LD Watson betting stats, splits & projections
Batter
Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.
Record by format
Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.
| overall | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 360 | 598 | 45.0 | 60.2 | 10.0 | 74.9 | HIGH |
| overall | T20 | 2 | 20 | 23 | 10.0 | 87.0 | 13.0 | 56.5 | LOW |
Why we like it
Splits where LD Watson scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.
- Opposition: Wellington Firebirds (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
234 runs off 334 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 70.1 vs 60.2 overall, average 58.5 vs 45.0 overall.
- Venue: Basin Reserve, Wellington (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
234 runs off 334 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 70.1 vs 60.2 overall, average 58.5 vs 45.0 overall.
- Bowling type: PACE (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
222 runs off 398 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 55.8 vs 60.2 overall, average 55.5 vs 45.0 overall.
Risks
Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.
- Opposition: Canterbury (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
126 runs off 264 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 47.7 vs 60.2 overall, average 31.5 vs 45.0 overall.
- Venue: Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
126 runs off 264 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 47.7 vs 60.2 overall, average 31.5 vs 45.0 overall.
- Bowling type: SPIN (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
82 runs off 144 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 56.9 vs 60.2 overall, average 20.5 vs 45.0 overall.
Against each opponent
Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.
| Wellington Firebirds | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 234 | 334 | 58.5 | 70.1 | 13.2 | 72.5 | HIGH |
| Canterbury | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 126 | 264 | 31.5 | 47.7 | 6.1 | 78.0 | MEDIUM |
By venue
Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 234 | 334 | 58.5 | 70.1 | 13.2 | 72.5 | HIGH |
| Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 126 | 264 | 31.5 | 47.7 | 6.1 | 78.0 | MEDIUM |
By country
Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.
| Unknown | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 360 | 598 | 45.0 | 60.2 | 10.0 | 74.9 | HIGH |
By match phase
Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.
| old_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 250 | 414 | 41.7 | 60.4 | 9.7 | 73.4 | HIGH |
| new_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 110 | 184 | 55.0 | 59.8 | 10.9 | 78.3 | MEDIUM |
Against pace and spin
Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.
| PACE | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 222 | 398 | 55.5 | 55.8 | 9.5 | 77.9 | HIGH |
| SPIN | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 82 | 144 | 20.5 | 56.9 | 6.9 | 70.8 | MEDIUM |
| UNKNOWN | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 56 | 56 | — | 100.0 | 21.4 | 64.3 | LOW |
How these splits are used
The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.