Cricket betting

TM Johnson betting stats, splits & projections

All-rounder

Every figure below is counted from stored ball-by-ball deliveries — no estimates, no averages copied from elsewhere. Splits with fewer balls behind them are marked LOW sample and carry less weight in the model.

Record by format

Formats are never pooled: a twenty-over record tells you nothing about fifty-over scoring, so they are modelled and shown separately.


overall	FIRST_CLASS	52	2312	5120	28.9	45.2	6.1	77.9	HIGH
overall	T20	39	612	537	19.7	114.0	13.4	39.5	HIGH


overall	FIRST_CLASS	276	120	2	2.6	60.0	MEDIUM
overall	T20	66	76	3	6.9	25.3	LOW

Why we like it

Splits where TM Johnson scores materially faster or lasts materially longer than their own baseline in the same format.

Opposition: Otago Volts (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
634 runs off 1172 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 54.1 vs 45.2 overall, average 79.3 vs 28.9 overall.
Venue: University Oval, Dunedin (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
626 runs off 1172 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 53.4 vs 45.2 overall, average 62.6 vs 28.9 overall.
Venue: Basin Reserve, Wellington (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
328 runs off 704 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 46.6 vs 45.2 overall, average 82.0 vs 28.9 overall.
Venue: Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
234 runs off 602 balls in 2 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 38.9 vs 45.2 overall, average 58.5 vs 28.9 overall.
Venue: Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
232 runs off 472 balls in 6 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 49.2 vs 45.2 overall, average 38.7 vs 28.9 overall.
Bowling type: SPIN (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
688 runs off 1764 balls in 36 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 39.0 vs 45.2 overall, average 68.8 vs 28.9 overall.

Risks

Splits pointing the other way — the conditions and opponents where the record is worse than usual.

Venue: Cello Basin Reserve (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
294 runs off 684 balls in 12 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 43.0 vs 45.2 overall, average 13.4 vs 28.9 overall.
Venue: Cobham Oval (New), Whangarei (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
116 runs off 324 balls in 4 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 35.8 vs 45.2 overall, average 19.3 vs 28.9 overall.
Bowling type: UNKNOWN (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
206 runs off 460 balls in 16 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 44.8 vs 45.2 overall, average 20.6 vs 28.9 overall.
Phase: new_ball (FIRST CLASS)HIGH sample
374 runs off 836 balls in 36 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 44.7 vs 45.2 overall, average 18.7 vs 28.9 overall.
Phase: middle (T20)HIGH sample
326 runs off 311 balls in 28 T20 matches — strike rate 104.8 vs 114.0 overall, average 20.4 vs 19.7 overall.
Opposition: Canterbury (FIRST CLASS)MEDIUM sample
78 runs off 192 balls in 8 FIRST CLASS matches — strike rate 40.6 vs 45.2 overall, average 5.6 vs 28.9 overall.

Against each opponent

Head-to-head record by format. Small head-to-head samples move the model very little — read the sample column before leaning on a line here.


Northern Districts	FIRST_CLASS	16	824	1872	31.7	44.0	5.6	76.9	HIGH
Otago Volts	FIRST_CLASS	6	634	1172	79.3	54.1	8.7	76.8	HIGH
Auckland Aces	FIRST_CLASS	10	410	996	34.2	41.2	4.6	77.9	HIGH
Central Stags	FIRST_CLASS	10	362	848	22.6	42.7	5.7	80.0	HIGH
Canterbury	FIRST_CLASS	8	78	192	5.6	40.6	7.3	82.3	MEDIUM
Auckland	T20	8	142	128	20.3	110.9	11.7	34.4	MEDIUM
Central Districts	T20	9	132	122	18.9	108.2	12.3	38.5	MEDIUM
Northern Districts	T20	7	138	112	23.0	123.2	15.2	41.1	LOW
Otago	T20	6	92	100	23.0	92.0	10.0	49.0	LOW
Canterbury	T20	7	84	65	14.0	129.2	16.9	36.9	LOW
Wellington Firebirds	FIRST_CLASS	2	4	40	1.0	10.0	0.0	90.0	LOW

Bowling


Northern Districts	FIRST_CLASS	180	72	0	2.4	—	MEDIUM
Wellington Firebirds	FIRST_CLASS	60	36	2	3.6	18.0	LOW
Central Stags	FIRST_CLASS	36	12	0	2.0	—	LOW

By venue

Ground-by-ground record. Venue effects are real but slow to prove, so grounds with few balls are shown for transparency rather than used as evidence.


University Oval, Dunedin	FIRST_CLASS	8	626	1172	62.6	53.4	7.5	72.9	HIGH
Basin Reserve, Wellington	FIRST_CLASS	4	328	704	82.0	46.6	7.7	80.4	HIGH
Cello Basin Reserve	FIRST_CLASS	12	294	684	13.4	43.0	7.0	81.0	HIGH
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui	FIRST_CLASS	2	234	602	58.5	38.9	4.3	80.4	HIGH
Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland	FIRST_CLASS	6	232	472	38.7	49.2	5.5	72.9	HIGH
Cobham Oval (New), Whangarei	FIRST_CLASS	4	116	324	19.3	35.8	3.7	80.9	HIGH
Fitzherbert Park	FIRST_CLASS	2	140	298	35.0	47.0	5.4	79.9	MEDIUM
Colin Maiden Park	FIRST_CLASS	2	66	244	33.0	27.0	2.5	83.6	MEDIUM
Seddon Park, Hamilton	FIRST_CLASS	2	126	232	31.5	54.3	8.6	73.3	MEDIUM
McLean Park, Napier	FIRST_CLASS	2	62	192	15.5	32.3	3.1	81.3	MEDIUM
Basin Reserve, Wellington	T20	13	184	179	16.7	102.8	12.3	43.0	MEDIUM
Basin Reserve	T20	9	133	126	22.2	105.6	9.5	36.5	MEDIUM
University Oval, Dunedin	T20	4	150	98	50.0	153.1	19.4	29.6	LOW
University of Otago Oval	FIRST_CLASS	2	34	82	8.5	41.5	4.9	80.5	LOW
Saxton Oval	FIRST_CLASS	2	32	62	8.0	51.6	6.5	74.2	LOW
Mainpower Oval	FIRST_CLASS	2	22	46	5.5	47.8	8.7	82.6	LOW

Bowling


University Oval, Dunedin	FIRST_CLASS	204	88	2	2.6	44.0	MEDIUM
Seddon Park, Hamilton	FIRST_CLASS	72	32	0	2.7	—	LOW

By country

Conditions vary more by country than by ground; this is the broader pitch-and-conditions view.


Unknown	FIRST_CLASS	52	2312	5120	28.9	45.2	6.1	77.9	HIGH
Unknown	T20	38	609	534	20.3	114.0	13.5	39.5	HIGH

Bowling


Unknown	FIRST_CLASS	276	120	2	2.6	60.0	MEDIUM
Unknown	T20	66	76	3	6.9	25.3	LOW

By match phase

Powerplay, middle overs and death. Phase splits drive the simulated scoring rate ball by ball.


old_ball	FIRST_CLASS	44	1938	4284	32.3	45.2	6.2	78.0	HIGH
new_ball	FIRST_CLASS	36	374	836	18.7	44.7	6.0	77.3	HIGH
middle	T20	28	326	311	20.4	104.8	9.6	36.7	HIGH
powerplay	T20	20	165	156	23.6	105.8	16.0	52.6	MEDIUM
death	T20	14	121	70	15.1	172.9	24.3	22.9	LOW

Bowling


old_ball	FIRST_CLASS	264	120	2	2.7	60.0	MEDIUM
middle	T20	48	57	1	7.1	57.0	LOW

Against pace and spin

Record against each bowling type faced, rolled up when a finer category has too few balls.


PACE	FIRST_CLASS	50	1418	2896	23.6	49.0	7.1	77.1	HIGH
SPIN	FIRST_CLASS	36	688	1764	68.8	39.0	4.4	78.7	HIGH
UNKNOWN	FIRST_CLASS	16	206	460	20.6	44.8	6.5	79.6	HIGH
PACE	T20	35	301	253	17.7	119.0	15.4	41.9	MEDIUM
SPIN	T20	29	256	228	21.3	112.3	12.3	37.3	MEDIUM
UNKNOWN	T20	13	55	56	27.5	98.2	8.9	37.5	LOW

How these splits are used

The same aggregates feed the ball-by-ball simulation behind every projection: format baselines, phase scoring rates, the bowling types a batter will face and the expected attack. See the current match projections on the cricket betting hub and the model's tested record on the cricket model performance page.