Liverpool vs Man Utd Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 · Gameweek 11 · Liverpool (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
2–1
9% likely
Liverpool vs Man Utd betting tips, prediction and the latest Liverpool odds and Man Utd odds for Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 at Liverpool (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Liverpool vs Man Utd at Liverpool (home) and settles on LIV 48%, the draw 23% and MUN 29%, with 3.31 expected goals in the game and 2–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 63% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Liverpool vs Man Utd betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Liverpool vs Man Utd spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 3.31 | 3.00 | 1.0 6.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 24.0 | 22.0 | 16.0 33.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.0 11.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.0 12.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 3.58 | 3.00 | 1.0 6.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 20.2 | 19.0 | 13.0 28.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.46 | 0.00 | -2.0 3.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.0 | 1.0 | -5.0 9.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.1 | 1.0 | -2.0 5.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.3 | 1.0 | -2.0 5.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.01 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 102 | 0 | 0.0 221.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 103 | 0 | 0.0 222.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 205 | 0 | 57.0 378.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -1 | 0 | -149.0 149.0 | — | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Liverpool vs Man Utd odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV win | — | — | 48% | 2.09 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 23% | 4.37 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN win | — | — | 29% | 3.43 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 63% | 1.59 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 37% | 2.70 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV -1 goal handicap | — | — | 27% | 3.77 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN +1 goal handicap | — | — | 73% | 1.36 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV draw no bet | — | — | 62% | 1.61 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN draw no bet | — | — | 38% | 2.64 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV or draw | — | — | 71% | 1.41 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN or draw | — | — | 52% | 1.92 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV or MUN | — | — | 77% | 1.30 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV clean sheet | — | — | 25% | 3.99 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN clean sheet | — | — | 16% | 6.10 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | LIV win to nil | — | — | 21% | 4.86 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | MUN win to nil | — | — | 12% | 8.40 | — | 77% | 0 | NO PRICE |
LIV & MUN player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes
No card projections published for this fixture yet.
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes
No goal projections published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–07.3%
Team news & model notes
Liverpool
C.Jones (u), Szoboszlai (i), Elliott (u), Ekitiké (i), Bradley (i), Jaros (i)
Man Utd
Fredricson (u), Ugarte (i), Bayindir (u), Dorgu (i), Šeško (i)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 09:57:56 · no live prices captured
Liverpool vs Man Utd betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Liverpool vs Man Utd?
Our simulation makes Liverpool 48% to win, the draw 23% and Man Utd 29%, with 2–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Liverpool vs Man Utd?
2–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.89 for Liverpool and 1.43 for Man Utd. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Man Utd?
Both teams to score is 63% on the model, against a total goals projection of 3.31.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Man Utd?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 63% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 3.31. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Liverpool vs Man Utd?
The model projects 7.7 match corners, making over 7.5 corners 49%. LIV and MUN corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Liverpool vs Man Utd?
We project 3.6 bookings in total, so over 3.5 cards is 47%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Liverpool vs Man Utd kick off?
Liverpool vs Man Utd kicks off Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 at Liverpool (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.