Cricket betting

Nigeria v Uganda betting tips, prediction & odds

World T20 Qualifier · T20 · Sunday 25 October at 12:50

Odds updated Sun, 25 Oct, 10:00 (UK time) · full refresh every day at 08:00, then hourly

Every number below comes from 9,741 ball-by-ball simulations of this match (model cricket-sim-1.0.0), run on real historical delivery data. Selections are not published as tips until the model passes backtesting.

Team news & expected XI

Official team sheets are used the moment they are published. Until then each XI is the model's own selection read: who this side has picked in this format, where they batted and how many overs they bowled. Form figures are exponentially weighted over the last year, so recent matches count for more.

Nigeria

Expected XI from selection history

Order	Player	Role	Plays	Form runs	Overs
1	Selim Salau	batter	80%	20.8@ 112.0	0.0
2	Ali Rahmon	batter	54%	16.5@ 115.4	0.0
3	Sulaimon Runsewe	batter	91%	16.3@ 99.9	1.0
4	I Danladi	all-rounder	97%	25.2@ 119.8	2.6
5	SA Okpe	all-rounder	97%	17.3@ 110.4	3.2
6	VD Adewoye	all-rounder	85%	14.2@ 135.8	2.8
7	P Useni	all-rounder	47%	11.6@ 165.6	2.8
8	IO Okpe	all-rounder	91%	9.8@ 120.5	3.2
9	K Boniface	all-rounder	48%	6.1@ 73.0	1.8
10	Abdullahi Ismail	all-rounder	50%	0.5@ 33.1	3.3
11	O Isiyaku	all-rounder	37%	2.5@ 35.5	3.2
12	P Aho	all-rounder	37%	5.6@ 76.7	3.5
13	Joshua Asia	all-rounder	40%	1.0@ 32.9	3.6

Last named squad (Namibia v Nigeria, 2026-06-23): Abdullahi Ismail, CM Akachukwu, I Danladi, K Boniface, Mohameed Taiwo, O Olaleye, S Chilemanya, SA Okpe, Selim Salau, Sulaimon Runsewe, VD Adewoye

Uganda

Expected XI from selection history

Order	Player	Role	Plays	Form runs	Overs
1	R Lutaaya	batter	50%	9.3@ 129.6	0.0
2	SG Mangela	batter	49%	24.2@ 116.7	0.0
3	Raghav Dhawan	all-rounder	88%	32.2@ 111.6	2.0
4	R Obuya	batter	82%	23.1@ 133.5	0.0
5	Riazat Ali Shah	all-rounder	67%	28.0@ 186.9	1.8
6	CN Kakuru	batter	69%	9.5@ 96.3	0.0
7	DM Nakrani	all-rounder	87%	13.4@ 118.5	3.4
8	AR Ramjani	all-rounder	87%	16.4@ 132.4	3.8
9	C Kyewuta	all-rounder	70%	5.4@ 102.7	3.3
10	J Miyaji	all-rounder	76%	7.0@ 125.1	3.4
11	J Baguma	all-rounder	40%	1.1@ 52.3	3.0
12	H Ssenyondo	all-rounder	61%	1.8@ 84.7	3.9
13	F Nsubuga	all-rounder	67%	4.7@ 123.9	3.5

Last named squad (Uganda v Sierra Leone, 2026-09-09): Anas Baig, C Kyewuta, C Musemez, CN Kakuru, J Baguma, J Miyaji, K Waiswa, M Musinguzi, Olipa Gerald, R Obuya, Riazat Ali Shah

Pitch & ground

Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, Abuja, Nigeria

Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1 · T20

Average 1st innings: 128.5
Average 2nd innings: 109.1
Runs per over: 6.54
Boundary balls: 1105%
Pace economy: 6.77
Spin economy: 6.29
Powerplay RPO: 6.17
Death RPO: 7.65
Chasing wins: 4170%
Batting first wins: 5830%
Matches counted: 24

Weather at the start

No forecast is available: a match needs a confirmed ground with coordinates and a start time inside the next two weeks.

What we could not source

· No forecast is available for this ground yet.

Every live spread market

The full set of Spreadex spread lines currently priced on this match, exactly as captured. Sell below the lower figure, buy above the higher one. Where the simulation covers a market we show its expected makeup beside the price, the side that implies and the edge in points per £1 a point — comparisons, not tips, until the format clears backtesting.

Odds updated Sun, 25 Oct, 10:00 (UK time) · captured hourly from the live market

Match Result


Nigeria to win match	13.3	20.8	42.1	buy	+21.3
Uganda to win match	79.3	86.8	57.4	sell	+21.9

More T20 spread markets across every priced match.

Model vs market

The simulation output next to the live bookmaker price on every market we hold a price for. Fixed-odds edges are expected value per £1 staked; spread edges are the expected points gained per £1 a point. Positive numbers are where the model disagrees with the price — they are comparisons, not published tips.

Honest health warning: across 146 replayed T20 matches the model’s match-winner probabilities have not yet beaten a simple coin-flip benchmark, so treat the match-winner comparisons below as work in progress rather than value. Run projections need separate validation; this does not establish a profitable team or player runs strategy.

What does “coin flip” mean?

It is a deliberately simple test: give each team a 50% chance in every decided, two-team match, without looking at players, form or the pitch. It does not mean every real match is evenly matched, or that our model literally tosses a coin.

We score the probability given to the actual winner, not just count correct picks. Lower is better. Always saying 50/50 scores about 0.69. A model saying 80% when that team loses gets a bigger penalty than one saying 55%. “Not better than chance” means its tested winner probabilities have not improved on that simple starting point — they are not a proven betting edge.

This test excludes draws and ties; it is not a three-outcome Test-match benchmark. Beating it still does not prove profit: the offered odds, bookmaker margin and settled returns matter too. A confidence score of 80/100 is not an 80% chance of winning.


Match winner	Nigeria	42.1% (2.38)	5.00	back	+110.4% EVFlagged
Match result index	Uganda to win match	57.4	79.3 – 86.8	sell	+21.9 pts
Match result index	Nigeria to win match	42.1	13.3 – 20.8	buy	+21.3 pts
Match winner	Uganda	57.4% (1.74)	1.14	back	-34.4% EVFlagged

“Flagged” means the gap between the model and the price is too big to be a real edge — we read it as a sign the model is missing something about this match, and it is one of the checks that keeps tips switched off.

Match winner projection


Nigeria	42.1%	2.38	5.00	18.6%	+110.4%	13.3 – 20.8	48/100
Uganda	57.4%	1.74	1.14	81.4%	-34.4%	79.3 – 86.8	48/100

Nigeria to win

Why we like it

Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1 · T20: 58.3% of matches won batting firstMEDIUM sample
Chasing sides have won 41.7% at this ground across 24 recorded matches, which is built into the simulated result.

Risks

Head-to-head: 0-8 in 9 stored T20 meetingsMEDIUM sample
Nigeria have won 0 of the 9 completed T20 matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 25 Oct 2026.
Nigeria full record
Projected runs: 92.2 vs 100.1
The simulation gives Nigeria a -7.9 run expected margin over Uganda, from 9,741 simulated innings.
Model and market disagree too far to trust
Model 42.1% against 18.6% implied by 5.00 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — +110.4% per £1 staked. A gap this size is more likely a data problem than an edge, so it is flagged rather than tipped.
Winner probabilities have not passed backtesting
Across 146 replayed T20 matches the model's log loss is 0.68 against a 0.69 coin-flip baseline, so this chance is shown as a comparison, not a tip.
Confidence 48/100, data depth 43/100
Confidence is scored from the ball-by-ball history behind these teams, how settled the XI is and how many simulations agreed.

Uganda to win

Why we like it

Head-to-head: 8-0 in 9 stored T20 meetingsMEDIUM sample
Uganda have won 8 of the 9 completed T20 matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 25 Oct 2026.
Uganda full record
Projected runs: 100.1 vs 92.2
The simulation gives Uganda a +7.9 run expected margin over Nigeria, from 9,741 simulated innings.
Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1 · T20: 58.3% of matches won batting firstMEDIUM sample
Chasing sides have won 41.7% at this ground across 24 recorded matches, which is built into the simulated result.

Risks

Model and market disagree too far to trust
Model 57.4% against 81.4% implied by 1.14 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — -34.4% per £1 staked. A gap this size is more likely a data problem than an edge, so it is flagged rather than tipped.
Winner probabilities have not passed backtesting
Across 146 replayed T20 matches the model's log loss is 0.68 against a 0.69 coin-flip baseline, so this chance is shown as a comparison, not a tip.
Confidence 48/100, data depth 39/100
Confidence is scored from the ball-by-ball history behind these teams, how settled the XI is and how many simulations agreed.

Team runs projection

Nigeria

Projected 20-over innings total

median 89 · 10th–90th percentile 47–143

Wickets lost 5.8

Powerplay runs 36


120+	22.1%
140+	11.3%
160+	5.3%
180+	2.1%
200+	0.5%

confidence 48/100 · data 43/100

Uganda

Projected 20-over innings total

100

median 95 · 10th–90th percentile 51–156

Wickets lost 4.3

Powerplay runs 44


120+	28.8%
140+	16.4%
160+	8.7%
180+	4.2%
200+	1.7%

confidence 48/100 · data 39/100

Nigeria runs

Why we like it

92.2 projected vs 128.5 parMEDIUM sample
Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1 · T20 averages 128.5 in the first innings over 24 matches; the model has Nigeria below that by 36.3 runs.
Middle of the range 89.0, 10th–90th 47–143
Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 5.8 wickets lost on average and 36.5 powerplay runs.

Risks

Model has run 16.4 runs low in testing
Measured over 146 replayed T20 matches, average error 33.3 runs.

Uganda runs

Why we like it

100.1 projected vs 128.5 parMEDIUM sample
Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1 · T20 averages 128.5 in the first innings over 24 matches; the model has Uganda below that by 28.4 runs.
Middle of the range 95.0, 10th–90th 51–156
Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 4.3 wickets lost on average and 43.6 powerplay runs.

Risks

Model has run 16.4 runs low in testing
Measured over 146 replayed T20 matches, average error 33.3 runs.

Player runs projection

Expected runs today, not a career average: each player's chance of batting, expected balls faced and the opposition attack are simulated together.


Raghav Dhawan Uganda	25.6	22	57	88.0%	26	54.2%	15.2%	—	—
I Danladi Nigeria	17.6	13	41	97.0%	18	36.0%	5.5%	—	—
Selim Salau Nigeria	14.3	11	34	80.0%	20	31.0%	2.9%	—	—
Riazat Ali Shah Uganda	13.3	3	42	67.0%	18	26.1%	6.7%	—	—
Sulaimon Runsewe Nigeria	13.0	9	32	91.0%	15	24.7%	2.5%	—	—
R Obuya Uganda	11.6	6	34	82.0%	13	21.8%	3.6%	—	—
SG Mangela Uganda	11.4	0	37	49.0%	19	24.7%	4.7%	—	—
SA Okpe Nigeria	10.8	7	27	97.0%	14	19.1%	1.1%	—	—
Ali Rahmon Nigeria	10.1	0	33	54.0%	18	20.5%	3.8%	—	—
VD Adewoye Nigeria	10.0	5	28	85.0%	10	19.0%	1.7%	—	—
DM Nakrani Uganda	9.6	3	29	87.0%	14	18.6%	2.4%	—	—
AR Ramjani Uganda	7.8	0	26	87.0%	12	15.1%	1.4%	—	—
R Lutaaya Uganda	7.1	0	23	50.0%	9	12.9%	2.2%	—	—
CN Kakuru Uganda	5.6	0	19	69.0%	10	9.3%	0.6%	—	—
IO Okpe Nigeria	5.3	2	15	91.0%	10	6.0%	0.1%	—	—
P Useni Nigeria	3.9	0	14	47.0%	7	6.4%	0.5%	—	—
C Kyewuta Uganda	3.8	0	14	70.0%	10	6.3%	0.3%	—	—
J Miyaji Uganda	2.9	0	11	76.0%	10	4.3%	0.1%	—	—
Abdullahi Ismail Nigeria	2.8	0	11	50.0%	9	3.4%	0.1%	—	—
K Boniface Nigeria	2.7	0	10	48.0%	10	3.1%	0.0%	—	—
O Isiyaku Nigeria	1.8	0	7	37.0%	9	2.1%	0.0%	—	—
J Baguma Uganda	1.3	0	3	40.0%	10	1.5%	0.1%	—	—

Raghav Dhawan runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 26 balls at number 6
Opportunity drives the projection: 25.6 runs on average, 57 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 32.2 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 5 innings at a strike rate of 111.6.
Against paceMEDIUM sample
318 runs off 261 balls in 19 T20 matches — strike rate 121.8 vs 110.0 overall, average 45.4 vs 31.7 overall.
Against spinMEDIUM sample
166 runs off 163 balls in 14 T20 matches — strike rate 101.8 vs 110.0 overall, average 41.5 vs 31.7 overall.

Risks

Against NigeriaLOW sample
99 runs off 92 balls in 5 T20 matches — strike rate 107.6 vs 110.0 overall, average 24.8 vs 31.7 overall.

I Danladi runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 18 balls at number 8
Opportunity drives the projection: 17.6 runs on average, 41 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 25.2 runs an inningsMEDIUM sample
Weighted over the last 17 innings at a strike rate of 119.8.
At Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, AbujaMEDIUM sample
352 runs off 288 balls in 10 T20 matches — strike rate 122.2 vs 118.5 overall, average 44.0 vs 26.2 overall.
Against paceHIGH sample
489 runs off 366 balls in 44 T20 matches — strike rate 133.6 vs 118.5 overall, average 28.8 vs 26.2 overall.

Risks

Against UgandaMEDIUM sample
133 runs off 141 balls in 8 T20 matches — strike rate 94.3 vs 118.5 overall, average 16.6 vs 26.2 overall.
Against spinHIGH sample
624 runs off 550 balls in 46 T20 matches — strike rate 113.5 vs 118.5 overall, average 25.0 vs 26.2 overall.

Selim Salau runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 20 balls at number 2
Opportunity drives the projection: 14.3 runs on average, 34 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 20.8 runs an inningsMEDIUM sample
Weighted over the last 15 innings at a strike rate of 112.0.
At Nigeria Cricket Federation Oval 1, AbujaMEDIUM sample
205 runs off 164 balls in 9 T20 matches — strike rate 125.0 vs 111.2 overall, average 25.6 vs 26.4 overall.
Against paceHIGH sample
495 runs off 426 balls in 35 T20 matches — strike rate 116.2 vs 111.2 overall, average 35.4 vs 26.4 overall.

Risks

Against UgandaMEDIUM sample
137 runs off 154 balls in 5 T20 matches — strike rate 89.0 vs 111.2 overall, average 27.4 vs 26.4 overall.
Against spinMEDIUM sample
211 runs off 247 balls in 25 T20 matches — strike rate 85.4 vs 111.2 overall, average 14.1 vs 26.4 overall.
Only 80% likely to play
Taken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.

Riazat Ali Shah runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 18 balls at number 11
Opportunity drives the projection: 13.3 runs on average, 42 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 28.0 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 5 innings at a strike rate of 186.9.
Against NigeriaLOW sample
133 runs off 100 balls in 5 T20 matches — strike rate 133.0 vs 125.5 overall, too few dismissals for a meaningful average.
Against paceMEDIUM sample
411 runs off 295 balls in 32 T20 matches — strike rate 139.3 vs 125.5 overall, average 34.3 vs 38.7 overall.

Risks

Against spinHIGH sample
456 runs off 423 balls in 36 T20 matches — strike rate 107.8 vs 125.5 overall, average 35.1 vs 38.7 overall.
Only 67% likely to play
Taken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.

Sulaimon Runsewe runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 15 balls at number 5
Opportunity drives the projection: 13.0 runs on average, 32 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 16.3 runs an inningsMEDIUM sample
Weighted over the last 18 innings at a strike rate of 99.9.
Against paceHIGH sample
853 runs off 730 balls in 66 T20 matches — strike rate 116.8 vs 109.5 overall, average 26.7 vs 21.7 overall.

Risks

Against UgandaLOW sample
103 runs off 118 balls in 8 T20 matches — strike rate 87.3 vs 109.5 overall, average 14.7 vs 21.7 overall.
Against spinHIGH sample
305 runs off 305 balls in 37 T20 matches — strike rate 100.0 vs 109.5 overall, average 16.1 vs 21.7 overall.

R Obuya runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 13 balls at number 7
Opportunity drives the projection: 11.6 runs on average, 34 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 23.1 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 4 innings at a strike rate of 133.5.
Against NigeriaLOW sample
149 runs off 110 balls in 6 T20 matches — strike rate 135.5 vs 122.0 overall, average 29.8 vs 20.7 overall.
Against spinMEDIUM sample
226 runs off 182 balls in 18 T20 matches — strike rate 124.2 vs 122.0 overall, average 32.3 vs 20.7 overall.

Risks

Against paceHIGH sample
338 runs off 302 balls in 31 T20 matches — strike rate 111.9 vs 122.0 overall, average 16.1 vs 20.7 overall.
Only 82% likely to play
Taken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.

How these projections are built

The model simulates the match ball by ball from historical delivery data: expected line-ups and batting positions, opposition bowling attack, venue scoring and format baselines. Each figure is the output of those simulations, never an estimate written by hand. Track its settled record on the cricket model performance page, and see the live prices on the cricket betting hub.