Cricket betting

M Gilkes betting stats, splits & projections

Batter

Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.

Record by format

Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.


overall	FIRST_CLASS	86	3992	8680	27.3	46.0	5.3	76.3	HIGH
overall	LIST_A	31	883	961	32.7	91.9	10.6	49.7	HIGH
overall	T20	44	855	670	21.4	127.6	17.0	39.6	HIGH

Why we like it

Splits where M Gilkes scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.

Opposition: Queensland (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
1260 runs off 2586 balls in 18 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 48.7 vs 46.0 overall, average 39.4 vs 27.3 overall.
Venue: Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
468 runs off 866 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 54.0 vs 46.0 overall, average 39.0 vs 27.3 overall.
Venue: Drummoyne Oval, Sydney (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
330 runs off 778 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 42.4 vs 46.0 overall, average 41.3 vs 27.3 overall.
Venue: Brisbane Cricket Ground, Woolloongabba, Brisbane (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
380 runs off 716 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 53.1 vs 46.0 overall, average 47.5 vs 27.3 overall.
Venue: North Dalton Park, Wollongong (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
264 runs off 596 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 44.3 vs 46.0 overall, average 66.0 vs 27.3 overall.
Venue: Cricket Central, Sydney (LIST A)HIGH sample
324 runs off 356 balls in 8 LIST A matches — strike rate 91.0 vs 91.9 overall, average 46.3 vs 32.7 overall.

Risks

Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.

Opposition: Victoria (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
570 runs off 1562 balls in 18 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 36.5 vs 46.0 overall, average 16.8 vs 27.3 overall.
Venue: Bellerive Oval, Hobart (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
240 runs off 534 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 44.9 vs 46.0 overall, average 17.1 vs 27.3 overall.
Phase: powerplay (T20)HIGH sample
496 runs off 417 balls in 39 T20 matches — strike rate 118.9 vs 127.6 overall, average 20.7 vs 21.4 overall.
Opposition: Tasmania (LIST A)MEDIUM sample
123 runs off 160 balls in 7 LIST A matches — strike rate 76.9 vs 91.9 overall, average 20.5 vs 32.7 overall.
Venue: Junction Oval, Melbourne (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
98 runs off 244 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 40.2 vs 46.0 overall, average 16.3 vs 27.3 overall.
Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
62 runs off 200 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 31.0 vs 46.0 overall, average 7.8 vs 27.3 overall.

Against each opponent

Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.


Queensland	FIRST_CLASS	18	1260	2586	39.4	48.7	5.8	74.7	HIGH
South Australia	FIRST_CLASS	18	986	1944	35.2	50.7	6.2	75.2	HIGH
Victoria	FIRST_CLASS	18	570	1562	16.8	36.5	3.5	79.5	HIGH
Western Australia	FIRST_CLASS	16	598	1338	24.9	44.7	5.4	78.2	HIGH
Tasmania	FIRST_CLASS	16	578	1250	20.6	46.2	5.4	75.2	HIGH
South Australia	LIST_A	5	227	264	45.4	86.0	6.8	42.4	MEDIUM
Victoria	LIST_A	7	261	254	37.3	102.8	13.0	47.2	MEDIUM
Western Australia	LIST_A	8	195	205	39.0	95.1	11.7	51.2	MEDIUM
Tasmania	LIST_A	7	123	160	20.5	76.9	10.0	63.7	MEDIUM
Brisbane Heat	T20	7	205	154	34.2	133.1	15.6	33.1	MEDIUM
Adelaide Strikers	T20	6	157	116	26.2	135.3	17.2	35.3	LOW
Perth Scorchers	T20	7	148	112	24.7	132.1	18.8	41.1	LOW
Melbourne Renegades	T20	6	114	100	28.5	114.0	12.0	40.0	LOW
Queensland	LIST_A	4	77	78	19.3	98.7	14.1	50.0	LOW
Hobart Hurricanes	T20	8	95	67	11.9	141.8	26.9	44.8	LOW
Sydney Sixers	T20	6	64	61	10.7	104.9	14.8	45.9	LOW
Melbourne Stars	T20	4	72	60	18.0	120.0	16.7	48.3	LOW

By venue

Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.


Sydney Cricket Ground	FIRST_CLASS	22	856	1888	22.5	45.3	4.3	75.1	HIGH
Cricket Central, Sydney	FIRST_CLASS	10	418	902	29.9	46.3	6.2	76.3	HIGH
Karen Rolton Oval, Adelaide	FIRST_CLASS	8	468	866	39.0	54.0	7.4	74.8	HIGH
Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth	FIRST_CLASS	8	324	802	27.0	40.4	4.2	80.0	HIGH
Drummoyne Oval, Sydney	FIRST_CLASS	4	330	778	41.3	42.4	4.6	76.6	HIGH
Brisbane Cricket Ground, Woolloongabba, Brisbane	FIRST_CLASS	4	380	716	47.5	53.1	7.0	73.5	HIGH
North Dalton Park, Wollongong	FIRST_CLASS	2	264	596	66.0	44.3	4.7	75.8	HIGH
Bellerive Oval, Hobart	FIRST_CLASS	8	240	534	17.1	44.9	6.4	75.3	HIGH
Adelaide Oval	FIRST_CLASS	4	180	398	22.5	45.2	3.5	76.4	HIGH
Allan Border Field, Brisbane	FIRST_CLASS	4	168	372	21.0	45.2	5.4	75.8	HIGH
Cricket Central, Sydney	LIST_A	8	324	356	46.3	91.0	7.9	42.1	HIGH
Bankstown Oval, Sydney	FIRST_CLASS	2	166	264	83.0	62.9	9.1	74.2	MEDIUM
Junction Oval, Melbourne	FIRST_CLASS	4	98	244	16.3	40.2	4.9	81.1	MEDIUM
Melbourne Cricket Ground	FIRST_CLASS	4	62	200	7.8	31.0	3.0	86.0	MEDIUM
Sydney Showground Stadium	T20	14	265	188	24.1	141.0	19.7	36.7	MEDIUM
Junction Oval, Melbourne	LIST_A	6	161	156	32.2	103.2	12.8	44.9	MEDIUM
Manuka Oval, Canberra	T20	6	195	144	39.0	135.4	14.6	30.6	MEDIUM
Lavington Sports Oval, Albury	FIRST_CLASS	2	38	120	9.5	31.7	3.3	81.7	MEDIUM
Adelaide Oval	LIST_A	3	82	103	27.3	79.6	8.7	53.4	LOW
University of Tasmania Stadium, Launceston	LIST_A	1	46	63	46.0	73.0	11.1	63.5	LOW
North Sydney Oval, Sydney	LIST_A	4	56	62	14.0	90.3	14.5	62.9	LOW
Perth Stadium	T20	2	75	61	37.5	123.0	14.8	39.3	LOW
Carrara Oval	T20	2	69	58	34.5	119.0	13.8	36.2	LOW
Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth	LIST_A	3	54	57	27.0	94.7	12.3	54.4	LOW
Bellerive Oval, Hobart	LIST_A	3	47	56	15.7	83.9	8.9	62.5	LOW
Sydney Cricket Ground	LIST_A	1	51	49	51.0	104.1	16.3	59.2	LOW
Melbourne Cricket Ground	T20	3	41	49	13.7	83.7	14.3	59.2	LOW
Sydney Cricket Ground	T20	4	45	45	11.3	100.0	11.1	42.2	LOW
Adelaide Oval	T20	3	46	41	15.3	112.2	14.6	53.7	LOW
Allan Border Field, Brisbane	LIST_A	1	34	34	34.0	100.0	11.8	41.2	LOW

By country

Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.


Unknown	FIRST_CLASS	86	3992	8680	27.3	46.0	5.3	76.3	HIGH
Unknown	LIST_A	31	883	961	32.7	91.9	10.6	49.7	HIGH
Unknown	T20	44	855	670	21.4	127.6	17.0	39.6	HIGH

By match phase

Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.


old_ball	FIRST_CLASS	86	3430	7524	25.2	45.6	5.3	76.1	HIGH
new_ball	FIRST_CLASS	40	562	1156	56.2	48.6	5.9	77.7	HIGH
middle	LIST_A	22	562	622	43.2	90.4	9.0	44.7	HIGH
powerplay	T20	39	496	417	20.7	118.9	17.7	46.8	HIGH
powerplay	LIST_A	19	261	288	32.6	90.6	13.9	63.5	MEDIUM
middle	T20	20	276	198	21.2	139.4	14.6	27.3	MEDIUM
death	T20	5	83	55	27.7	150.9	20.0	29.1	LOW
death	LIST_A	6	60	51	10.0	117.6	11.8	33.3	LOW

Against pace and spin

Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.


PACE	FIRST_CLASS	84	2236	5198	25.4	43.0	5.2	79.0	HIGH
SPIN	FIRST_CLASS	72	1356	2746	29.5	49.4	5.0	71.7	HIGH
UNKNOWN	FIRST_CLASS	32	400	736	33.3	54.3	7.3	73.9	HIGH
PACE	LIST_A	29	512	569	28.4	90.0	11.1	53.3	HIGH
PACE	T20	40	523	421	19.4	124.2	17.6	44.7	HIGH
SPIN	LIST_A	21	311	335	62.2	92.8	9.3	44.5	HIGH
SPIN	T20	30	322	231	29.3	139.4	17.3	29.4	MEDIUM
UNKNOWN	LIST_A	7	60	57	15.0	105.3	14.0	45.6	LOW

How these splits are used

The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.