Cricket betting

Bangladesh v West Indies betting tips, prediction & odds

Test Match · TEST · Wednesday 28 October at 04:00

Odds updated Tue, 27 Oct, 10:01 (UK time) · full refresh every day at 08:00, then hourly

Every number below comes from 5,881 ball-by-ball simulations of this match (model cricket-sim-1.0.0), run on real historical delivery data. Selections are not published as tips until the model passes backtesting.

Team news & expected XI

Official team sheets are used the moment they are published. Until then each XI is the model's own selection read: who this side has picked in this format, where they batted and how many overs they bowled. Form figures are exponentially weighted over the last year, so recent matches count for more.

Bangladesh

Expected XI from selection history

Order	Player	Role	Plays	Form runs	Overs
1	Mahmudul Hasan Joy	all-rounder	56%	50.4@ 54.6	2.0
2	Shadman Islam	batter	87%	42.3@ 59.1	0.0
3	Mominul Haque	all-rounder	97%	68.8@ 55.3	3.1
4	Nazmul Hossain Shanto	batter	92%	73.5@ 58.9	0.0
5	Mushfiqur Rahim	batter	90%	70.8@ 48.5	0.0
6	Liton Das	batter	79%	56.4@ 64.4	0.0
7	Mehedi Hasan Miraz	bowler	87%	39.1@ 47.7	33.1
8	Jaker Ali	batter	26%	47.6@ 55.4	0.0
9	Taijul Islam	bowler	92%	20.2@ 46.0	38.9
10	Hasan Mahmud	bowler	74%	13.2@ 28.4	24.0
11	Taskin Ahmed	bowler	45%	16.7@ 68.2	27.0
12	Ebadat Hossain	bowler	35%	9.4@ 57.3	18.0
13	Nahid Rana	bowler	51%	1.9@ 15.9	24.7

Last named squad (Bangladesh v Australia, 2026-08-22): Hasan Mahmud, Liton Das, Mehedi Hasan Miraz, Mominul Haque, Mushfiqur Rahim, Nazmul Hossain Shanto, Shadman Islam, Shoriful Islam, Taijul Islam, Tanzid Hasan, Taskin Ahmed

West Indies

Expected XI from selection history

Order	Player	Role	Plays	Form runs	Overs
1	JD Campbell	batter	58%	63.1@ 48.9	0.0
2	BA King	batter	65%	47.2@ 57.2	0.0
3	KAR Hodge	all-rounder	70%	50.3@ 39.9	7.8
4	AA Jangoo	batter	37%	71.8@ 58.5	0.0
5	A Athanaze	all-rounder	47%	41.3@ 51.9	3.0
6	SD Hope	batter	69%	78.5@ 47.9	0.0
7	RL Chase	bowler	76%	56.9@ 51.7	18.2
8	JP Greaves	bowler	90%	68.4@ 50.2	16.5
9	JA Warrican	bowler	50%	11.7@ 49.8	29.4
10	AS Joseph	bowler	40%	18.5@ 68.7	27.3
11	JNT Seales	bowler	96%	9.6@ 40.6	29.4
12	S Joseph	bowler	60%	26.7@ 110.5	27.7
13	KAJ Roach	bowler	57%	18.1@ 26.2	21.8

Last named squad (West Indies v Pakistan, 2026-08-02): AA Jangoo, BA King, JA Warrican, JNT Seales, JP Greaves, KAJ Roach, KAR Hodge, RL Chase, S Joseph, SD Hope, T Chanderpaul

Pitch & ground

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Shere Bangla National Stadium · TEST

Average 1st innings: 409.0
Average 2nd innings: 296.0
Runs per over: 2.93
Boundary balls: 556%
Pace economy: 3.50
Spin economy: 2.73
Chasing wins: 0%
Batting first wins: 10000%
Matches counted: 1

Weather at the start

No forecast is available: a match needs a confirmed ground with coordinates and a start time inside the next two weeks.

What we could not source

· No forecast is available for this ground yet.

Every live spread market

The full set of Spreadex spread lines currently priced on this match, exactly as captured. Sell below the lower figure, buy above the higher one. Where the simulation covers a market we show its expected makeup beside the price, the side that implies and the edge in points per £1 a point — comparisons, not tips, until the format clears backtesting.

Odds updated Tue, 27 Oct, 10:01 (UK time) · captured hourly from the live market

Drawn Match (Cricket)


Draw	13.3	18.2	—	—	—

Team Wins Match (Cricket) - Test


Bangladesh	50	54.6	—	—	—
West Indies	28.5	34.8	—	—	—

Win Index (25-10)


Bangladesh 25:10	14	15.5	—	—	—
West Indies 25:10	8.7	10.2	—	—	—

More TEST spread markets across every priced match.

Model vs market

The simulation output next to the live bookmaker price on every market we hold a price for. Fixed-odds edges are expected value per £1 staked; spread edges are the expected points gained per £1 a point. Positive numbers are where the model disagrees with the price — they are comparisons, not published tips.

What does “coin flip” mean?

It is a deliberately simple test: give each team a 50% chance in every decided, two-team match, without looking at players, form or the pitch. It does not mean every real match is evenly matched, or that our model literally tosses a coin.

We score the probability given to the actual winner, not just count correct picks. Lower is better. Always saying 50/50 scores about 0.69. A model saying 80% when that team loses gets a bigger penalty than one saying 55%. “Not better than chance” means its tested winner probabilities have not improved on that simple starting point — they are not a proven betting edge.

This test excludes draws and ties; it is not a three-outcome Test-match benchmark. Beating it still does not prove profit: the offered odds, bookmaker margin and settled returns matter too. A confidence score of 80/100 is not an 80% chance of winning.


Match winner	West Indies	37.5% (2.67)	2.88	back	+7.7% EV
Match winner	Bangladesh	51.3% (1.95)	1.83	back	-5.9% EV

Match winner projection


Bangladesh	51.3%	1.95	1.83	61.1%	-5.9%	—	61/100
West Indies	37.5%	2.67	2.88	38.9%	+7.7%	—	60/100

Bangladesh to win

Why we like it

Projected runs: 262.3 vs 239.4
The simulation gives Bangladesh a +22.9 run expected margin over West Indies, from 5,881 simulated innings.
Shere Bangla National Stadium · TEST: 100.0% of matches won batting firstLOW sample
Chasing sides have won 0.0% at this ground across 1 recorded matches, which is built into the simulated result.

Risks

Head-to-head: 1-5 in 7 stored TEST meetingsLOW sample
Bangladesh have won 1 of the 7 completed TEST matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 28 Oct 2026.
Bangladesh full record
Price comparison
Model 51.3% against 61.1% implied by 1.83 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — -5.9% per £1 staked.

West Indies to win

Why we like it

Head-to-head: 5-1 in 7 stored TEST meetingsLOW sample
West Indies have won 5 of the 7 completed TEST matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 28 Oct 2026.
West Indies full record
Price comparison
Model 37.5% against 38.9% implied by 2.88 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — +7.7% per £1 staked.
Shere Bangla National Stadium · TEST: 100.0% of matches won batting firstLOW sample
Chasing sides have won 0.0% at this ground across 1 recorded matches, which is built into the simulated result.

Risks

Projected runs: 239.4 vs 262.3
The simulation gives West Indies a -22.9 run expected margin over Bangladesh, from 5,881 simulated innings.

Team runs projection

Bangladesh

Projected 50-over innings total

262

median 249 · 10th–90th percentile 138–409

Wickets lost 8.4


200+	70.3%
250+	50.0%
300+	33.2%
350+	19.8%
400+	11.3%

confidence 61/100 · data 61/100

West Indies

Projected 50-over innings total

239

median 229 · 10th–90th percentile 124–375

Wickets lost 7.8


200+	62.4%
250+	41.5%
300+	24.7%
350+	14.1%
400+	7.1%

confidence 60/100 · data 59/100

Bangladesh runs

Why we like it

262.3 projected vs 409.0 parMEDIUM sample
Shere Bangla National Stadium · TEST averages 409.0 in the first innings over 1 matches; the model has Bangladesh below that by 146.7 runs.
Middle of the range 249.0, 10th–90th 138–409
Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 8.4 wickets lost on average.

West Indies runs

Why we like it

239.4 projected vs 409.0 parMEDIUM sample
Shere Bangla National Stadium · TEST averages 409.0 in the first innings over 1 matches; the model has West Indies below that by 169.6 runs.
Middle of the range 229.0, 10th–90th 124–375
Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 7.8 wickets lost on average.

Player runs projection

Expected runs today, not a career average: each player's chance of batting, expected balls faced and the opposition attack are simulated together.


Mushfiqur Rahim Bangladesh	43.9	31	105	90.0%	109	61.7%	35.7%	—	—
Nazmul Hossain Shanto Bangladesh	37.3	24	92	92.0%	82	55.7%	28.0%	—	—
JP Greaves West Indies	33.6	27	75	90.0%	86	60.7%	25.5%	—	—
Liton Das Bangladesh	33.4	21	88	79.0%	80	51.4%	25.4%	—	—
Mominul Haque Bangladesh	32.7	21	80	97.0%	71	51.8%	22.8%	—	—
Shadman Islam Bangladesh	30.5	16	84	87.0%	70	45.1%	21.9%	—	—
BA King West Indies	30.3	14	85	65.0%	82	44.0%	22.5%	—	—
KAR Hodge West Indies	29.4	16	81	70.0%	92	46.2%	21.9%	—	—
RL Chase West Indies	27.8	19	71	76.0%	77	48.7%	19.9%	—	—
SD Hope West Indies	25.3	15	68	69.0%	89	43.6%	18.0%	—	—
AA Jangoo West Indies	24.1	0	84	37.0%	106	30.9%	18.8%	—	—
Mehedi Hasan Miraz Bangladesh	23.7	16	60	87.0%	64	43.9%	15.1%	—	—
JD Campbell West Indies	21.8	9	62	58.0%	71	36.4%	15.1%	—	—
Mahmudul Hasan Joy Bangladesh	15.9	2	51	56.0%	64	24.8%	10.5%	—	—
A Athanaze West Indies	15.5	2	48	47.0%	54	27.5%	9.2%	—	—
Taijul Islam Bangladesh	14.7	10	36	92.0%	45	29.0%	3.8%	—	—
JNT Seales West Indies	13.8	11	30	96.0%	42	25.2%	1.8%	—	—
Hasan Mahmud Bangladesh	12.9	8	34	74.0%	53	26.3%	3.2%	—	—
AS Joseph West Indies	9.6	0	33	40.0%	40	19.5%	3.9%	—	—
Taskin Ahmed Bangladesh	9.2	0	30	45.0%	45	18.9%	2.7%	—	—
Jaker Ali Bangladesh	8.2	0	32	26.0%	62	15.1%	5.1%	—	—
JA Warrican West Indies	8.1	1	26	50.0%	30	15.0%	1.9%	—	—

Mushfiqur Rahim runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 109 balls at number 10
Opportunity drives the projection: 43.9 runs on average, 105 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 70.8 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 7 innings at a strike rate of 48.5.
Against spinHIGH sample
1631 runs off 2832 balls in 35 TEST matches — strike rate 57.6 vs 50.6 overall, average 56.2 vs 49.0 overall.

Risks

Against West IndiesMEDIUM sample
124 runs off 247 balls in 2 TEST matches — strike rate 50.2 vs 50.6 overall, average 31.0 vs 49.0 overall.
Against paceHIGH sample
1039 runs off 2496 balls in 36 TEST matches — strike rate 41.6 vs 50.6 overall, average 38.5 vs 49.0 overall.

Nazmul Hossain Shanto runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 82 balls at number 7
Opportunity drives the projection: 37.3 runs on average, 92 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 73.5 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 7 innings at a strike rate of 58.9.
Against spinHIGH sample
1197 runs off 2012 balls in 34 TEST matches — strike rate 59.5 vs 53.0 overall, average 47.9 vs 32.5 overall.

Risks

Against West IndiesHIGH sample
125 runs off 307 balls in 4 TEST matches — strike rate 40.7 vs 53.0 overall, average 17.9 vs 32.5 overall.
At Shere Bangla National Stadium, MirpurHIGH sample
401 runs off 715 balls in 9 TEST matches — strike rate 56.1 vs 53.0 overall, average 23.6 vs 32.5 overall.
Against paceHIGH sample
1109 runs off 2297 balls in 39 TEST matches — strike rate 48.3 vs 53.0 overall, average 25.2 vs 32.5 overall.

JP Greaves runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 86 balls at number 16
Opportunity drives the projection: 33.6 runs on average, 75 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 68.4 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 9 innings at a strike rate of 50.2.
Against BangladeshMEDIUM sample
139 runs off 265 balls in 2 TEST matches — strike rate 52.5 vs 51.4 overall, average 46.3 vs 33.5 overall.
Against spinHIGH sample
441 runs off 847 balls in 16 TEST matches — strike rate 52.1 vs 51.4 overall, average 40.1 vs 33.5 overall.

Liton Das runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 80 balls at number 14
Opportunity drives the projection: 33.4 runs on average, 88 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 56.4 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 6 innings at a strike rate of 64.4.
Against paceHIGH sample
1301 runs off 1962 balls in 40 TEST matches — strike rate 66.3 vs 60.7 overall, average 32.5 vs 37.8 overall.
Against spinHIGH sample
1332 runs off 2354 balls in 32 TEST matches — strike rate 56.6 vs 60.7 overall, average 51.2 vs 37.8 overall.

Risks

Against West IndiesHIGH sample
389 runs off 623 balls in 6 TEST matches — strike rate 62.4 vs 60.7 overall, average 32.4 vs 37.8 overall.
Only 79% likely to play
Taken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.

Mominul Haque runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 71 balls at number 6
Opportunity drives the projection: 32.7 runs on average, 80 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 68.8 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 7 innings at a strike rate of 55.3.
Against spinHIGH sample
1138 runs off 2007 balls in 35 TEST matches — strike rate 56.7 vs 51.2 overall, average 36.7 vs 32.2 overall.

Risks

Against West IndiesHIGH sample
253 runs off 562 balls in 5 TEST matches — strike rate 45.0 vs 51.2 overall, average 25.3 vs 32.2 overall.
At Shere Bangla National StadiumLOW sample
47 runs off 105 balls in 1 TEST match — strike rate 44.8 vs 51.2 overall, too few dismissals for a meaningful average.

Shadman Islam runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 70 balls at number 2
Opportunity drives the projection: 30.5 runs on average, 84 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 42.3 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 6 innings at a strike rate of 59.1.
Against West IndiesHIGH sample
174 runs off 408 balls in 2 TEST matches — strike rate 42.6 vs 51.7 overall, average 43.5 vs 27.1 overall.
Against spinHIGH sample
439 runs off 793 balls in 16 TEST matches — strike rate 55.4 vs 51.7 overall, average 39.9 vs 27.1 overall.

Risks

At Shere Bangla National Stadium, MirpurMEDIUM sample
142 runs off 267 balls in 4 TEST matches — strike rate 53.2 vs 51.7 overall, average 17.8 vs 27.1 overall.

How these projections are built

The model simulates the match ball by ball from historical delivery data: expected line-ups and batting positions, opposition bowling attack, venue scoring and format baselines. Each figure is the output of those simulations, never an estimate written by hand. Track its settled record on the cricket model performance page, and see the live prices on the cricket betting hub.