FPL Insights
Gozo
MIDZavier Gozo · Crystal Palace · £5.0m · 0.0% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.4
xPts 3
4.4
xPts 5
7.2
Rating
16
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Gozo here
- ▸Away vs FUL: we project CRY for 1.27 goals (our difficulty 3.2/5)
- ▸18% start probability, 29 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.11 xG90, 0.11 xA90 (shrunk to 22 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.04 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 65/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸7.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.0m (1.45 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW3 at FUL
| Appearance points | 1.14 |
| Goal points | 0.16 |
| Assist points | 0.10 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.05 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.04 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.07 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.4 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FUL (A) | 28.9 | 3% | 5% | 1.4 |
| 4 | IPS (H) | 28.9 | 5% | 8% | 1.6 |
| 5 | LEE (A) | 28.9 | 3% | 6% | 1.4 |
| 6 | NFO (H) | 28.9 | 4% | 8% | 1.5 |
| 7 | BHA (A) | 28.9 | 2% | 4% | 1.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
1
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)91%
Chance of 5+ points4%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.11
xA90
0.11
xGI90
0.23
BPS90
14.3
DefCon90
8.3
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.82
Minutes
22
Starts
0
Form
0.5
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EVE (A) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
| 2 | MCI (H) | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers