FPL Insights
Disasi
DEFAxel Disasi · Crystal Palace · £4.5m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.3
xPts 3
4.1
xPts 5
6.8
Rating
16
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Disasi here
- ▸Away vs FUL: we project CRY for 1.27 goals (our difficulty 3.2/5)
- ▸23% start probability, 28 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.06 xG90, 0.03 xA90 (shrunk to 16 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW3: 5%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 62/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.8 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.51 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW3 at FUL
| Appearance points | 0.99 |
| Goal points | 0.11 |
| Assist points | 0.02 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.21 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | -0.02 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.3 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FUL (A) | 28 | 2% | 5% | 1.3 |
| 4 | IPS (H) | 28 | 3% | 9% | 1.5 |
| 5 | LEE (A) | 28 | 2% | 7% | 1.3 |
| 6 | NFO (H) | 28 | 2% | 9% | 1.5 |
| 7 | BHA (A) | 28 | 1% | 4% | 1.2 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)91%
Chance of 5+ points6%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.06
xA90
0.03
xGI90
0.09
BPS90
13.5
DefCon90
6.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.12
Minutes
16
Starts
0
Form
0.5
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FUL (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
| 2 | MCI (H) | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers