Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal Betting Tips, Prediction & Odds
Sun 18 Oct, 15:30 · Gameweek 7 · Nott'm Forest (home)
By Clive Smalls · Updated
Predicted score
1–1
13% likely
Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal betting tips, prediction and the latest Nott'm Forest odds and Arsenal odds for Sun 18 Oct, 15:30 at Nott'm Forest (home), updated as prices and team news move.
Our model runs 20,000 simulations of Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal at Nott'm Forest (home) and settles on NFO 24%, the draw 30% and ARS 46%, with 2.00 expected goals in the game and 1–1 the projected score. Both teams to score lands 38% of the time.
No fixed-odds selection currently clears the model's value threshold for this fixture. Every market below — match result, goals, cards, corners, shots and player props — is priced against the same simulation, so you can see where the bookmakers are behind the numbers.
Minimum odds 1.50
Hides every fixed-odds selection priced shorter than 1.50 across the best bets and both fixed-odds tables.
Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal betting tips — three best fixed-odds bets
Top rated selections from different markets — game, team or player — so no two are correlated
No rated fixed-odds bets for this fixture.
Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal spread betting tips — three best positions
One per correlation family (goals, corners, cards, shots …) so the positions move independently
No rated spread bets for this fixture.
Recommended bet builders
Model-picked multi-leg selections for this fixture — always check the price with your bookmaker
Bookings bet builder
The three players our card model rates most likely to see a yellow in this fixture.
- —
1.MurilloNFO
Murillo to be carded
Player to be Carded
15% modelled booking chance from 1.07 expected fouls
- —
2.GabrielARS
Gabriel to be carded
Player to be Carded
12% modelled booking chance from 0.69 expected fouls
- —
3.N.WilliamsNFO
N.Williams to be carded
Player to be Carded
12% modelled booking chance from 0.97 expected fouls
Combined price — · model chance 0.2%
Predicted line-ups
Projected starting XI, bench and availability from the team-news model
Nott'm Forest
- 1SelsGKP
- 2N.WilliamsDEF
- 3MurilloDEF
- 4MuñozDEF
- 5AinaDEF
- 6MilenkovićDEF
- 7NdoyeMID
- 8McAteeMID
- 9SchlagerMID
- 10I.SangaréMID
- 11DelapFWD
Bench: Jair Cunha, Diomande, Gibbs-White, Dominguez
Doubts: Gibbs-White
Out: Igor Jesus, Savona
Full Nott'm Forest predicted XI →Referee: M Oliver
60 matches on record · 22.92 fouls and 3.6 yellows a game (league average 21.96 fouls, 3.91 yellows)
Season by season
| 2026/2027 | 6 | 22.83 | 2.67 | 0.17 |
| 2025/2026 | 29 | 22.72 | 3.17 | 0.07 |
| 2024/2025 | 25 | 23.16 | 4.32 | 0.2 |
With these two clubs
- Nott'm Forest9 games · 12.11 fouls · 2 yellows
- Arsenal8 games · 11.5 fouls · 1.75 yellows
Players he has booked
No player in either predicted squad has been booked by him in the matches we hold card data for.
Player card history covers 35 of his matches across the last three Premier League seasons.
Match spread markets
Model projection versus the Spreadex sell / buy line
| Floor → ceiling | Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total match goals | — | — | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.0 4.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots | — | — | 18.5 | 17.0 | 12.0 26.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match shots on target | — | — | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 9.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match corners | — | — | 7.4 | 7.0 | 4.0 11.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match cards | — | — | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.0 5.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match fouls | — | — | 20.7 | 18.0 | 13.0 29.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Goal supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.43 | 0.00 | -2.0 1.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Shot supremacy (home) | — | — | -3.1 | -2.0 | -9.0 3.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| SOT supremacy (home) | — | — | -1.2 | -1.0 | -4.0 2.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Corner supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.8 | -1.0 | -4.0 3.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card supremacy (home) | — | — | -0.07 | 0.00 | -2.0 2.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Home team card minutes | — | — | 84 | 0 | 0.0 192.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Away team card minutes | — | — | 88 | 0 | 0.0 198.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Total match card minutes | — | — | 171 | 0 | 37.9 326.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Card minute supremacy (home) | — | — | -4 | 0 | -141.0 133.0 | — | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal odds — match markets
Model probability versus the priced selection · 1.50+ only
| Signal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO win | — | — | 24% | 4.19 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Draw | — | — | 30% | 3.29 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS win | — | — | 46% | 2.19 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score | — | — | 38% | 2.64 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | Both teams to score - No | — | — | 62% | 1.61 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO -1 goal handicap | — | — | 7% | 13.96 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS +1 goal handicap | — | — | 93% | 1.08 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO draw no bet | — | — | 34% | 2.92 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS draw no bet | — | — | 66% | 1.52 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO or draw | — | — | 54% | 1.84 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS or draw | — | — | 76% | 1.31 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO or ARS | — | — | 70% | 1.44 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO clean sheet | — | — | 30% | 3.30 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS clean sheet | — | — | 46% | 2.17 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | NFO win to nil | — | — | 16% | 6.20 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
| Match outcome (model price) | ARS win to nil | — | — | 32% | 3.14 | — | 75% | 0 | NO PRICE |
NFO & ARS player odds
Every priced player selection for this fixture, model probability versus the market · 1.50+ only
No player fixed-odds selections priced for this fixture.
Player spread markets
Player projections against the Spreadex sell / buy lines
No player spread markets priced for this fixture.
Players most likely to be booked
Modelled booking chance from expected fouls, card rate and expected minutes — carded prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its player card market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MurilloNFO | DEF | 15% | 1.07 | 86% | 16.0 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| GabrielARS | DEF | 12% | 0.69 | 89% | 12.7 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| N.WilliamsNFO | DEF | 12% | 0.97 | 95% | 12.1 | 9.0 / 13.0 | — | NO BET |
| CalafioriARS | DEF | 11% | 1.03 | 80% | 12.4 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| MuñozNFO | DEF | 11% | 1.14 | 83% | 12.3 | 11.0 / 15.0 | — | NO BET |
| RiceARS | MID | 11% | 0.66 | 92% | 9.7 | 8.0 / 12.0 | — | NO BET |
| I.SangaréNFO | MID | 10% | 1.74 | 66% | 16.0 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| SakaARS | MID | 10% | 1.07 | 86% | 11.4 | 5.0 / 8.0 | — | NO BET |
| AinaNFO | DEF | 10% | 0.61 | 77% | 9.9 | 11.0 / 15.0 | — | NO BET |
| DelapNFO | FWD | 10% | 1.55 | 69% | 12.7 | 13.0 / 17.0 | — | NO BET |
| McAteeNFO | MID | 10% | 0.89 | 72% | 12.4 | 10.0 / 14.0 | — | NO BET |
| SchlagerNFO | MID | 9% | 0.98 | 74% | 11.1 | 12.0 / 16.0 | — | NO BET |
Players most likely to score
Modelled goal chance from expected shots, conversion rate and expected minutes — anytime scorer prices appear automatically once the bookmaker opens its goalscorer market (usually a few hours before kick-off)
| Sell / Buy | Signal | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SakaARS | MID | 28% | 0.39 | 86% | 15.6 | 20.0 / 23.0 | — | SELL |
| HavertzARS | FWD | 22% | 0.34 | 74% | 13.4 | 21.0 / 24.0 | — | SELL |
| Bruno G.ARS | MID | 13% | 0.23 | 66% | 6.7 | 6.0 / 9.0 | — | NO BET |
| ØdegaardARS | MID | 13% | 0.18 | 77% | 6.1 | — | — | NO BET |
| CalafioriARS | DEF | 12% | 0.16 | 80% | 6.4 | 5.0 / 8.0 | — | NO BET |
| DelapNFO | FWD | 11% | 0.17 | 69% | 6.0 | 9.0 / 12.0 | — | SELL |
| RiceARS | MID | 8% | 0.09 | 92% | 3.7 | 4.0 / 7.0 | — | NO BET |
| Gibbs-WhiteNFO | MID | 7% | 0.11 | 69% | 4.8 | 8.0 / 11.0 | — | SELL |
| GyökeresARS | FWD | 7% | 0.35 | 23% | 13.7 | 21.0 / 24.0 | — | SELL |
| NdoyeNFO | MID | 6% | 0.07 | 80% | 1.8 | 5.0 / 8.0 | — | SELL |
| GabrielARS | DEF | 5% | 0.06 | 89% | 2.3 | 5.0 / 8.0 | — | SELL |
| McAteeNFO | MID | 4% | 0.05 | 72% | 2.3 | 4.0 / 7.0 | — | SELL |
Most likely scorelines
- 0–116.4%
- 0–014.2%
- 1–112.7%
Team news & model notes
Nott'm Forest
Morato (u), Abbott (u), Hutchinson (u), Savona (i), Bakwa (u), Igor Jesus (i)
Arsenal
Martinelli (u), Nelson (u), Saliba (i), G.Jesus (u), Hincapie (i), Tzolis (i)
Model updated 21/10/2026, 10:58:58 · no live prices captured
Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal betting FAQs
Straight answers from the current model run
Who will win Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
Our simulation makes Nott'm Forest 24% to win, the draw 30% and Arsenal 46%, with 1–1 the projected score.
What is the score prediction for Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
1–1, calculated by rounding expected goals of 0.79 for Nott'm Forest and 1.21 for Arsenal. The three most likely individual scorelines are listed separately below.
Will both teams score in Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score is 38% on the model, against a total goals projection of 2.00.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
Over 2.5 goals runs at 32% across 20,000 simulations, from a total goals projection of 2.00. Under 2.5 is the other side of that price.
How many corners will there be in Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
The model projects 7.4 match corners, making over 7.5 corners 45%. NFO and ARS corner counts are priced separately on the corners board.
How many cards will be shown in Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
We project 3.0 bookings in total, so over 3.5 cards is 35%. The appointed referee's own foul and card rates are built into that number.
When does Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal kick off?
Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal kicks off Sun 18 Oct, 15:30 at Nott'm Forest (home). Predicted line-ups, prices and projections on this page refresh automatically as team news lands.