Newcastle vs Aston Villa Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 · Gameweek 7 · Newcastle (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
1–1
12% likely
Newcastle vs Aston Villa betting tips, prediction and the latest Newcastle odds and Aston Villa odds for Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 at Newcastle (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Newcastle vs Aston Villa at Newcastle (home) and settles on NEW 44%, the draw 28% and AVL 28%, with 2.28 expected goals in the game and 1–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 45% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Newcastle vs Aston Villa spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Recommended bet builders
Model-picked multi-leg selections for this fixture — always check the price with your bookmaker
Bookings bet builder
The three players our card model rates most likely to see a yellow in this fixture.
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2.BuendíaAVL
Buendía to be carded
Player to be Carded
19% modelled booking chance from 1.89 expected fouls
- —
Combined price — · model chance 0.8%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Referee: J Gillett
43 matches on record · 21 fouls and 3.95 yellows a game (league average 21.96 fouls, 3.91 yellows)
Season by season
| 2026/2027 | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| 2025/2026 | 22 | 19.77 | 3.59 | 0.05 |
| 2024/2025 | 16 | 22.06 | 4.25 | 0 |
With these two clubs
- Newcastle7 games · 10.57 fouls · 2.57 yellows
- Aston Villa7 games · 10.57 fouls · 1.86 yellows
Players he has booked
No player in either predicted squad has been booked by him in the matches we hold card data for.
Player card history covers 26 of his matches across the last three Premier League seasons.
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.28 | 2.00 | 0.0 4.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 26.8 | 25.0 | 18.0 36.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 8.9 | 8.0 | 5.0 13.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 10.7 | 10.0 | 6.0 16.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 3.95 | 3.00 | 1.0 7.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 22.1 | 21.0 | 14.0 31.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.32 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | 2.0 | 2.0 | -5.0 9.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.4 | 0.0 | -3.0 4.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | 1.7 | 1.0 | -3.0 6.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | 0.39 | 0.00 | -2.0 3.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 124 | 0 | 0.0 255.1 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 101 | 0 | 0.0 219.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 225 | 0 | 67.0 409.1 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | 23 | 0 | -134.0 182.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Newcastle vs Aston Villa odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW win | — | — | 44% | 2.29 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 28% | 3.55 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL win | — | — | 28% | 3.55 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 45% | 2.23 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 55% | 1.81 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW -1 goal handicap | — | — | 20% | 5.04 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL +1 goal handicap | — | — | 80% | 1.25 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW draw no bet | — | — | 61% | 1.65 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL draw no bet | — | — | 39% | 2.55 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW or draw | — | — | 72% | 1.39 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL or draw | — | — | 56% | 1.78 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW or AVL | — | — | 72% | 1.39 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW clean sheet | — | — | 38% | 2.61 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL clean sheet | — | — | 28% | 3.59 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NEW win to nil | — | — | 27% | 3.66 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | AVL win to nil | — | — | 17% | 5.91 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
NEW & AVL player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes — carded prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its player card market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CashAVL | DEF | 22% | 1.30 | 92% | 21.0 | 15.0 / 19.0 | — | NO BET |
| BuendíaAVL | MID | 19% | 1.89 | 89% | 17.9 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| HallNEW | DEF | 18% | 1.00 | 92% | 18.8 | 9.0 / 13.0 | — | NO BET |
| BotmanNEW | DEF | 18% | 0.74 | 89% | 18.2 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| N.GonzalezNEW | MID | 18% | 1.47 | 74% | 16.0 | 18.0 / 22.0 | — | SELL |
| McGinnAVL | MID | 17% | 1.32 | 95% | 16.5 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| ThiawNEW | DEF | 16% | 0.93 | 95% | 16.4 | 11.0 / 15.0 | — | NO BET |
| DedićNEW | DEF | 16% | 1.46 | 66% | 21.3 | 11.0 / 15.0 | — | NO BET |
| WissaNEW | FWD | 14% | 1.33 | 77% | 16.4 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| WillockNEW | MID | 13% | 1.41 | 69% | 14.3 | 12.0 / 16.0 | — | NO BET |
| KamaraAVL | MID | 13% | 1.25 | 86% | 15.0 | 15.0 / 19.0 | — | NO BET |
| J.MurphyNEW | MID | 12% | 0.58 | 71% | 10.9 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes — anytime scorer prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its goalscorer market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BarnesNEW | MID | 21% | 0.28 | 86% | 12.2 | 14.0 / 17.0 | — | SELL |
| WissaNEW | FWD | 20% | 0.31 | 77% | 13.2 | 18.0 / 21.0 | — | SELL |
| N.JacksonAVL | FWD | 17% | 0.26 | 74% | 9.7 | 17.0 / 20.0 | — | SELL |
| BuendíaAVL | MID | 16% | 0.20 | 89% | 6.8 | 13.0 / 16.0 | — | SELL |
| McGinnAVL | MID | 14% | 0.16 | 95% | 6.8 | 6.0 / 9.0 | — | NO BET |
| WillockNEW | MID | 9% | 0.15 | 69% | 4.8 | 6.0 / 9.0 | — | NO BET |
| J.MurphyNEW | MID | 9% | 0.13 | 71% | 4.3 | 6.0 / 9.0 | — | SELL |
| HallNEW | DEF | 8% | 0.09 | 92% | 4.1 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
| BotmanNEW | DEF | 6% | 0.07 | 89% | 3.2 | 2.5 / 5.0 | — | NO BET |
| Fernandez-PardoNEW | FWD | 6% | 0.21 | 30% | 6.9 | 13.0 / 16.0 | — | SELL |
| BarkleyAVL | MID | 5% | 0.08 | 66% | 2.6 | 8.0 / 11.0 | — | SELL |
| ThiawNEW | DEF | 5% | 0.06 | 95% | 2.4 | 3.0 / 6.0 | — | NO BET |
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–010.9%
Team news & model notes
Newcastle
J.Ramsey (i), A.Murphy (u), Livramento (i), Elanga (i), Woltemade (u), Neave (u)
Aston Villa
Watkins (u), Digne (u), Bailey (u), Maatsen (i), Onana (i), Ruggeri (i)
Model updated 20/10/2026, 12:08:15 · no live prices captured
Newcastle vs Aston Villa betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our simulation makes Newcastle 44% to win, the draw 28% and Aston Villa 28%, with 1–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
1–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 1.30 for Newcastle and 0.98 for Aston Villa. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Both teams to score is 45% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.28.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 40% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.28. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
The model projects 10.7 match corners, making over 10.5 corners 49%. NEW and AVL corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
We project 4.0 bookings in total, so over 3.5 cards is 54%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Newcastle vs Aston Villa kick off?
Newcastle vs Aston Villa kicks off Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 at Newcastle (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.