 12.0 / 16.0 | — | NO BET |
| Calvert-LewinLEE | FWD | 14% | 1.20 | 89% | 13.3 | 11.0 / 15.0 | — | NO BET |
| MbeumoMUN | MID | 14% | 0.84 | 89% | 13.3 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| BogleLEE | DEF | 13% | 0.96 | 92% | 11.1 | 19.0 / 23.0 | — | SELL |
| B.FernandesMUN | MID | 13% | 0.72 | 95% | 11.6 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| StachLEE | MID | 12% | 1.57 | 86% | 14.2 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| MuharemovićLEE | DEF | 11% | 0.92 | 77% | 13.3 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| MartinezMUN | DEF | 11% | 0.67 | 72% | 12.6 | 20.0 / 24.0 | — | SELL |
| CunhaMUN | MID | 9% | 0.78 | 86% | 8.4 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | SELL |
| GudmundssonLEE | DEF | 9% | 0.93 | 80% | 10.6 | 9.0 / 13.0 | — | NO BET |
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes — anytime scorer prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its goalscorer market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvert-LewinLEE | FWD | 27% | 0.36 | 89% | 13.5 | 21.0 / 24.0 | — | SELL |
| MbeumoMUN | MID | 23% | 0.29 | 89% | 12.9 | 11.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| B.FernandesMUN | MID | 19% | 0.22 | 95% | 9.3 | 11.0 / 14.0 | — | SELL |
| ZirkzeeMUN | FWD | 16% | 0.28 | 64% | 11.1 | 10.0 / 13.0 | — | NO BET |
| CunhaMUN | MID | 12% | 0.15 | 86% | 5.5 | 11.0 / 14.0 | — | SELL |
| StachLEE | MID | 12% | 0.15 | 86% | 6.5 | 6.0 / 9.0 | — | NO BET |
| OkaforLEE | MID | 9% | 0.14 | 75% | 3.8 | 10.0 / 13.0 | — | SELL |
| BogleLEE | DEF | 8% | 0.09 | 92% | 3.0 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
| JustinLEE | DEF | 6% | 0.08 | 83% | 3.4 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
| AmpaduLEE | MID | 6% | 0.07 | 95% | 3.1 | 0.5 / 2.0 | — | NO BET |
| AaronsonLEE | MID | 6% | 0.09 | 69% | 2.9 | 7.0 / 10.0 | — | SELL |
| TielemansMUN | MID | 4% | 0.05 | 81% | 1.9 | 3.0 / 6.0 | — | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.6%
- 0–012.8%
- 1–112.3%
Team news & model notes
Leeds
Bornauw (u), Gnonto (u), Harrison (u), Rodon (i), Perri (u), Piroe (u)
Man Utd
Fredricson (u), Ugarte (i), Bayindir (u), Dorgu (i), Šeško (i)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 09:57:35 · no live prices captured
Leeds vs Man Utd betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Leeds vs Man Utd?
Our simulation makes Leeds 49% to win, the draw 29% and Man Utd 22%, with 1–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Leeds vs Man Utd?
1–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.32 for Leeds and 0.78 for Man Utd. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Man Utd?
Both teams to score is 39% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.10.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Leeds vs Man Utd?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 34% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.10. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Leeds vs Man Utd?
The model projects 7.7 match corners, making over 7.5 corners 50%. LEE and MUN corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Leeds vs Man Utd?
We project 3.0 bookings in total, so over 2.5 cards is 56%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Leeds vs Man Utd kick off?
Leeds vs Man Utd kicks off Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 at Leeds (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.