Premium Premier League betting tips
Must Bets are the handful of bets each week — players, teams and whole-match markets such as both teams to score, total goals, tackles and offsides — whose model shape already has a winning settled record. Every bet we advise is scored against the result, grouped by market, side, confidence and model chance, and a live price only appears here when its group has made money over at least 30 settled bets.
The record behind each pick comes from the same model that prices this market on our player boards, so the history and the tip are measured the same way.
Must Bets this week
No Must Bets right now
A selection only appears here when its exact shape has already returned a profit over 30+ settled bets. Quiet weeks are normal.
Winning shapes behind the Must Bets
Every shape below is drawn from bets we have already advised and settled. A shape needs 30 or more settled bets, a profit overall, and no collapse over its most recent quarter of bets.
| Shots on target sells with a model chance of 80–101% | 65 | 85% | — | +42% | +13.4u | +41% over last 17 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 50–60 | 41 | 90% | — | +40% | +236.0u | +64.1% over last 11 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 50–60 and a model chance of 80–101% | 40 | 90% | — | +37.4% | +215.0u | +63.6% over last 10 |
| Shots on target sells with an edge of 40–1000% | 88 | 81% | — | +36.5% | +15.8u | +48.2% over last 22 |
| Goal minutes sells with an edge of 40–1000% | 148 | 90% | — | +33.7% | +717.5u | +44.4% over last 37 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 78–85 | 42 | 93% | — | +32.3% | +233.0u | +2.6% over last 11 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 50–60 and an edge of 40–1000% | 35 | 89% | — | +31.6% | +159.0u | +69.9% over last 9 |
| Goal minutes sells with a model chance of 80–101% | 165 | 88% | — | +26.6% | +631.5u | +18.4% over last 42 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 60–70 and a model chance of 80–101% | 52 | 90% | — | +26.3% | +197.0u | +29.4% over last 13 |
| Card minutes sells with an edge of 20–40% | 123 | 87% | — | +24.3% | +514.0u | +0.9% over last 31 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 60–70 and an edge of 40–1000% | 49 | 90% | — | +24.3% | +171.0u | -1.1% over last 13 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 60–70 | 55 | 89% | — | +21.4% | +169.0u | +33.8% over last 14 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 50–60 | 72 | 88% | — | +16.6% | +205.0u | +20.4% over last 18 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 50–60 and a model chance of 80–101% | 62 | 89% | — | +15% | +160.0u | +26.9% over last 16 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 70–78 | 51 | 86% | — | +9.1% | +80.0u | +13% over last 13 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 40–50 | 55 | 89% | — | +8.4% | +79.5u | +58.2% over last 14 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 70–78 and a model chance of 80–101% | 50 | 86% | — | +6.6% | +57.0u | +13% over last 13 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 40–50 and a model chance of 80–101% | 51 | 88% | — | +2.1% | +18.5u | +60.5% over last 13 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 60–70 and an edge of 20–40% | 37 | 81% | — | +0.3% | +2.0u | +1.7% over last 10 |
Team shapes to follow
Shapes tied to a specific club, match official or home/away split that keep winning — each backed by 30+ settled team bets and still profitable on the recent check.
No team, referee or venue shapes qualify yet
Team shapes need 30 settled team bets of the same type before they are published — they build up gameweek by gameweek.
Models worth following
Model versions that have made money in a market over 30 or more settled bets.
| v1.0.0 | Goal minutes | 102 | 88% | +33.7% | +495.0u |
| v1.0.0 | Shots on target | 87 | 77% | +25.4% | +10.9u |
| v1.0.0 | Card minutes | 149 | 89% | +22.1% | +566.0u |
| v1.2.0 | Goal minutes | 76 | 87% | +17.8% | +194.5u |
| v1.2.0 | Supremacy | 44 | 43% | +9.9% | +6.3u |
| v1.2.0 | Total goals | 49 | 53% | +6.4% | +4.5u |
Questions about Must Bets
- What makes a tip a Must Bet?
- The model shape behind it — market, over or under, confidence band and model chance band — has already produced a profit over 30 or more settled bets and has not fallen away since.
- Where does the historic record come from?
- From our own settled picks in the same model market, scored against the actual result of each game.
- Why so few tips?
- Only bets that clear the evidence bar are published. On many weekends that means a short list or none at all.
- What are models worth following?
- Model versions that have made money in a market over at least 30 settled bets.