Player fixed odds value finder
The same Monte Carlo engine, priced against live Spreadex fixed odds for player shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls committed and attempted passes. Each selection is turned into expected value and a Kelly stake.
Premier League player fixed odds value finder: shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls and passes.
Live bookmaker prices for player props are de-margined into fair probabilities and compared with our Premier League projections, so you can see expected value, fair odds and a suggested Kelly stake for every selection.
The board covers shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls committed, passes completed and assists markets, and updates as prices move through the day.
Market calibration check
Each Spreadex ladder implies its own average. Where the model sits far from it, the gap is a modelling difference, not value — those selections are rated CALIBRATE instead of BET.
Capture prices and run the model to compare each ladder.
Filters
Only selections where a model distribution exists for that player and fixture are priced. Odds refresh automatically in the background.
Value board
Model probability vs the live Spreadex price. EV is per £1 staked; Kelly is the fraction of bankroll at full Kelly — quarter it in practice. CALIBRATE means the model's average disagrees with the whole priced ladder, and REFERENCE means the stat is estimated from a positional prior rather than measured data — neither is a bet.
Pricing selections…
Spreadex prices each “n+” threshold on its own, so there is no opposing selection to remove the margin against. The fair probability shown is the implied price haircut by an assumed 6% bookmaker margin. Verdicts require positive expected value, a probability edge over that fair price, and a likely start — fixed-odds player markets normally void if the player does not appear.
How to find value in player props
Value exists when a bookmaker's implied probability is lower than the modelled probability of the same outcome. Removing the overround first is essential — a 1.90 price in a two-way market with 5% margin is not a fair coin flip.
Expected value, fair odds and Kelly staking
Expected value is the average profit per £1 staked at the offered price. Fair odds are the price at which that expectation is zero. Kelly converts the gap into a stake fraction; most bettors should use a quarter or half of the full Kelly recommendation to smooth variance.
Why player props are beatable
Player markets carry lower limits and less sharp money than match odds, so prices are slower to correct after team news, tactical changes or a shift in set-piece duties. Those are exactly the inputs our projections update on.
Frequently asked questions
- Where do the fixed odds prices come from?
- Every selection is priced from live Spreadex fixed-odds player markets, captured and stored by the site. The page shows when prices were last captured, and movement arrows flag any change since the previous capture.
- How is expected value calculated on player markets?
- The Monte Carlo projection engine simulates each player's shots, shots on target, tackles, fouls and passes, producing a probability for every threshold. Expected value is the model probability multiplied by the decimal odds, minus one — shown as a percentage per £1 staked.
- What does the CALIBRATE verdict mean?
- Each Spreadex ladder implies its own average for the market. Where the model sits far from that market average, the gap is treated as a modelling difference rather than genuine value, and the selection is rated CALIBRATE instead of BET.
- Why does a selection need a high start probability?
- Fixed-odds player markets normally void if the player does not appear. The board filters to likely starters so the published expected value reflects bets that are likely to stand.
- What is the Kelly stake column?
- The Kelly criterion converts an edge into a bankroll fraction that maximises long-run growth. The figures shown are a guide only — most bettors stake a quarter of full Kelly to reduce variance and model risk.