FPL Insights
Pinnock
DEFEthan Pinnock · Coventry City · £4.5m · 0.1% owned · 1 pts
📈 Fixtures Improving⚠️ Rotation Risk
xPts GW
0.7
xPts 3
2.4
xPts 5
4.0
Rating
0
AVOIDHIGHConfidence: LOWSELL AFTER GW5
Why we rank Pinnock here
- ▸Away vs MCI: we project COV for 0.57 goals (our difficulty 5.0/5)
- ▸13% start probability, 19 expected minutes
- ▸Underlying: 0.04 xG90, 0.05 xA90 (shrunk to 12 mins of data)
- ▸Clean sheet probability GW3: 1%
- ▸Bonus model: 0.03 expected bonus points
- ▸Risk 68/100 — rotation uncertainty
- ▸4.0 xPts over the next 5 GWs at £4.5m (0.90 xPts/£m)
Points breakdown — GW3 at MCI
| Appearance points | 0.71 |
| Goal points | 0.02 |
| Assist points | 0.01 |
| Clean sheet points | 0.03 |
| Save points | 0.00 |
| Defensive contribution | 0.00 |
| Bonus points | 0.03 |
| Goals conceded | -0.02 |
| Cards / other | -0.05 |
| Predicted FPL points | 0.7 |
Fixture-by-fixture projection
| GW | Opp | xMins | P(goal) | P(CS) | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MCI (A) | 18.8 | 0% | 1% | 0.7 |
| 4 | BHA (H) | 18.8 | 1% | 2% | 0.8 |
| 5 | NFO (A) | 18.8 | 1% | 3% | 0.8 |
| 6 | NEW (H) | 18.8 | 1% | 2% | 0.8 |
| 7 | TOT (A) | 18.8 | 1% | 2% | 0.8 |
Next Gameweek distribution
Floor (10th)
0
Median
1
Ceiling (90th)
2
Chance of a blank (≤2 pts)98%
Chance of 5+ points1%
Chance of 10+ points0%
Underlying data (per 90, shrunk)
xG90
0.04
xA90
0.05
xGI90
0.08
BPS90
15.1
DefCon90
8.8
Saves90
0.00
xGC90
4.05
Minutes
12
Starts
0
Form
0.5
PPM
1.0
G+A vs xGI
0
Recent matches
| GW | Opp | Min | G | A | xG | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TOT (H) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
| 2 | HUL (H) | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 |
Data — · Model —. FPL projections are estimates, not guarantees. How the model works · Spread betting model · Free bet offers