Premium Premier League spread betting tips
Must Bets are the small number of spread selections that match a betting shape with a winning settled record. We score every bet we advise against the result, group those results by market, side, confidence and model chance, and only publish a live selection when its group has made money over at least 30 bets and has not fallen away since.
Returns are shown per unit risked: for spread bets that means points won against the typical points at risk in that market. Quiet weeks with no Must Bets are expected and healthy.
Must Bets this week
No Must Bets right now
A selection only appears here when its exact shape has already returned a profit over 30+ settled bets. Quiet weeks are normal.
Winning shapes behind the Must Bets
Every shape below is drawn from bets we have already advised and settled. A shape needs 30 or more settled bets, a profit overall, and no collapse over its most recent quarter of bets.
| Shots on target sells with a model chance of 80–101% | 65 | 85% | — | +42% | +13.4u | +41% over last 17 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 50–60 | 41 | 90% | — | +40% | +236.0u | +64.1% over last 11 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 50–60 and a model chance of 80–101% | 40 | 90% | — | +37.4% | +215.0u | +63.6% over last 10 |
| Shots on target sells with an edge of 40–1000% | 88 | 81% | — | +36.5% | +15.8u | +48.2% over last 22 |
| Goal minutes sells with an edge of 40–1000% | 148 | 90% | — | +33.7% | +717.5u | +44.4% over last 37 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 78–85 | 42 | 93% | — | +32.3% | +233.0u | +2.6% over last 11 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 50–60 and an edge of 40–1000% | 35 | 89% | — | +31.6% | +159.0u | +69.9% over last 9 |
| Goal minutes sells with a model chance of 80–101% | 165 | 88% | — | +26.6% | +631.5u | +18.4% over last 42 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 60–70 and a model chance of 80–101% | 52 | 90% | — | +26.3% | +197.0u | +29.4% over last 13 |
| Card minutes sells with an edge of 20–40% | 123 | 87% | — | +24.3% | +514.0u | +0.9% over last 31 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 60–70 and an edge of 40–1000% | 49 | 90% | — | +24.3% | +171.0u | -1.1% over last 13 |
| Goal minutes sells with confidence 60–70 | 55 | 89% | — | +21.4% | +169.0u | +33.8% over last 14 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 50–60 | 72 | 88% | — | +16.6% | +205.0u | +20.4% over last 18 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 50–60 and a model chance of 80–101% | 62 | 89% | — | +15% | +160.0u | +26.9% over last 16 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 70–78 | 51 | 86% | — | +9.1% | +80.0u | +13% over last 13 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 40–50 | 55 | 89% | — | +8.4% | +79.5u | +58.2% over last 14 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 70–78 and a model chance of 80–101% | 50 | 86% | — | +6.6% | +57.0u | +13% over last 13 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 40–50 and a model chance of 80–101% | 51 | 88% | — | +2.1% | +18.5u | +60.5% over last 13 |
| Card minutes sells with confidence 60–70 and an edge of 20–40% | 37 | 81% | — | +0.3% | +2.0u | +1.7% over last 10 |
Team shapes to follow
Shapes tied to a specific club, match official or home/away split that keep winning — each backed by 30+ settled team bets and still profitable on the recent check.
No team, referee or venue shapes qualify yet
Team shapes need 30 settled team bets of the same type before they are published — they build up gameweek by gameweek.
Models worth following
Model versions that have made money in a market over 30 or more settled bets.
| v1.0.0 | Goal minutes | 102 | 88% | +33.7% | +495.0u |
| v1.0.0 | Shots on target | 87 | 77% | +25.4% | +10.9u |
| v1.0.0 | Card minutes | 149 | 89% | +22.1% | +566.0u |
| v1.2.0 | Goal minutes | 76 | 87% | +17.8% | +194.5u |
| v1.2.0 | Supremacy | 44 | 43% | +9.9% | +6.3u |
| v1.2.0 | Total goals | 49 | 53% | +6.4% | +4.5u |
| v1.2.0 | Card minute supremacy | 36 | 58% | +0.4% | +22.5u |
Questions about Must Bets
- What makes a selection a Must Bet?
- Its exact shape — market, buy or sell, confidence band and model chance band — has already produced a profit across 30 or more settled bets, and has stayed profitable across the most recent quarter of them.
- How is the return worked out?
- Spread bets have no fixed stake, so we compare points won against the typical points at risk in that market across every settled bet. A positive figure means the shape has made money per unit risked.
- Why are there sometimes no Must Bets?
- Because the bar is deliberately high. If no live selection falls inside a proven shape, nothing is published rather than padding the page.
- What is the models worth following table?
- It shows which model versions have made money in which markets over at least 30 settled bets, so you can follow a model rather than a single bet.