Team fixed odds value: goals, corners and cards
Live Spreadex over/under prices for team goals, corners and cards — plus match totals — priced against the team projection engine. Expected value is per £1 staked.
Team and match fixed odds value: goals, corners, cards and totals across the Premier League.
Team fixed odds markets are de-margined and compared with the same projection engine that prices our spread board, highlighting over and under selections where the bookmaker's implied probability disagrees with the model.
Coverage includes match totals, team totals, corners, cards, both teams to score and match result markets for every upcoming Premier League fixture.
Filters
Only selections with a live Spreadex price are listed. Fair probability removes the bookmaker margin using the under price when both sides are quoted. Odds refresh automatically in the background.
Value board
Model probability vs the live Spreadex price. Fair % is the margin-removed market probability; EV is per £1 staked. BET needs at least +8% EV and a 5-point probability edge.
Pricing team selections…
Over and under are both quoted, so the margin is removed by splitting the combined overround between the two sides. Team cards are priced as card counts by Spreadex; the spread-market booking points (10 per yellow, 25 per red) live on the Team spreads tab instead.
Totals markets and the true line
For every totals market the model produces a full distribution rather than a single number, so the probability of over 2.5 goals is read directly from the simulation instead of inferred from an expected-goals figure.
Corners and cards value
Corner and card markets are priced less tightly than goals. Corners follow shot volume and territory; cards follow game state, fouls and referee profile. Both regularly show larger edges than the headline match odds.
Comparing team fixed odds with team spreads
A fixed-odds over 2.5 goals bet and a buy on the total goals spread express the same view with very different payoff profiles. The fixed-odds version caps your loss at the stake; the spread version pays more when you are emphatically right.
Frequently asked questions
- Which team markets are priced?
- Live Spreadex over/under lines for team goals, corners and cards, plus match totals. Every line is compared with the team projection engine's probability for the same outcome.
- How is the bookmaker margin removed?
- Over and under are both quoted, so the combined overround is split between the two sides to produce a fair probability. The model's edge is measured against that de-margined price, not the raw implied probability.
- Why are team cards shown as counts rather than booking points?
- Spreadex prices fixed-odds team card markets as card counts. The spread-market booking points scale of 10 per yellow and 25 per red is used on the Team spreads model instead, so the two pages stay comparable within their own conventions.
- Are these team fixed odds selections betting tips?
- No. This is a modelling exercise published for information. Odds move, models are imperfect and all betting carries risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.