HM Nicholls betting stats, splits & projections
Batter
Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.
Record by format
Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.
| overall | FIRST_CLASS | 78 | 6060 | 10140 | 55.1 | 59.8 | 6.9 | 67.7 | HIGH |
| overall | TEST | 37 | 2008 | 3788 | 37.2 | 53.0 | 5.9 | 70.7 | HIGH |
| overall | ODI | 32 | 851 | 1085 | 32.7 | 78.4 | 7.8 | 52.5 | HIGH |
| overall | T20 | 20 | 621 | 448 | 38.8 | 138.6 | 18.8 | 31.0 | HIGH |
| overall | FIRST_CLASS | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | — | LOW |
Why we like it
Splits where HM Nicholls scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.
- Opposition: Auckland Aces (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1612 runs off 2384 balls in 14 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 67.6 vs 59.8 overall, average 89.6 vs 55.1 overall.
- Opposition: Otago Volts (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1514 runs off 2128 balls in 12 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 71.1 vs 59.8 overall, average 126.2 vs 55.1 overall.
- Opposition: Pakistan (TEST)HIGH sample
277 runs off 535 balls in 4 TEST matches — strike rate 51.8 vs 53.0 overall, average 46.2 vs 37.2 overall.
- Opposition: Sri Lanka (TEST)HIGH sample
305 runs off 462 balls in 4 TEST matches — strike rate 66.0 vs 53.0 overall, average 61.0 vs 37.2 overall.
- Opposition: Bangladesh (TEST)HIGH sample
260 runs off 411 balls in 6 TEST matches — strike rate 63.3 vs 53.0 overall, average 28.9 vs 37.2 overall.
- Opposition: Bangladesh (ODI)HIGH sample
319 runs off 407 balls in 9 ODI matches — strike rate 78.4 vs 78.4 overall, average 45.6 vs 32.7 overall.
Risks
Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.
- Opposition: Central Stags (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
800 runs off 1432 balls in 18 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 55.9 vs 59.8 overall, average 33.3 vs 55.1 overall.
- Opposition: England (TEST)HIGH sample
488 runs off 1109 balls in 10 TEST matches — strike rate 44.0 vs 53.0 overall, average 28.7 vs 37.2 overall.
- Opposition: Sussex (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
232 runs off 548 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 42.3 vs 59.8 overall, average 29.0 vs 55.1 overall.
- Opposition: Essex (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
232 runs off 460 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 50.4 vs 59.8 overall, average 38.7 vs 55.1 overall.
- Opposition: Durham (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
134 runs off 310 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 43.2 vs 59.8 overall, average 33.5 vs 55.1 overall.
- Venue: County Ground, Hove (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
232 runs off 548 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 42.3 vs 59.8 overall, average 29.0 vs 55.1 overall.
Against each opponent
Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.
| Auckland Aces | FIRST_CLASS | 14 | 1612 | 2384 | 89.6 | 67.6 | 7.8 | 61.9 | HIGH |
| Otago Volts | FIRST_CLASS | 12 | 1514 | 2128 | 126.2 | 71.1 | 9.1 | 63.5 | HIGH |
| Wellington Firebirds | FIRST_CLASS | 10 | 900 | 1672 | 56.3 | 53.8 | 5.5 | 70.3 | HIGH |
| Central Stags | FIRST_CLASS | 18 | 800 | 1432 | 33.3 | 55.9 | 5.6 | 72.2 | HIGH |
| England | TEST | 10 | 488 | 1109 | 28.7 | 44.0 | 4.9 | 75.0 | HIGH |
| Northern Districts | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 516 | 902 | 51.6 | 57.2 | 7.3 | 69.4 | HIGH |
| Sussex | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 232 | 548 | 29.0 | 42.3 | 3.6 | 70.8 | HIGH |
| Pakistan | TEST | 4 | 277 | 535 | 46.2 | 51.8 | 6.2 | 72.5 | HIGH |
| Sri Lanka | TEST | 4 | 305 | 462 | 61.0 | 66.0 | 5.2 | 59.7 | HIGH |
| Essex | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 232 | 460 | 38.7 | 50.4 | 6.5 | 73.0 | HIGH |
| Bangladesh | TEST | 6 | 260 | 411 | 28.9 | 63.3 | 7.3 | 65.9 | HIGH |
| Bangladesh | ODI | 9 | 319 | 407 | 45.6 | 78.4 | 7.9 | 52.1 | HIGH |
| West Indies | TEST | 2 | 181 | 312 | 90.5 | 58.0 | 7.4 | 70.2 | HIGH |
| Durham | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 134 | 310 | 33.5 | 43.2 | 5.2 | 79.4 | HIGH |
| Zimbabwe | TEST | 2 | 188 | 303 | 188.0 | 62.0 | 7.3 | 64.0 | HIGH |
| India | TEST | 5 | 97 | 276 | 13.9 | 35.1 | 5.1 | 81.5 | MEDIUM |
| South Africa | TEST | 2 | 151 | 256 | 50.3 | 59.0 | 7.4 | 69.1 | MEDIUM |
| Surrey | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 62 | 160 | 15.5 | 38.8 | 3.8 | 76.3 | MEDIUM |
| Pakistan | ODI | 7 | 114 | 158 | 22.8 | 72.2 | 5.1 | 51.9 | MEDIUM |
| Sri Lanka | ODI | 4 | 104 | 132 | 52.0 | 78.8 | 8.3 | 53.0 | MEDIUM |
| Australia | TEST | 2 | 61 | 124 | 15.3 | 49.2 | 4.0 | 77.4 | MEDIUM |
| Netherlands | ODI | 3 | 78 | 120 | 26.0 | 65.0 | 6.7 | 61.7 | MEDIUM |
| Northern Districts | T20 | 5 | 176 | 117 | 44.0 | 150.4 | 21.4 | 26.5 | LOW |
| Otago | T20 | 5 | 170 | 111 | 56.7 | 153.2 | 20.7 | 23.4 | LOW |
| India | ODI | 3 | 62 | 91 | 20.7 | 68.1 | 8.8 | 62.6 | LOW |
| Wellington | T20 | 4 | 135 | 91 | 33.8 | 148.4 | 22.0 | 29.7 | LOW |
| Ireland | ODI | 3 | 103 | 90 | 34.3 | 114.4 | 13.3 | 37.8 | LOW |
| England | ODI | 3 | 71 | 87 | 23.7 | 81.6 | 6.9 | 47.1 | LOW |
| Auckland | T20 | 3 | 89 | 78 | 44.5 | 114.1 | 12.8 | 42.3 | LOW |
| Glamorgan | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 38 | 76 | 19.0 | 50.0 | 5.3 | 65.8 | LOW |
| Central Districts | T20 | 3 | 51 | 51 | 17.0 | 100.0 | 11.8 | 43.1 | LOW |
| Warwickshire | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 20 | 44 | 5.0 | 45.5 | 4.5 | 72.7 | LOW |
By venue
Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.
| Hagley Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 10 | 1182 | 2044 | 98.5 | 57.8 | 6.3 | 67.1 | HIGH |
| Mainpower Oval, Rangiora | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 822 | 1422 | 102.8 | 57.8 | 6.0 | 69.2 | HIGH |
| Hagley Oval, Christchurch | FIRST_CLASS | 8 | 900 | 1354 | 112.5 | 66.5 | 7.2 | 65.0 | HIGH |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 386 | 586 | 64.3 | 65.9 | 8.5 | 66.9 | HIGH |
| University Oval, Dunedin | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 440 | 550 | 220.0 | 80.0 | 9.1 | 56.0 | HIGH |
| County Ground, Hove | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 232 | 548 | 29.0 | 42.3 | 3.6 | 70.8 | HIGH |
| County Ground, New Road, Worcester | FIRST_CLASS | 8 | 220 | 542 | 13.8 | 40.6 | 4.4 | 78.6 | HIGH |
| The Cooper Associates County Ground, Taunton | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 266 | 508 | 66.5 | 52.4 | 6.7 | 70.9 | HIGH |
| Basin Reserve | TEST | 3 | 298 | 470 | 99.3 | 63.4 | 7.0 | 66.0 | HIGH |
| Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 360 | 464 | 90.0 | 77.6 | 9.5 | 59.1 | HIGH |
| Seddon Park, Hamilton | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 244 | 382 | 61.0 | 63.9 | 8.4 | 62.3 | HIGH |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | TEST | 2 | 259 | 369 | 129.5 | 70.2 | 7.0 | 62.6 | HIGH |
| Hagley Oval | TEST | 2 | 176 | 325 | 88.0 | 54.2 | 6.5 | 72.0 | HIGH |
| Cello Basin Reserve | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 170 | 322 | 21.3 | 52.8 | 6.2 | 72.0 | HIGH |
| Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo | TEST | 2 | 188 | 303 | 188.0 | 62.0 | 7.3 | 64.0 | HIGH |
| Bert Sutcliffe Oval, Lincoln | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 234 | 294 | 58.5 | 79.6 | 12.2 | 64.6 | MEDIUM |
| Hagley Oval, Christchurch | TEST | 4 | 173 | 290 | 28.8 | 59.7 | 6.9 | 67.9 | MEDIUM |
| Molyneux Park, Alexandra | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 174 | 286 | 87.0 | 60.8 | 8.4 | 68.5 | MEDIUM |
| Bay Oval | TEST | 2 | 108 | 265 | 36.0 | 40.8 | 4.5 | 77.0 | MEDIUM |
| McLean Park, Napier | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 116 | 246 | 29.0 | 47.2 | 6.5 | 78.9 | MEDIUM |
| McLean Park | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 116 | 228 | 29.0 | 50.9 | 2.6 | 71.1 | MEDIUM |
| Kennington Oval, London | TEST | 1 | 145 | 227 | 72.5 | 63.9 | 8.4 | 66.5 | MEDIUM |
| Hagley Oval, Christchurch | T20 | 9 | 279 | 211 | 55.8 | 132.2 | 17.5 | 32.2 | MEDIUM |
| Lord's, London | TEST | 1 | 84 | 211 | 42.0 | 39.8 | 2.8 | 72.0 | MEDIUM |
| Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur | ODI | 3 | 143 | 204 | 71.5 | 70.1 | 6.9 | 55.9 | MEDIUM |
| Seddon Park | TEST | 3 | 76 | 161 | 25.3 | 47.2 | 6.8 | 76.4 | MEDIUM |
| Trent Bridge, Nottingham | TEST | 2 | 85 | 158 | 21.3 | 53.8 | 7.0 | 73.4 | MEDIUM |
| Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui | TEST | 2 | 86 | 155 | 21.5 | 55.5 | 7.7 | 73.5 | MEDIUM |
| Galle International Stadium | TEST | 1 | 68 | 149 | 34.0 | 45.6 | 2.7 | 65.8 | MEDIUM |
| Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai | TEST | 1 | 51 | 140 | 25.5 | 36.4 | 6.4 | 83.6 | MEDIUM |
| Kennards Hire Community Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 88 | 136 | 22.0 | 64.7 | 5.9 | 60.3 | MEDIUM |
| Mainpower Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 66 | 128 | 16.5 | 51.6 | 10.9 | 79.7 | MEDIUM |
| Seddon Park, Hamilton | ODI | 4 | 87 | 125 | 29.0 | 69.6 | 9.6 | 64.8 | MEDIUM |
| Headingley, Leeds | TEST | 1 | 26 | 125 | 13.0 | 20.8 | 1.6 | 86.4 | MEDIUM |
| Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui | ODI | 2 | 88 | 119 | 44.0 | 73.9 | 4.2 | 52.1 | LOW |
| National Stadium, Karachi | TEST | 2 | 53 | 109 | 17.7 | 48.6 | 6.4 | 73.4 | LOW |
| Saxton Oval, Nelson | ODI | 1 | 95 | 99 | 95.0 | 96.0 | 9.1 | 42.4 | LOW |
| The Village, Malahide, Dublin | ODI | 3 | 103 | 90 | 34.3 | 114.4 | 13.3 | 37.8 | LOW |
| Pallekele International Cricket Stadium | ODI | 2 | 54 | 74 | 54.0 | 73.0 | 6.8 | 51.4 | LOW |
| Perth Stadium | TEST | 1 | 28 | 72 | 14.0 | 38.9 | 1.4 | 80.6 | LOW |
| Fitzherbert Park, Palmerston North | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 44 | 66 | 22.0 | 66.7 | 9.1 | 72.7 | LOW |
| Edgbaston, Birmingham | TEST | 1 | 21 | 56 | 21.0 | 37.5 | 1.8 | 71.4 | LOW |
| Melbourne Cricket Ground | TEST | 1 | 33 | 52 | 16.5 | 63.5 | 7.7 | 73.1 | LOW |
| University Oval | ODI | 1 | 49 | 51 | — | 96.1 | 11.8 | 39.2 | LOW |
| Sylhet International Cricket Stadium | TEST | 1 | 21 | 50 | 10.5 | 42.0 | 4.0 | 72.0 | LOW |
| Lord's, London | ODI | 1 | 41 | 48 | 41.0 | 85.4 | 6.3 | 45.8 | LOW |
| P Sara Oval | TEST | 1 | 15 | 46 | 15.0 | 32.6 | 0.0 | 69.6 | LOW |
| Molyneux Park, Alexandra | T20 | 2 | 81 | 45 | 40.5 | 180.0 | 28.9 | 24.4 | LOW |
| Holkar Cricket Stadium, Indore | ODI | 1 | 42 | 40 | 42.0 | 105.0 | 12.5 | 45.0 | LOW |
| McLean Park, Napier | ODI | 2 | 12 | 37 | 6.0 | 32.4 | 2.7 | 75.7 | LOW |
| National Stadium, Karachi | ODI | 2 | 24 | 35 | 12.0 | 68.6 | 5.7 | 51.4 | LOW |
| Eden Park, Auckland | T20 | 1 | 42 | 35 | 42.0 | 120.0 | 14.3 | 37.1 | LOW |
| Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal, Hyderabad | ODI | 1 | 18 | 31 | 18.0 | 58.1 | 9.7 | 71.0 | LOW |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | T20 | 1 | 52 | 31 | 52.0 | 167.7 | 22.6 | 12.9 | LOW |
| Sophia Gardens, Cardiff | ODI | 1 | 26 | 30 | 26.0 | 86.7 | 10.0 | 46.7 | LOW |
By country
Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.
| Unknown | FIRST_CLASS | 68 | 4878 | 8096 | 49.8 | 60.3 | 7.0 | 67.8 | HIGH |
| Unknown | TEST | 35 | 1832 | 3463 | 35.2 | 52.9 | 5.9 | 70.6 | HIGH |
| New Zealand | FIRST_CLASS | 10 | 1182 | 2044 | 98.5 | 57.8 | 6.3 | 67.1 | HIGH |
| Unknown | ODI | 29 | 812 | 1041 | 32.5 | 78.0 | 8.0 | 53.0 | HIGH |
| Unknown | T20 | 19 | 582 | 420 | 38.8 | 138.6 | 18.8 | 31.4 | HIGH |
| New Zealand | TEST | 2 | 176 | 325 | 88.0 | 54.2 | 6.5 | 72.0 | HIGH |
By match phase
Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.
| old_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 74 | 5238 | 8814 | 62.4 | 59.4 | 6.5 | 67.0 | HIGH |
| old_ball | TEST | 37 | 1805 | 3298 | 36.1 | 54.7 | 6.0 | 69.5 | HIGH |
| new_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 62 | 822 | 1326 | 31.6 | 62.0 | 9.2 | 72.4 | HIGH |
| middle | ODI | 21 | 554 | 686 | 36.9 | 80.8 | 7.0 | 46.9 | HIGH |
| new_ball | TEST | 18 | 203 | 490 | 50.8 | 41.4 | 5.1 | 78.6 | HIGH |
| powerplay | ODI | 22 | 240 | 357 | 26.7 | 67.2 | 9.0 | 66.4 | HIGH |
| middle | T20 | 17 | 320 | 226 | 24.6 | 141.6 | 17.7 | 25.7 | MEDIUM |
| powerplay | T20 | 15 | 251 | 190 | 125.5 | 132.1 | 20.0 | 40.0 | MEDIUM |
| death | ODI | 4 | 57 | 42 | 28.5 | 135.7 | 11.9 | 26.2 | LOW |
| death | T20 | 3 | 50 | 32 | 50.0 | 156.3 | 18.8 | 15.6 | LOW |
Against pace and spin
Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.
| PACE | FIRST_CLASS | 76 | 2794 | 5286 | 38.8 | 52.9 | 6.5 | 72.5 | HIGH |
| SPIN | FIRST_CLASS | 62 | 2010 | 2872 | 111.7 | 70.0 | 7.2 | 58.6 | HIGH |
| PACE | TEST | 33 | 1241 | 2337 | 49.6 | 53.1 | 7.0 | 73.7 | HIGH |
| UNKNOWN | FIRST_CLASS | 48 | 1256 | 1982 | 62.8 | 63.4 | 7.3 | 67.9 | HIGH |
| SPIN | TEST | 31 | 664 | 1335 | 23.7 | 49.7 | 3.9 | 67.0 | HIGH |
| PACE | ODI | 30 | 461 | 555 | 30.7 | 83.1 | 9.5 | 55.0 | HIGH |
| SPIN | ODI | 22 | 348 | 461 | 31.6 | 75.5 | 6.3 | 49.0 | HIGH |
| PACE | T20 | 17 | 324 | 231 | 40.5 | 140.3 | 21.6 | 34.2 | MEDIUM |
| SPIN | T20 | 16 | 233 | 173 | 29.1 | 134.7 | 15.0 | 27.2 | MEDIUM |
| UNKNOWN | TEST | 9 | 103 | 116 | 103.0 | 88.8 | 7.8 | 51.7 | LOW |
| UNKNOWN | ODI | 4 | 42 | 69 | — | 60.9 | 4.3 | 56.5 | LOW |
| UNKNOWN | T20 | 7 | 64 | 44 | — | 145.5 | 18.2 | 29.5 | LOW |
How these splits are used
The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.