FPL Insights
Mingueza
DEFOscar Mingueza · Crystal Palace · £4.5m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.1
xPts 3
3.4
xPts 5
5.6
Rating
10
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Mingueza here
- ▸Away vs FUL: we project CRY for 1.27 goals (our difficulty 3.2/5)
- ▸15% start probability, 22 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.05 xG90, 0.06 xA90 (shrunk to 15 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW3: 4%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 67/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸5.6 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (1.25 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW3 at FUL
| Appearance points | 0.85 |
| Goal points | 0.06 |
| Assist points | 0.04 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.15 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | -0.01 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.1 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FUL (A) | 22.1 | 1% | 4% | 1.1 |
| 4 | IPS (H) | 22.1 | 2% | 7% | 1.2 |
| 5 | LEE (A) | 22.1 | 1% | 5% | 1.1 |
| 6 | NFO (H) | 22.1 | 1% | 6% | 1.2 |
| 7 | BHA (A) | 22.1 | 1% | 3% | 1.0 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)93%
Chance of 5+ points4%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.05
xA90
0.06
xGI90
0.11
BPS90
15.7
DefCon90
7.5
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
1.20
Minutes
15
Starts
0
Form
0.5
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EVE (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
| 2 | MCI (H) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers