Betting
Bet365 · Premier League season player odds
Bet365 season player odds vs our model
The same projection engine as the spreads page, converted to probabilities. Every bet365 season selection is listed by player, with each line compared against a Poisson distribution around the model's projected goals, assists or cards. Click a player to see his last three Premier League seasons.
Selections priced
158
Positive EV
4
Unmatched players
0
Odds captured
13 Aug 2026
Transfer & role adjustments
Same toggles as the spreads page — probabilities recalculate instantly.
Total goals
38 players · every bet365 "N or more goals" line
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 2.10 | 47.6% | 62.0% | 14.3% | +0.30 | 27.4% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 11.00 | 9.1% | 12.1% | 3.0% | +0.33 | 3.3% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 34.00 | 2.9% | 0.7% | -2.3% | -0.77 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 2.50 | 40.0% | 46.7% | 6.7% | +0.17 | 11.1% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 1.7% | -3.1% | -0.64 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 1.14 | 87.5% | 88.2% | 0.7% | +0.01 | 5.8% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 3.00 | 33.3% | 24.8% | -8.6% | -0.26 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 1.3% | -4.6% | -0.78 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.30 | 76.9% | 72.5% | -4.4% | -0.06 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 3.75 | 26.7% | 19.7% | -7.0% | -0.26 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 1.6% | -4.3% | -0.73 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.0% | -1.9% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.50 | 66.7% | 61.6% | -5.0% | -0.08 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 6.00 | 16.7% | 12.0% | -4.7% | -0.28 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.6% | -3.2% | -0.83 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 57.8% | -13.7% | -0.19 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 3.75 | 26.7% | 15.0% | -11.7% | -0.44 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 1.5% | -4.4% | -0.74 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.36 | 73.3% | 58.3% | -15.0% | -0.20 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 4.50 | 22.2% | 10.2% | -12.0% | -0.54 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 19.00 | 5.3% | 0.5% | -4.8% | -0.91 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 67.00 | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 1.29 | 77.8% | 54.5% | -23.2% | -0.30 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 6.00 | 16.7% | 2.9% | -13.8% | -0.83 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.7% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 1.33 | 75.0% | 50.5% | -24.5% | -0.33 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 9.00 | 11.1% | 2.2% | -8.9% | -0.80 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.30 | 76.9% | 50.4% | -26.5% | -0.34 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 4.00 | 25.0% | 6.9% | -18.1% | -0.72 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 15.00 | 6.7% | 0.2% | -6.4% | -0.96 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 3.75 | 26.7% | 15.7% | -11.0% | -0.41 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.5% | -4.3% | -0.90 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 3.50 | 28.6% | 15.8% | -12.8% | -0.45 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.1% | -1.9% | -0.96 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.18 | 84.6% | 45.1% | -39.5% | -0.47 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 2.88 | 34.8% | 5.2% | -29.6% | -0.85 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 13.00 | 7.7% | 0.2% | -7.5% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.73 | 57.9% | 29.5% | -28.4% | -0.49 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 7.00 | 14.3% | 1.9% | -12.4% | -0.87 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 29.00 | 3.4% | 0.0% | -3.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 17.8% | -18.6% | -0.51 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 15 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 0.6% | -5.3% | -0.89 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 20 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 34.4% | -37.0% | -0.52 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 5.00 | 20.0% | 2.7% | -17.3% | -0.87 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.1% | -4.7% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.40 | 71.4% | 32.4% | -39.0% | -0.55 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 5.00 | 20.0% | 2.3% | -17.7% | -0.88 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.7% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 or more goals | 1.67 | 60.0% | 26.6% | -33.4% | -0.56 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 30 or more goals | 3.50 | 28.6% | 5.3% | -23.3% | -0.82 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 35 or more goals | 11.00 | 9.1% | 0.5% | -8.6% | -0.94 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 40 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.30 | 76.9% | 32.8% | -44.1% | -0.57 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 4.00 | 25.0% | 2.4% | -22.6% | -0.90 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 17.00 | 5.9% | 0.0% | -5.8% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 1.20 | 83.3% | 33.9% | -49.4% | -0.59 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 2.50 | 40.0% | 4.7% | -35.3% | -0.88 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 9.00 | 11.1% | 0.2% | -10.9% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 30 or more goals | 29.00 | 3.4% | 0.0% | -3.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.25 | 80.0% | 28.7% | -51.3% | -0.64 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 3.25 | 30.8% | 1.8% | -29.0% | -0.94 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 15.00 | 6.7% | 0.0% | -6.6% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 12.3% | -24.0% | -0.66 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 13.00 | 7.7% | 0.7% | -7.0% | -0.91 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 2.00 | 50.0% | 16.2% | -33.8% | -0.68 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 9.00 | 11.1% | 0.5% | -10.6% | -0.95 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more goals | 1.10 | 90.9% | 25.0% | -65.9% | -0.73 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 10 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 0.3% | -36.1% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 15 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 20 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 25 or more goals | 101.00 | 1.0% | 0.0% | -1.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 30 or more goals | 251.00 | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.33 | 75.0% | 17.7% | -57.3% | -0.76 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 15 or more goals | 4.33 | 23.1% | 0.6% | -22.5% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 20 or more goals | 19.00 | 5.3% | 0.0% | -5.3% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| 25 or more goals | 67.00 | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.52 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 8.3% | -28.0% | -0.77 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 13.00 | 7.7% | 0.3% | -7.3% | -0.96 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 41.00 | 2.4% | 0.0% | -2.4% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.50 | 66.7% | 14.7% | -52.0% | -0.78 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 5.00 | 20.0% | 0.4% | -19.6% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 1.25 | 80.0% | 16.5% | -63.5% | -0.79 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| 20 or more goals | 2.75 | 36.4% | 1.2% | -35.2% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| 25 or more goals | 10.00 | 10.0% | 0.0% | -10.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| 30 or more goals | 34.00 | 2.9% | 0.0% | -2.9% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.87 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.10 | 47.6% | 8.3% | -39.3% | -0.83 | 0.0% | 0.61 |
| 20 or more goals | 7.00 | 14.3% | 0.3% | -13.9% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 0.61 |
| 25 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.61 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.20 | 45.5% | 7.0% | -38.5% | -0.85 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 8.00 | 12.5% | 0.3% | -12.2% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 2.10 | 47.6% | 6.7% | -40.9% | -0.86 | 0.0% | 0.44 |
| 20 or more goals | 8.00 | 12.5% | 0.2% | -12.3% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 0.44 |
| 25 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.44 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.25 | 80.0% | 9.8% | -70.2% | -0.88 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 3.50 | 28.6% | 0.2% | -28.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 15.00 | 6.7% | 0.0% | -6.7% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 51.00 | 2.0% | 0.0% | -2.0% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.80 | 55.6% | 6.1% | -49.5% | -0.89 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 8.00 | 12.5% | 0.1% | -12.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 or more goals | 1.73 | 57.9% | 5.3% | -52.6% | -0.91 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more goals | 6.00 | 16.7% | 0.2% | -16.5% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 25 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 2.88 | 34.8% | 2.2% | -32.6% | -0.94 | 0.0% | 0.65 |
| 15 or more goals | 19.00 | 5.3% | 0.0% | -5.3% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.65 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 1.57 | 63.6% | 1.6% | -62.0% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 0.64 |
| 15 or more goals | 6.00 | 16.7% | 0.0% | -16.7% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.64 |
| 20 or more goals | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.64 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 3.00 | 33.3% | 0.6% | -32.7% | -0.98 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| 15 or more goals | 19.00 | 5.3% | 0.0% | -5.3% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more goals | 3.50 | 28.6% | 0.3% | -28.3% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more goals | 21.00 | 4.8% | 0.0% | -4.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
Total assists
16 players · every bet365 "N or more assists" line
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.22 | 81.8% | 75.6% | -6.2% | -0.08 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 6.50 | 15.4% | 10.8% | -4.6% | -0.30 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.29 | 77.8% | 69.6% | -8.2% | -0.11 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 7.5% | -6.8% | -0.48 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more assists | 1.13 | 88.9% | 77.1% | -11.8% | -0.13 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more assists | 2.38 | 42.1% | 24.2% | -17.9% | -0.43 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 20 or more assists | 10.00 | 10.0% | 2.4% | -7.6% | -0.76 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.29 | 77.8% | 67.2% | -10.6% | -0.14 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 6.4% | -7.8% | -0.55 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.25 | 80.0% | 67.7% | -12.3% | -0.15 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 6.6% | -7.6% | -0.54 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.10 | 90.9% | 74.0% | -16.9% | -0.19 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 3.25 | 30.8% | 9.8% | -21.0% | -0.68 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more assists | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.2% | -3.7% | -0.95 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.17 | 85.7% | 61.3% | -24.4% | -0.28 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 4.50 | 22.2% | 4.5% | -17.7% | -0.80 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more assists | 67.00 | 1.5% | 0.0% | -1.5% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.22 | 81.8% | 56.8% | -25.0% | -0.31 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 6.50 | 15.4% | 3.4% | -12.0% | -0.78 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.17 | 85.7% | 57.8% | -27.9% | -0.33 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 10 or more assists | 4.00 | 25.0% | 3.6% | -21.4% | -0.86 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| 15 or more assists | 34.00 | 2.9% | 0.0% | -2.9% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 0.12 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.30 | 76.9% | 46.5% | -30.5% | -0.40 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 8.00 | 12.5% | 1.7% | -10.8% | -0.87 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.29 | 77.8% | 46.9% | -30.9% | -0.40 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 1.7% | -12.6% | -0.88 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.10 | 90.9% | 52.9% | -38.0% | -0.42 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 3.25 | 30.8% | 2.6% | -28.2% | -0.92 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 15 or more assists | 26.00 | 3.8% | 0.0% | -3.8% | -1.00 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more assists | 1.20 | 83.3% | 46.5% | -36.9% | -0.44 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| 15 or more assists | 2.88 | 34.8% | 5.6% | -29.2% | -0.84 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| 20 or more assists | 17.00 | 5.9% | 0.2% | -5.7% | -0.97 | 0.0% | 0.49 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.29 | 77.8% | 41.8% | -36.0% | -0.46 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 1.2% | -13.1% | -0.92 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.25 | 80.0% | 32.1% | -47.9% | -0.60 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| 10 or more assists | 7.00 | 14.3% | 0.5% | -13.8% | -0.96 | 0.0% | 1.00 |
| Selection | Odds | Implied | Model | Edge | EV / £1 | Kelly | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 or more assists | 1.20 | 83.3% | 24.3% | -59.0% | -0.71 | 0.0% | 0.65 |
| 10 or more assists | 6.00 | 16.7% | 0.2% | -16.4% | -0.99 | 0.0% | 0.65 |
Top team goalscorer
Every club's board with its priced players underneath. Model probability comes from 3,000 Poisson season simulations per squad; only squad members with a Premier League record are simulated, so clubs with an unpriced new signing will read high. Click a player for his history.
Simulating each squad…
How the odds are judged
- The projection (goals, assists or cards) becomes the mean of a Poisson distribution, giving the model probability of clearing each bet365 line.
- Implied probability is 1 / decimal odds, including the bookmaker's margin — edge is model minus implied.
- EV is the profit per £1 staked at those odds; Kelly is the full-Kelly stake fraction, so quarter-Kelly is a quarter of that number.
- Confidence carries over from the spreads model — it scales with minutes played and seasons of data, and should temper the Kelly figure.
Frequently asked questions
- How are Bet365 season odds compared with the model?
- Each Bet365 season player market is converted to an implied probability, de-margined, and compared with the model's Poisson probability for the same outcome. The difference is the edge shown on the page.
- What is expected value (EV) on a bet?
- EV is the average profit per £1 staked if the same bet were placed many times at those odds. A positive EV means the model rates the outcome more likely than the price implies.
- What is a Kelly stake?
- The Kelly criterion sets a stake fraction that maximises long-run bankroll growth given your edge. Most bettors use a quarter of the full Kelly figure to reduce variance and model risk.
- Are these betting tips?
- No. This is a modelling exercise published for information. Odds move, models are imperfect and all betting carries risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose.