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FDW McCreath betting stats, splits & projections

Batter

Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.

Record by format

Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.

overallODI411216528.067.95.553.9MEDIUM
overallT207948513.4110.612.937.6LOW

Why we like it

Splits where FDW McCreath scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.

  • Bowling type: PACE (ODI)LOW sample

    64 runs off 77 balls in 4 ODI matches — strike rate 83.1 vs 67.9 overall, average 32.0 vs 28.0 overall.

Risks

Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.

  • Bowling type: SPIN (ODI)LOW sample

    48 runs off 88 balls in 4 ODI matches — strike rate 54.5 vs 67.9 overall, average 24.0 vs 28.0 overall.

Against each opponent

Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.

United Arab EmiratesODI2689634.070.85.252.1LOW
NetherlandsODI2446922.063.85.856.5LOW
NamibiaT203414013.7102.512.542.5LOW
NetherlandsT202503525.0142.917.122.9LOW

By venue

Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.

VRA Ground, AmstelveenODI310615535.368.45.252.9MEDIUM
Titwood, GlasgowT204534513.3117.813.333.3LOW
Namibia Cricket Ground, WindhoekT203414013.7102.512.542.5LOW

By country

Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.

UnknownODI411216528.067.95.553.9MEDIUM
UnknownT207948513.4110.612.937.6LOW

By match phase

Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.

middleODI411216437.368.35.553.7MEDIUM
middleT204504316.7116.39.330.2LOW
powerplayT204353711.794.613.548.6LOW

Against pace and spin

Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.

SPINODI4488824.054.52.356.8LOW
PACEODI4647732.083.19.150.6LOW
PACET20538417.692.714.651.2LOW
SPINT204463146.0148.416.119.4LOW

How these splits are used

The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.