Cricket betting

LJ Carter betting stats, splits & projections

Batter

Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.

Record by format

Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.


overall	FIRST_CLASS	88	4044	7136	33.1	56.7	7.5	72.9	HIGH
overall	T20	58	1164	931	27.1	125.0	13.7	32.2	HIGH


overall	FIRST_CLASS	72	48	0	4.0	—	LOW

Why we like it

Splits where LJ Carter scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.

Opposition: Auckland Aces (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
686 runs off 1264 balls in 14 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 54.3 vs 56.7 overall, average 49.0 vs 33.1 overall.
Opposition: Otago Volts (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
712 runs off 1002 balls in 16 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 71.1 vs 56.7 overall, average 35.6 vs 33.1 overall.
Venue: Mainpower Oval (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
934 runs off 1740 balls in 16 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 53.7 vs 56.7 overall, average 42.5 vs 33.1 overall.
Venue: Mainpower Oval, Rangiora (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
780 runs off 912 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 85.5 vs 56.7 overall, average 65.0 vs 33.1 overall.
Venue: Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
424 runs off 660 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 64.2 vs 56.7 overall, average 70.7 vs 33.1 overall.
Bowling type: SPIN (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1630 runs off 2546 balls in 66 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 64.0 vs 56.7 overall, average 62.7 vs 33.1 overall.

Risks

Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.

Opposition: Northern Districts (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
366 runs off 692 balls in 12 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 52.9 vs 56.7 overall, average 18.3 vs 33.1 overall.
Venue: Basin Reserve, Wellington (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
324 runs off 734 balls in 10 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 44.1 vs 56.7 overall, average 23.1 vs 33.1 overall.
Venue: Cello Basin Reserve (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
220 runs off 504 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 43.7 vs 56.7 overall, average 27.5 vs 33.1 overall.
Venue: Seddon Park (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
144 runs off 314 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 45.9 vs 56.7 overall, average 18.0 vs 33.1 overall.
Bowling type: UNKNOWN (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
550 runs off 996 balls in 48 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 55.2 vs 56.7 overall, average 25.0 vs 33.1 overall.
Phase: new_ball (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
264 runs off 578 balls in 28 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 45.7 vs 56.7 overall, average 22.0 vs 33.1 overall.

Against each opponent

Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.


Wellington Firebirds	FIRST_CLASS	26	1344	2528	39.5	53.2	6.7	75.1	HIGH
Central Stags	FIRST_CLASS	18	806	1532	26.9	52.6	6.3	74.0	HIGH
Auckland Aces	FIRST_CLASS	14	686	1264	49.0	54.3	7.0	71.0	HIGH
Otago Volts	FIRST_CLASS	16	712	1002	35.6	71.1	10.6	68.1	HIGH
Northern Districts	FIRST_CLASS	12	366	692	18.3	52.9	7.8	75.1	HIGH
Northern Districts	T20	14	342	250	34.2	136.8	16.8	31.6	MEDIUM
Central Districts	T20	11	288	226	41.1	127.4	15.5	34.1	MEDIUM
Wellington	T20	14	172	169	13.2	101.8	8.9	36.7	MEDIUM
Auckland	T20	8	172	141	24.6	122.0	12.1	32.6	MEDIUM
Canterbury	FIRST_CLASS	2	130	118	32.5	110.2	15.3	59.3	LOW
Otago	T20	9	145	106	36.3	136.8	13.2	22.6	LOW
Canterbury	T20	2	45	39	22.5	115.4	12.8	30.8	LOW

Bowling


Auckland Aces	FIRST_CLASS	60	40	0	4.0	—	LOW

By venue

Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.


Mainpower Oval	FIRST_CLASS	16	934	1740	42.5	53.7	5.9	73.9	HIGH
Mainpower Oval, Rangiora	FIRST_CLASS	8	780	912	65.0	85.5	12.3	62.1	HIGH
Basin Reserve, Wellington	FIRST_CLASS	10	324	734	23.1	44.1	6.8	80.4	HIGH
Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland	FIRST_CLASS	6	424	660	70.7	64.2	7.9	65.8	HIGH
Cello Basin Reserve	FIRST_CLASS	4	220	504	27.5	43.7	6.3	78.2	HIGH
Seddon Park	FIRST_CLASS	4	144	314	18.0	45.9	5.7	75.8	HIGH
Bert Sutcliffe Oval, Lincoln	FIRST_CLASS	2	150	302	—	49.7	6.6	70.2	HIGH
McLean Park, Napier	FIRST_CLASS	2	110	298	27.5	36.9	3.4	79.2	MEDIUM
Molyneux Park, Alexandra	FIRST_CLASS	4	210	288	35.0	72.9	11.1	66.0	MEDIUM
Hagley Oval, Christchurch	FIRST_CLASS	8	204	244	20.4	83.6	12.3	70.5	MEDIUM
Saxton Oval	FIRST_CLASS	2	104	226	52.0	46.0	4.4	74.3	MEDIUM
Molyneux Park	FIRST_CLASS	2	56	182	14.0	30.8	4.4	85.7	MEDIUM
Hagley Oval, Christchurch	T20	13	216	181	19.6	119.3	13.8	34.3	MEDIUM
University of Otago Oval	FIRST_CLASS	2	124	160	62.0	77.5	10.0	61.3	MEDIUM
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui	FIRST_CLASS	2	68	144	34.0	47.2	6.9	77.8	MEDIUM
Hagley Oval	T20	10	206	141	41.2	146.1	17.0	29.1	MEDIUM
Hagley Oval	FIRST_CLASS	6	30	126	5.0	23.8	3.2	87.3	MEDIUM
University Oval, Dunedin	T20	5	165	113	82.5	146.0	16.8	22.1	LOW
Kennards Hire Community Oval	FIRST_CLASS	2	60	108	15.0	55.6	9.3	77.8	LOW
Pukekura Park, New Plymouth	T20	2	144	98	144.0	146.9	19.4	29.6	LOW
Queen's Park	FIRST_CLASS	2	32	74	8.0	43.2	5.4	81.1	LOW
Basin Reserve, Wellington	T20	4	66	65	16.5	101.5	9.2	40.0	LOW
Fitzherbert Park, Palmerston North	FIRST_CLASS	2	48	60	24.0	80.0	13.3	73.3	LOW
Molyneux Park, Alexandra	T20	3	69	59	23.0	116.9	13.6	30.5	LOW
Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland	T20	3	61	57	30.5	107.0	10.5	33.3	LOW
Seddon Park, Hamilton	FIRST_CLASS	2	22	54	5.5	40.7	7.4	85.2	LOW
Molyneux Park	T20	2	45	38	45.0	118.4	7.9	28.9	LOW
Basin Reserve	T20	4	29	35	7.3	82.9	5.7	42.9	LOW
Seddon Park, Hamilton	T20	2	38	31	19.0	122.6	12.9	29.0	LOW

Bowling


Hagley Oval	FIRST_CLASS	60	40	0	4.0	—	LOW

By country

Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.


Unknown	FIRST_CLASS	82	4014	7010	34.6	57.3	7.5	72.6	HIGH
Unknown	T20	46	933	770	25.9	121.2	13.1	32.7	HIGH
New Zealand	T20	12	231	161	33.0	143.5	16.8	29.8	MEDIUM
New Zealand	FIRST_CLASS	6	30	126	5.0	23.8	3.2	87.3	MEDIUM

Bowling


New Zealand	FIRST_CLASS	60	40	0	4.0	—	LOW

By match phase

Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.


old_ball	FIRST_CLASS	88	3780	6558	34.4	57.6	7.5	72.4	HIGH
new_ball	FIRST_CLASS	28	264	578	22.0	45.7	6.6	78.5	HIGH
middle	T20	47	654	556	28.4	117.6	10.6	29.3	HIGH
death	T20	25	320	191	24.6	167.5	22.5	22.5	MEDIUM
powerplay	T20	25	190	184	27.1	103.3	14.1	51.1	MEDIUM

Bowling


old_ball	FIRST_CLASS	60	30	0	3.0	—	LOW

Against pace and spin

Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.


PACE	FIRST_CLASS	86	1864	3594	25.2	51.9	7.2	76.9	HIGH
SPIN	FIRST_CLASS	66	1630	2546	62.7	64.0	7.7	66.2	HIGH
UNKNOWN	FIRST_CLASS	48	550	996	25.0	55.2	7.8	75.7	HIGH
PACE	T20	52	612	468	25.5	130.8	15.6	34.0	HIGH
SPIN	T20	45	480	410	32.0	117.1	11.2	31.0	HIGH
UNKNOWN	T20	12	72	53	18.0	135.8	17.0	26.4	LOW

How these splits are used

The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.