£
ExclusiveFreeBets
.com

Premier League Best Bets

Player trend picks for the next seven days of Premier League games. Each player has to pass one of our fixed trend rules on his recent league starts. We then check every bookmaker's price and only list a pick when our model's chance beats the price's break-even chance by 8+ points.

Research leads, not proven value bets. These markets are new to our model, so every confidence figure is uncalibrated until enough results are recorded. Hit rates come from five to eight games, which is a small sample. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org

Last updated Thu 22 Oct, 20:54 · Stats and prices: StatsHub · Picks may use projected line-ups until team news is confirmed.

Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest

Fri 23 Oct, 20:00 · Referee: Thomas Bramall

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
Murillo
Nottingham Forest v Ipswich Town · D
Shots 3+
13.00
Bet365 · 13 books
  • Bet365 13.00
  • Ladbrokes 13.00
  • Skybet 13.00
  • Paddy Power 12.00
  • Unibet 12.00
  • Spreadex 11.00
  • William Hill 10.00
  • BetVictor 9.50
  • BoyleSports 9.00
  • Betfred 9.00
  • Kambi 8.50
  • 10bet 8.50
  • BetMGM UK 8.50
13.0011.008%2 of 8 starts24%
uncalibrated
+16.13 (90′)4 (90′)2 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 8 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Dara O'Shea
Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest · D
Tackles 2+
2.62
BetVictor · 7 books
  • BetVictor 2.62
  • William Hill 2.15
  • Spreadex 2.00
  • Bet365 1.91
  • BetMGM UK 1.62
  • 10bet 1.61
  • Skybet 1.57
1.912.0038%3 of 5 starts48%
uncalibrated
+9.55 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)2 (90′)3 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Jacob Greaves
Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest · D
Fouls drawn 1+
1.62
William Hill · 8 books
  • William Hill 1.62
  • Bet365 1.61
  • Betfred 1.50
  • Skybet 1.44
  • Paddy Power 1.44
  • BoyleSports 1.44
  • Kambi 1.30
  • 10bet 1.30
1.61–62%4 of 5 starts71%
uncalibrated
+9.41 (90′)2 (90′)2 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Murillo
Nottingham Forest v Ipswich Town · D
Shots 1+
1.80
Paddy Power · 13 books
  • Paddy Power 1.80
  • William Hill 1.75
  • Unibet 1.73
  • Bet365 1.73
  • Ladbrokes 1.70
  • Spreadex 1.67
  • Skybet 1.67
  • BetVictor 1.61
  • Kambi 1.50
  • BoyleSports 1.50
  • 10bet 1.50
  • BetMGM UK 1.50
  • Betfred 1.50
1.731.6756%4 of 5 starts64%
uncalibrated
+8.53 (90′)4 (90′)2 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Aston Villa v Manchester City

Sat 24 Oct, 12:30 · Referee: Peter Bankes

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
Abdukodir Khusanov
Manchester City v Aston Villa · D
Shots 1+
3.25
Bet365 · 10 books
  • Bet365 3.25
  • BetVictor 3.10
  • Unibet 2.90
  • William Hill 2.75
  • Ladbrokes 2.45
  • Skybet 2.38
  • Betfred 2.00
  • Kambi 1.75
  • BetMGM UK 1.75
  • 10bet 1.75
3.25–31%2 of 5 starts50%
uncalibrated
+19.40 (14′)0 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • Short start in recent games
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Erling Haaland
Manchester City v Aston Villa · F
Headed shot on target 1+
2.63
Bet365 · 1 books
  • Bet365 2.63
2.63–38%3 of 5 starts57%
uncalibrated
+19.01 (90′)0 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Rúben Dias
Manchester City v Aston Villa · D
Fouls committed 2+
4.50
Ladbrokes · 11 books
  • Ladbrokes 4.50
  • Paddy Power 3.60
  • Betfred 3.30
  • Bet365 3.25
  • Skybet 3.25
  • BetVictor 3.00
  • William Hill 2.45
  • 10bet 2.25
  • Spreadex 2.15
  • Kambi 2.10
  • BetMGM UK 2.10
3.252.1522%3 of 5 starts36%
uncalibrated
+14.02 (90′)2 (90′)5 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Nico O'Reilly
Manchester City v Aston Villa · D
Shots 3+
6.50
Bet365 · 11 books
  • Bet365 6.50
  • Unibet 6.50
  • Ladbrokes 6.00
  • Skybet 5.50
  • BetVictor 5.40
  • William Hill 5.00
  • Betfred 4.33
  • Spreadex 3.50
  • Kambi 2.80
  • 10bet 2.80
  • BetMGM UK 2.80
6.503.5015%3 of 8 starts25%
uncalibrated
+9.51 (11′)0 (8′)2 (90′)0 (90′)3 (90′)4 (90′)0 (90′)4 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 8 starts)
  • Short start in recent games
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Arsenal v Everton

Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 · Referee: Harrington, Tony

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
Ezri Konsa
Arsenal v Everton · D
Fouls drawn 2+
2.88
Betfred · 7 books
  • Betfred 2.88
  • 10bet 2.50
  • Kambi 2.30
  • Paddy Power 2.10
  • Skybet 2.10
  • William Hill 2.00
  • Bet365 1.73
1.73–35%4 of 5 starts51%
uncalibrated
+16.52 (90′)3 (90′)1 (90′)2 (90′)2 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
James Tarkowski
Everton v Arsenal · D
Shots 1+
2.63
Bet365 · 11 books
  • Bet365 2.63
  • Ladbrokes 2.62
  • Kambi 2.60
  • 10bet 2.60
  • BetMGM UK 2.60
  • BetVictor 2.55
  • Unibet 2.40
  • William Hill 2.20
  • Betfred 2.10
  • Paddy Power 2.00
  • Skybet 1.91
2.63–38%2 of 5 starts52%
uncalibrated
+14.10 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Declan Rice
Arsenal v Everton · M
Fouls committed 1+
1.80
Bet365 · 11 books
  • Bet365 1.80
  • BetVictor 1.75
  • Ladbrokes 1.75
  • William Hill 1.67
  • Paddy Power 1.67
  • Skybet 1.62
  • Betfred 1.53
  • Kambi 1.31
  • BetMGM UK 1.31
  • 10bet 1.30
  • Spreadex 1.30
1.801.3056%4 of 5 starts66%
uncalibrated
+10.81 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Jarrad Branthwaite
Everton v Arsenal · D
Shots 1+
2.30
Paddy Power · 12 books
  • Paddy Power 2.30
  • Ladbrokes 2.30
  • William Hill 2.30
  • Spreadex 2.25
  • Kambi 2.20
  • 10bet 2.20
  • BetMGM UK 2.20
  • Bet365 2.10
  • Skybet 2.10
  • BetVictor 2.10
  • Unibet 2.05
  • Betfred 1.95
2.102.2543%3 of 5 starts53%
uncalibrated
+9.91 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)0 (90′)2 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Coventry City v Fulham

Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 · Referee: Adam Herczeg

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
Ethan Pinnock
Coventry City v Fulham · D
Shots 1+
2.90
Ladbrokes · 11 books
  • Ladbrokes 2.90
  • Betfred 2.40
  • Bet365 2.10
  • BetVictor 2.10
  • Paddy Power 2.00
  • Unibet 2.00
  • Kambi 1.95
  • 10bet 1.95
  • BetMGM UK 1.95
  • Skybet 1.83
  • William Hill 1.83
2.10–34%3 of 5 starts47%
uncalibrated
+12.21 (90′)0 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Ethan Pinnock
Coventry City v Fulham · D
Shots 1+
2.90
Ladbrokes · 11 books
  • Ladbrokes 2.90
  • Betfred 2.40
  • Bet365 2.10
  • BetVictor 2.10
  • Paddy Power 2.00
  • Unibet 2.00
  • Kambi 1.95
  • 10bet 1.95
  • BetMGM UK 1.95
  • Skybet 1.83
  • William Hill 1.83
2.10–34%3 of 5 starts47%
uncalibrated
+12.21 (90′)0 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Calvin Bassey
Fulham v Coventry City · D
Tackles 2+
2.10
Bet365 · 5 books
  • Bet365 2.10
  • William Hill 1.73
  • BetVictor 1.55
  • 10bet 1.53
  • BetMGM UK 1.53
2.10–48%3 of 5 starts59%
uncalibrated
+11.23 (90′)4 (90′)2 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Calvin Bassey
Fulham v Coventry City · D
Shots 1+
2.63
Bet365 · 11 books
  • Bet365 2.63
  • BetVictor 2.45
  • Unibet 2.35
  • William Hill 2.30
  • Ladbrokes 2.25
  • Kambi 2.20
  • 10bet 2.20
  • BetMGM UK 2.20
  • Paddy Power 2.00
  • Betfred 1.87
  • Skybet 1.83
2.63–38%3 of 5 starts48%
uncalibrated
+10.11 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Calvin Bassey
Fulham v Coventry City · D
Shots 1+
2.63
Bet365 · 11 books
  • Bet365 2.63
  • BetVictor 2.45
  • Unibet 2.35
  • William Hill 2.30
  • Ladbrokes 2.25
  • Kambi 2.20
  • 10bet 2.20
  • BetMGM UK 2.20
  • Paddy Power 2.00
  • Betfred 1.87
  • Skybet 1.83
2.63–38%3 of 5 starts48%
uncalibrated
+10.11 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Antonee Robinson
Fulham v Coventry City · D
Shots 1+
2.63
Bet365 · 11 books
  • Bet365 2.63
  • BetVictor 2.30
  • Unibet 2.15
  • Ladbrokes 2.05
  • Paddy Power 2.00
  • Kambi 1.95
  • 10bet 1.95
  • BetMGM UK 1.95
  • Skybet 1.83
  • Betfred 1.75
  • William Hill 1.70
2.63–38%2 of 5 starts48%
uncalibrated
+10.10 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Chelsea v Tottenham Hotspur

Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 · Referee: Chris Kavanagh

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
Jan Paul van Hecke
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea · D
Fouls drawn 1+
1.73
Paddy Power · 7 books
  • Paddy Power 1.73
  • Skybet 1.67
  • Betfred 1.62
  • Bet365 1.57
  • 10bet 1.57
  • Kambi 1.53
  • William Hill 1.40
1.57–58%4 of 5 starts68%
uncalibrated
+10.41 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)3 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Micky van de Ven
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea · D
Shots 1+
2.87
Ladbrokes · 11 books
  • Ladbrokes 2.87
  • Paddy Power 2.75
  • Kambi 2.50
  • 10bet 2.50
  • BetMGM UK 2.50
  • Skybet 2.38
  • Unibet 2.35
  • Betfred 2.30
  • Bet365 2.25
  • BetVictor 2.25
  • William Hill 2.20
2.25–35%3 of 5 starts45%
uncalibrated
+10.01 (90′)0 (16′)1 (90′)0 (90′)2 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • Short start in recent games
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Micky van de Ven
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea · D
Shots 1+
2.87
Ladbrokes · 11 books
  • Ladbrokes 2.87
  • Paddy Power 2.75
  • Kambi 2.50
  • 10bet 2.50
  • BetMGM UK 2.50
  • Skybet 2.38
  • Unibet 2.35
  • Betfred 2.30
  • Bet365 2.25
  • BetVictor 2.25
  • William Hill 2.20
2.25–35%3 of 5 starts45%
uncalibrated
+10.01 (90′)0 (16′)1 (90′)0 (90′)2 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • Short start in recent games
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 · Referee: Samuel Barrott

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
Pascal Groß
Brighton & Hove Albion v Liverpool · M
Fouls committed 2+
3.30
Ladbrokes · 7 books
  • Ladbrokes 3.30
  • Bet365 3.00
  • William Hill 2.75
  • 10bet 2.60
  • Betfred 2.60
  • BetMGM UK 2.38
  • Kambi 2.00
3.00–30%4 of 5 starts38%
uncalibrated
+8.14 (90′)1 (90′)2 (90′)2 (90′)2 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Manchester United v Bournemouth

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 · Referee: Jarred Gillett

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
António Silva
Bournemouth v Manchester United · D
Fouls committed 1+
1.61
Ladbrokes · 7 books
  • Ladbrokes 1.61
  • Betfred 1.44
  • William Hill 1.40
  • Bet365 1.28
  • 10bet 1.22
  • Kambi 1.22
  • BetMGM UK 1.22
1.28–62%4 of 5 starts75%
uncalibrated
+12.51 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Crystal Palace v Newcastle United

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 · Referee: Paul Tierney

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
Chris Richards
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United · D
Fouls committed 1+
2.10
Bet365 · 7 books
  • Bet365 2.10
  • William Hill 1.95
  • Ladbrokes 1.91
  • Betfred 1.62
  • BetMGM UK 1.25
  • 10bet 1.25
  • Kambi 1.23
2.10–48%4 of 5 starts57%
uncalibrated
+9.41 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Chris Richards
Crystal Palace v Newcastle United · D
Fouls committed 1+
2.10
Bet365 · 7 books
  • Bet365 2.10
  • William Hill 1.95
  • Ladbrokes 1.91
  • Betfred 1.62
  • BetMGM UK 1.25
  • 10bet 1.25
  • Kambi 1.23
2.10–48%4 of 5 starts57%
uncalibrated
+9.41 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Multiple bets on this player are linked, not independent chances.
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Sunderland v Leeds United

Sun 25 Oct, 16:30 · Referee: Stuart Attwell

bet365SpreadexRecent stat counts (minutes played)
Nico Elvedi
Leeds United v Sunderland · D
Shots 1+
2.40
Ladbrokes · 7 books
  • Ladbrokes 2.40
  • Kambi 2.30
  • 10bet 2.30
  • BetMGM UK 2.30
  • Bet365 2.00
  • Betfred 1.95
  • Unibet 1.91
2.00–42%3 of 5 starts63%
uncalibrated
+21.01 (90′)1 (90′)1 (90′)0 (90′)0 (56′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • Short start in recent games
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Granit Xhaka
Sunderland v Leeds United · M
Tackles 2+
2.38
Bet365 · 3 books
  • Bet365 2.38
  • BetMGM UK 1.70
  • 10bet 1.70
2.38–42%4 of 5 starts61%
uncalibrated
+18.82 (90′)2 (90′)3 (90′)1 (90′)2 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 5 starts)
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Nordi Mukiele
Sunderland v Leeds United · D
Shots 3+
8.50
Ladbrokes · 7 books
  • Ladbrokes 8.50
  • Kambi 7.00
  • BetMGM UK 7.00
  • 10bet 7.00
  • Betfred 6.00
  • Bet365 5.00
  • Unibet 5.00
5.00–12%3 of 8 starts24%
uncalibrated
+12.00 (90′)3 (90′)1 (90′)4 (90′)0 (90′)0 (90′)3 (90′)1 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 8 starts)
  • A defender’s shots can depend on involvement at corners and free kicks.
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Leeds United v Sunderland · M
Shots 2+
8.00
Ladbrokes · 7 books
  • Ladbrokes 8.00
  • Kambi 6.00
  • 10bet 6.00
  • BetMGM UK 6.00
  • Betfred 5.50
  • Bet365 5.00
  • Unibet 4.60
5.00–13%2 of 8 starts24%
uncalibrated
+11.30 (90′)2 (90′)0 (90′)0 (90′)0 (90′)0 (50′)2 (90′)0 (90′)
Risk notes
  • Small sample (last 8 starts)
  • Short start in recent games
  • If your bookmaker offers Sub On Play On, check whether the bet continues with a substitute.

Two-leg doubles

Singles come first: one losing leg loses the whole ticket. The combined chance multiplies the two model chances, assuming the games are independent.

  • Nico Elvedi shots 1+ @ 2.40 + Abdukodir Khusanov shots 1+ @ 3.25 · combined price 7.80 · combined chance 31%
  • Erling Haaland headed shot on target 1+ @ 2.63 + Granit Xhaka tackles 2+ @ 2.38 · combined price 6.23 · combined chance 35%
  • Ezri Konsa fouls drawn 2+ @ 2.88 + Murillo shots 3+ @ 13.00 · combined price 37.44 · combined chance 12%

Card model vs bookmaker booking odds

Our booking model's chance for each player to be carded, set against the best "to be carded" price from StatsHub's bookmakers. EV is per £1 staked at that price. Only bets with positive EV that the model rates BET or LEAN are shown. The card model is uncalibrated, so these are research leads.

Loading card prices…

Passed the rules, odds not yet available

  • Ryan Sessegnon (Fulham v Coventry City): Shots 1+ · 4 of 5 starts
  • Ryan Sessegnon (Fulham v Coventry City): Shots 1+ · 4 of 5 starts
  • Vitaly Janelt (Brentford v Hull City): Tackles 2+ · 4 of 5 starts
  • Vitaly Janelt (Brentford v Hull City): Fouls committed 1+ · 4 of 5 starts
  • Vitaly Janelt (Brentford v Hull City): Tackles 1+ · 5 of 5 starts
  • Vitaly Janelt (Brentford v Hull City): Shots 1+ · 2 of 5 starts
  • Vitaly Janelt (Brentford v Hull City): Fouls committed 1+ · 4 of 5 starts
  • Kevin Danso (Sunderland v Leeds United): Shots 1+ · 3 of 5 starts
  • Kevin Danso (Sunderland v Leeds United): Fouls committed 1+ · 4 of 5 starts
  • Kevin Danso (Sunderland v Leeds United): Fouls drawn 1+ · 3 of 5 starts
  • Kevin Danso (Sunderland v Leeds United): Fouls committed 1+ · 4 of 5 starts
  • Kevin Danso (Sunderland v Leeds United): Shots 1+ · 3 of 5 starts

Running record

No picks have been settled yet. Results are recorded automatically after each game.

Rule changes are suggested only after 50+ settled picks in a market, and never made without your approval.

The rules

  • Fouls committed 2+: more than 8 in the last 5 starts, odds over 2.5
  • Fouls committed 1+: 1+ in 4 of the last 5 starts, odds over 1.6
  • Fouls drawn 2+: more than 8 in the last 5 starts, odds over 2.5
  • Fouls drawn 1+: 1+ in 4 of the last 5 starts, odds over 1.6
  • Shots 1+: 1+ in 3 of the last 5 starts, odds over 1.7
  • Shots 3+: 3+ in 2 of the last 8 starts, odds over 6
  • Tackles 2+: at least 10 in the last 5 starts, odds over 2
  • Tackles 1+: 1+ in 4 of the last 5 starts, odds over 1.6
  • Headed shot on target 1+: 1+ in 3 of the last 5 starts, any price
  • Shot on target outside the box 1+: 1+ in 3 of the last 5 starts, any price

We count starts only, in this competition only. Confidence is a weighted chance from the last ten starts, pulled toward the position average. It is never the raw hit rate: 4 of 5 is not 80%. For cards, see our player fixed odds model.