FPL Insights
Bouaddi
MIDAyyoub Bouaddi · Man City · £5.5m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
📉 Fixtures Worsening⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
1.4
xPts 3
3.8
xPts 5
6.2
Rating
16
SELLHIGHConfidence: LOWFIXTURES TURN
Why we rank Bouaddi here
- ▸Home vs COV: we project MCI for 3.18 goals (our difficulty 1.0/5)
- ▸22% start probability, 22 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.13 xG90, 0.16 xA90 (shrunk to 8 mins of data)
- ▸Bonus model: 0.05 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 63/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸6.2 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £5.5m (1.12 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW3 vs COV
| Appearance points | 0.69 |
| Goal points | 0.36 |
| Assist points | 0.26 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.12 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.05 |
| Goals conceded | 0.00 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 1.4 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | COV (H) | 21.9 | 7% | 12% | 1.4 |
| 4 | MUN (A) | 21.9 | 4% | 7% | 1.1 |
| 5 | SUN (H) | 21.9 | 6% | 11% | 1.3 |
| 6 | LIV (A) | 21.9 | 3% | 4% | 1.0 |
| 7 | IPS (H) | 21.9 | 6% | 11% | 1.4 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
4
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)82%
Chance of 5+ points9%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.13
xA90
0.16
xGI90
0.29
BPS90
15.5
DefCon90
8.6
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
0.00
Minutes
8
Starts
0
Form
1.0
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
-0.1
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CRY (A) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers