MD Rae betting stats, splits & projections
All-rounder
Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.
Record by format
Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.
| overall | FIRST_CLASS | 80 | 756 | 1576 | 9.4 | 48.0 | 6.7 | 77.9 | HIGH |
| overall | T20 | 12 | 41 | 32 | 13.7 | 128.1 | 21.9 | 28.1 | LOW |
| overall | TEST | 1 | 13 | 11 | 13.0 | 118.2 | 9.1 | 54.5 | LOW |
| overall | LIST_A | 2 | 8 | 7 | 4.0 | 114.3 | 14.3 | 57.1 | LOW |
| overall | FIRST_CLASS | 16562 | 9776 | 308 | 3.5 | 31.7 | HIGH |
| overall | T20 | 840 | 1293 | 54 | 9.2 | 23.9 | HIGH |
| overall | TEST | 392 | 226 | 8 | 3.5 | 28.3 | HIGH |
| overall | LIST_A | 156 | 104 | 5 | 4.0 | 20.8 | MEDIUM |
Why we like it
Splits where MD Rae scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.
- Opposition: Central Stags (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
122 runs off 170 balls in 10 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 71.8 vs 48.0 overall, average 20.3 vs 9.4 overall.
- Bowling type: UNKNOWN (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
96 runs off 164 balls in 24 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 58.5 vs 48.0 overall, average 9.6 vs 9.4 overall.
- Opposition: Otago Volts (FIRST CLASS)LOW sample
68 runs off 112 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 60.7 vs 48.0 overall, average 11.3 vs 9.4 overall.
- Opposition: Essex (FIRST CLASS)LOW sample
42 runs off 66 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 63.6 vs 48.0 overall, average 10.5 vs 9.4 overall.
- Venue: Cello Basin Reserve (FIRST CLASS)LOW sample
56 runs off 88 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 63.6 vs 48.0 overall, average 9.3 vs 9.4 overall.
- Venue: Fitzherbert Park (FIRST CLASS)LOW sample
58 runs off 74 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 78.4 vs 48.0 overall, not yet dismissed vs 9.4 overall.
Risks
Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.
- Bowling type: SPIN (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
250 runs off 652 balls in 44 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 38.3 vs 48.0 overall, average 11.4 vs 9.4 overall.
- Opposition: Auckland Aces (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
92 runs off 258 balls in 12 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 35.7 vs 48.0 overall, average 6.6 vs 9.4 overall.
- Opposition: Canterbury (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
54 runs off 204 balls in 10 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 26.5 vs 48.0 overall, average 13.5 vs 9.4 overall.
- Venue: Kennards Hire Community Oval (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
58 runs off 156 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 37.2 vs 48.0 overall, average 7.3 vs 9.4 overall.
- Venue: Molyneux Park, Alexandra (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
26 runs off 142 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 18.3 vs 48.0 overall, not yet dismissed vs 9.4 overall.
- Venue: Basin Reserve, Wellington (FIRST CLASS)LOW sample
30 runs off 94 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 31.9 vs 48.0 overall, average 3.8 vs 9.4 overall.
Against each opponent
Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.
| Northern Districts | FIRST_CLASS | 16 | 212 | 486 | 11.8 | 43.6 | 6.2 | 79.4 | HIGH |
| Auckland Aces | FIRST_CLASS | 12 | 92 | 258 | 6.6 | 35.7 | 5.4 | 82.2 | MEDIUM |
| Canterbury | FIRST_CLASS | 10 | 54 | 204 | 13.5 | 26.5 | 1.0 | 83.3 | MEDIUM |
| Wellington Firebirds | FIRST_CLASS | 14 | 96 | 198 | 5.3 | 48.5 | 6.1 | 74.7 | MEDIUM |
| Central Stags | FIRST_CLASS | 10 | 122 | 170 | 20.3 | 71.8 | 11.8 | 70.6 | MEDIUM |
| Otago Volts | FIRST_CLASS | 8 | 68 | 112 | 11.3 | 60.7 | 10.7 | 76.8 | LOW |
| Essex | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 42 | 66 | 10.5 | 63.6 | 6.1 | 69.7 | LOW |
| Somerset | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 56 | 48 | 14.0 | 116.7 | 20.8 | 62.5 | LOW |
Bowling
| Auckland Aces | FIRST_CLASS | 3374 | 1738 | 58 | 3.1 | 30.0 | HIGH |
| Northern Districts | FIRST_CLASS | 3198 | 1934 | 66 | 3.6 | 29.3 | HIGH |
| Wellington Firebirds | FIRST_CLASS | 2592 | 1658 | 50 | 3.8 | 33.2 | HIGH |
| Central Stags | FIRST_CLASS | 2496 | 1434 | 58 | 3.4 | 24.7 | HIGH |
| Otago Volts | FIRST_CLASS | 1902 | 1004 | 26 | 3.2 | 38.6 | HIGH |
| Canterbury | FIRST_CLASS | 1668 | 1160 | 22 | 4.2 | 52.7 | HIGH |
| West Indies | TEST | 392 | 226 | 8 | 3.5 | 28.3 | HIGH |
| Essex | FIRST_CLASS | 384 | 248 | 10 | 3.9 | 24.8 | HIGH |
| Somerset | FIRST_CLASS | 288 | 188 | 6 | 3.9 | 31.3 | MEDIUM |
| Worcestershire | FIRST_CLASS | 240 | 130 | 4 | 3.3 | 32.5 | MEDIUM |
| Lancashire | FIRST_CLASS | 216 | 118 | 6 | 3.3 | 19.7 | MEDIUM |
| Kent | FIRST_CLASS | 204 | 164 | 2 | 4.8 | 82.0 | MEDIUM |
| Central Districts | T20 | 204 | 299 | 11 | 8.8 | 27.2 | MEDIUM |
| Auckland | T20 | 179 | 282 | 14 | 9.5 | 20.1 | MEDIUM |
| Northern Districts | T20 | 171 | 272 | 12 | 9.5 | 22.7 | MEDIUM |
| Wellington | T20 | 114 | 178 | 8 | 9.4 | 22.3 | LOW |
| Canterbury | T20 | 112 | 180 | 6 | 9.6 | 30.0 | LOW |
| Glamorgan | LIST_A | 60 | 35 | 2 | 3.5 | 17.5 | LOW |
| Worcestershire | LIST_A | 60 | 54 | 3 | 5.4 | 18.0 | LOW |
| Otago | T20 | 60 | 82 | 3 | 8.2 | 27.3 | LOW |
| Nottinghamshire | LIST_A | 36 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 | — | LOW |
By venue
Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.
| Bay Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 72 | 162 | 36.0 | 44.4 | 3.7 | 72.8 | MEDIUM |
| Kennards Hire Community Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 58 | 156 | 7.3 | 37.2 | 6.4 | 83.3 | MEDIUM |
| Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 66 | 148 | 16.5 | 44.6 | 9.5 | 85.1 | MEDIUM |
| Molyneux Park, Alexandra | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 26 | 142 | — | 18.3 | 1.4 | 88.7 | MEDIUM |
| Mainpower Oval, Rangiora | FIRST_CLASS | 10 | 58 | 106 | 7.3 | 54.7 | 5.7 | 69.8 | LOW |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | FIRST_CLASS | 8 | 30 | 94 | 3.8 | 31.9 | 4.3 | 78.7 | LOW |
| Cello Basin Reserve | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 56 | 88 | 9.3 | 63.6 | 9.1 | 72.7 | LOW |
| Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 4 | 82 | 0.7 | 4.9 | 0.0 | 92.7 | LOW |
| Fitzherbert Park | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 58 | 74 | — | 78.4 | 13.5 | 70.3 | LOW |
| Molyneux Park | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 38 | 72 | 19.0 | 52.8 | 8.3 | 77.8 | LOW |
| County Ground, Chelmsford | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 42 | 66 | 10.5 | 63.6 | 6.1 | 69.7 | LOW |
| Edgbaston, Birmingham | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 70 | 60 | 11.7 | 116.7 | 20.0 | 63.3 | LOW |
| Hagley Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 52 | 58 | 13.0 | 89.7 | 13.8 | 58.6 | LOW |
| University Oval, Dunedin | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 18 | 58 | 3.0 | 31.0 | 3.4 | 86.2 | LOW |
| Mainpower Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 4 | 24 | 46 | 6.0 | 52.2 | 0.0 | 73.9 | LOW |
| McLean Park, Napier | FIRST_CLASS | 2 | 38 | 46 | — | 82.6 | 13.0 | 65.2 | LOW |
| Hagley Oval, Christchurch | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 8 | 42 | 1.3 | 19.0 | 4.8 | 95.2 | LOW |
Bowling
| Mainpower Oval, Rangiora | FIRST_CLASS | 2208 | 1262 | 42 | 3.4 | 30.0 | HIGH |
| University Oval, Dunedin | FIRST_CLASS | 1710 | 976 | 32 | 3.4 | 30.5 | HIGH |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | FIRST_CLASS | 1224 | 770 | 30 | 3.8 | 25.7 | HIGH |
| Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland | FIRST_CLASS | 1188 | 596 | 14 | 3.0 | 42.6 | HIGH |
| Hagley Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 1070 | 530 | 20 | 3.0 | 26.5 | HIGH |
| Hagley Oval, Christchurch | FIRST_CLASS | 1052 | 570 | 20 | 3.3 | 28.5 | HIGH |
| Kennards Hire Community Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 1044 | 610 | 18 | 3.5 | 33.9 | HIGH |
| Mainpower Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 786 | 464 | 14 | 3.5 | 33.1 | HIGH |
| Molyneux Park | FIRST_CLASS | 628 | 392 | 14 | 3.7 | 28.0 | HIGH |
| Cello Basin Reserve | FIRST_CLASS | 588 | 372 | 6 | 3.8 | 62.0 | HIGH |
| University of Otago Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 564 | 380 | 10 | 4.0 | 38.0 | HIGH |
| Edgbaston, Birmingham | FIRST_CLASS | 492 | 352 | 8 | 4.3 | 44.0 | HIGH |
| Saxton Oval, Nelson | FIRST_CLASS | 468 | 212 | 2 | 2.7 | 106.0 | HIGH |
| Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui | FIRST_CLASS | 456 | 414 | 12 | 5.4 | 34.5 | HIGH |
| Bay Oval | FIRST_CLASS | 408 | 170 | 4 | 2.5 | 42.5 | HIGH |
| County Ground, Chelmsford | FIRST_CLASS | 384 | 248 | 10 | 3.9 | 24.8 | HIGH |
| Seddon Park, Hamilton | FIRST_CLASS | 372 | 286 | 8 | 4.6 | 35.8 | HIGH |
| Queen's Park | FIRST_CLASS | 360 | 216 | 14 | 3.6 | 15.4 | HIGH |
| Queen's Park, Invercargill | FIRST_CLASS | 324 | 178 | 8 | 3.3 | 22.3 | MEDIUM |
| Fitzherbert Park | FIRST_CLASS | 312 | 226 | 6 | 4.3 | 37.7 | MEDIUM |
| Molyneux Park, Alexandra | FIRST_CLASS | 264 | 174 | 0 | 4.0 | — | MEDIUM |
| County Ground, New Road, Worcester | FIRST_CLASS | 240 | 130 | 4 | 3.3 | 32.5 | MEDIUM |
| Old Trafford, Manchester | FIRST_CLASS | 216 | 118 | 6 | 3.3 | 19.7 | MEDIUM |
| Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui | TEST | 212 | 115 | 2 | 3.3 | 57.5 | MEDIUM |
| Hagley Oval, Christchurch | T20 | 206 | 323 | 17 | 9.4 | 19.0 | MEDIUM |
| McLean Park, Napier | FIRST_CLASS | 204 | 130 | 6 | 3.8 | 21.7 | MEDIUM |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | TEST | 180 | 111 | 6 | 3.7 | 18.5 | MEDIUM |
| University Oval | T20 | 114 | 186 | 6 | 9.8 | 31.0 | LOW |
| University Oval, Dunedin | T20 | 107 | 158 | 6 | 8.9 | 26.3 | LOW |
| Edgbaston, Birmingham | LIST_A | 60 | 54 | 3 | 5.4 | 18.0 | LOW |
| Sophia Gardens, Cardiff | LIST_A | 60 | 35 | 2 | 3.5 | 17.5 | LOW |
| Molyneux Park, Alexandra | T20 | 48 | 64 | 2 | 8.0 | 32.0 | LOW |
| Saxton Oval, Nelson | T20 | 48 | 67 | 2 | 8.4 | 33.5 | LOW |
| Eden Park Outer Oval | T20 | 42 | 82 | 1 | 11.7 | 82.0 | LOW |
| Molyneux Park | T20 | 42 | 51 | 5 | 7.3 | 10.2 | LOW |
| Rugby School Ground | LIST_A | 36 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 | — | LOW |
| Basin Reserve, Wellington | T20 | 36 | 47 | 5 | 7.8 | 9.4 | LOW |
| Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland | T20 | 36 | 69 | 2 | 11.5 | 34.5 | LOW |
| Pukekura Park, New Plymouth | T20 | 36 | 48 | 2 | 8.0 | 24.0 | LOW |
By country
Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.
| Unknown | FIRST_CLASS | 74 | 704 | 1518 | 9.3 | 46.4 | 6.5 | 78.7 | HIGH |
| New Zealand | FIRST_CLASS | 6 | 52 | 58 | 13.0 | 89.7 | 13.8 | 58.6 | LOW |
| Unknown | T20 | 11 | 37 | 30 | 18.5 | 123.3 | 20.0 | 26.7 | LOW |
Bowling
| Unknown | FIRST_CLASS | 15492 | 9246 | 288 | 3.6 | 32.1 | HIGH |
| New Zealand | FIRST_CLASS | 1070 | 530 | 20 | 3.0 | 26.5 | HIGH |
| Unknown | T20 | 780 | 1180 | 53 | 9.1 | 22.3 | HIGH |
| Unknown | TEST | 392 | 226 | 8 | 3.5 | 28.3 | HIGH |
| Unknown | LIST_A | 156 | 104 | 5 | 4.0 | 20.8 | MEDIUM |
| New Zealand | T20 | 60 | 113 | 1 | 11.3 | 113.0 | LOW |
By match phase
Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.
| old_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 74 | 570 | 1198 | 9.5 | 47.6 | 6.0 | 77.6 | HIGH |
| new_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 32 | 186 | 378 | 9.3 | 49.2 | 9.0 | 78.8 | HIGH |
Bowling
| old_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 14084 | 8218 | 260 | 3.5 | 31.6 | HIGH |
| new_ball | FIRST_CLASS | 2478 | 1558 | 48 | 3.8 | 32.5 | HIGH |
| old_ball | TEST | 368 | 211 | 7 | 3.4 | 30.1 | HIGH |
| middle | T20 | 362 | 532 | 18 | 8.8 | 29.6 | HIGH |
| powerplay | T20 | 312 | 501 | 22 | 9.6 | 22.8 | MEDIUM |
| death | T20 | 166 | 260 | 14 | 9.4 | 18.6 | MEDIUM |
| middle | LIST_A | 102 | 54 | 2 | 3.2 | 27.0 | LOW |
| death | LIST_A | 36 | 43 | 2 | 7.2 | 21.5 | LOW |
Against pace and spin
Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.
| PACE | FIRST_CLASS | 70 | 410 | 760 | 8.5 | 53.9 | 7.6 | 75.5 | HIGH |
| SPIN | FIRST_CLASS | 44 | 250 | 652 | 11.4 | 38.3 | 5.2 | 82.2 | HIGH |
| UNKNOWN | FIRST_CLASS | 24 | 96 | 164 | 9.6 | 58.5 | 8.5 | 72.0 | MEDIUM |
How these splits are used
The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.