Newcastle vs Arsenal Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 · Gameweek 11 · Newcastle (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
1–1
13% likely
Newcastle vs Arsenal betting tips, prediction and the latest Newcastle odds and Arsenal odds for Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 at Newcastle (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Newcastle vs Arsenal at Newcastle (home) and settles on NEW 30%, the draw 31% and ARS 40%, with 2.04 expected goals in the game and 1–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 40% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Newcastle vs Arsenal betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Newcastle vs Arsenal spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.04 | 1.00 | 0.0 4.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 22.9 | 23.0 | 15.0 31.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 7.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 11.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 9.4 | 9.0 | 5.0 14.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 3.59 | 3.00 | 1.0 6.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 21.1 | 20.0 | 14.0 29.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.20 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | -6.9 | -5.0 | -14.0 0.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | -2.2 | -2.0 | -6.0 1.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | -2.5 | -2.0 | -7.0 2.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.41 | 0.00 | -2.0 3.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 114 | 0 | 0.0 241.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 91 | 0 | 0.0 204.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 205 | 0 | 57.0 374.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | 23 | 0 | -126.0 176.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Newcastle vs Arsenal odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW win | — | — | 30% | 3.36 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 31% | 3.27 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS win | — | — | 40% | 2.52 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 40% | 2.53 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 60% | 1.66 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW -1 goal handicap | — | — | 11% | 9.45 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS +1 goal handicap | — | — | 89% | 1.12 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW draw no bet | — | — | 43% | 2.33 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS draw no bet | — | — | 57% | 1.75 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW or draw | — | — | 60% | 1.66 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS or draw | — | — | 70% | 1.42 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW or ARS | — | — | 69% | 1.44 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW clean sheet | — | — | 34% | 2.97 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS clean sheet | — | — | 41% | 2.47 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW win to nil | — | — | 20% | 5.04 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS win to nil | — | — | 27% | 3.75 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
NEW & ARS player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes
No card projections published for this fixture yet.
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes
No goal projections published for this fixture yet.
Most likely scorelines
- 0–114.4%
- 0–013.9%
- 1–112.9%
Team news & model notes
Newcastle
A.Murphy (u), Livramento (i), Elanga (i), Woltemade (u), Neave (u), J.Ramsey (i)
Arsenal
Martinelli (u), Nelson (u), Saliba (i), G.Jesus (u), Hincapie (i), Tzolis (i)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 10:44:44 · no live prices captured
Newcastle vs Arsenal betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our simulation makes Newcastle 30% to win, the draw 31% and Arsenal 40%, with 1–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
1–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 0.92 for Newcastle and 1.12 for Arsenal. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score is 40% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.04.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 34% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.04. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
The model projects 9.4 match corners, making over 9.5 corners 47%. NEW and ARS corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Newcastle vs Arsenal?
We project 3.6 bookings in total, so over 3.5 cards is 48%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Newcastle vs Arsenal kick off?
Newcastle vs Arsenal kicks off Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 at Newcastle (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.