Cricket betting

Namibia v Ireland betting tips, prediction & odds

ODI · ODI · Thursday 22 October at 09:00

Odds updated Wed, 21 Oct, 11:00 (UK time) · full refresh every day at 08:00, then hourly

Every number below comes from 9,943 ball-by-ball simulations of this match (model cricket-sim-1.0.0), run on real historical delivery data. Selections are not published as tips until the model passes backtesting.

Team news & expected XI

Official team sheets are used the moment they are published. Until then each XI is the model's own selection read: who this side has picked in this format, where they batted and how many overs they bowled. Form figures are exponentially weighted over the last year, so recent matches count for more.

Namibia

Expected XI from selection history

Order	Player	Role	Plays	Form runs	Overs
1	M van Lingen	all-rounder	42%	42.1@ 98.1	2.0
2	N Davin	batter	43%	17.2@ 76.2	0.0
3	JN Frylinck	all-rounder	81%	15.2@ 56.7	5.0
4	JP Kotze	batter	78%	16.5@ 67.8	0.0
5	MG Erasmus	all-rounder	97%	28.3@ 68.6	7.3
6	ZE Green	batter	82%	17.4@ 57.9	0.0
7	MB Kruger	batter	87%	18.2@ 72.5	0.0
8	JN Loftie-Eaton	all-rounder	86%	22.5@ 70.9	4.9
9	JJ Smit	all-rounder	97%	14.6@ 62.0	6.8
10	R Trumpelmann	all-rounder	68%	16.0@ 81.8	6.8
11	JI de Villiers	bowler	37%	4.7@ 43.0	4.5
12	BM Scholtz	bowler	97%	7.0@ 65.4	9.5
13	T Lungameni	bowler	52%	1.7@ 27.7	7.7

Last named squad (Namibia v Canada, 2025-03-15): BM Scholtz, JI de Villiers, JJ Smit, JN Loftie-Eaton, JP Kotze, MB Kruger, MG Erasmus, N Davin, R Trumpelmann, T Lungameni, ZE Green

Ireland

Expected XI from selection history

Order	Player	Role	Plays	Form runs	Overs
1	PR Stirling	batter	97%	37.4@ 93.3	0.0
2	A Balbirnie	batter	97%	35.4@ 72.0	0.0
3	C Campher	all-rounder	72%	34.1@ 77.1	4.1
4	HT Tector	all-rounder	97%	32.1@ 79.5	3.0
5	AR McBrine	all-rounder	90%	15.6@ 97.1	7.4
6	L Tucker	batter	89%	32.2@ 100.0	0.0
7	GH Dockrell	all-rounder	97%	17.4@ 89.0	4.5
8	BJ McCarthy	all-rounder	45%	3.7@ 69.9	8.5
9	MR Adair	bowler	74%	14.0@ 90.5	8.2
10	CA Young	bowler	44%	15.0@ 119.5	7.7
11	GI Hume	bowler	53%	9.0@ 81.1	7.6
12	J Little	bowler	72%	5.3@ 87.1	7.9
13	MJ Humphreys	bowler	26%	0.9@ 55.2	7.5

Last named squad (West Indies v Ireland, 2025-05-25): A Balbirnie, AR McBrine, BJ McCarthy, C Carmichael, GH Dockrell, HT Tector, J Little, J Neill, L McCarthy, L Tucker, PR Stirling

Pitch & ground

High Performance Oval, Windhoek, Namibia

ODI average across all grounds

Average 1st innings: 237.8
Average 2nd innings: 198.3
Runs per over: 5.11
Boundary balls: 903%
Pace economy: 5.35
Spin economy: 4.95
Powerplay RPO: 4.69
Death RPO: 6.92
Chasing wins: 5144%
Batting first wins: 4856%
Matches counted: 867

Weather at the start

Temperature: 27.1°C
Rain chance: 0%
Cloud cover: 0%
Humidity: 15%
Wind: 14.1 kph
Interruption risk: 0%
Swing conditions: 8%
Dew risk: 0%

Forecast for the ground's coordinates at the scheduled start, taken 21/10/2026, 12:08:35. Swing and dew are read from cloud, humidity and the temperature–dew point gap.

What we could not source

· Pitch numbers shown are the format-wide average because this ground has no stored record.

Every live spread market

The full set of Spreadex spread lines currently priced on this match, exactly as captured. Sell below the lower figure, buy above the higher one. Where the simulation covers a market we show its expected makeup beside the price, the side that implies and the edge in points per £1 a point — comparisons, not tips, until the format clears backtesting.

Odds updated Wed, 21 Oct, 11:00 (UK time) · captured hourly from the live market

Match Result


Namibia to win match	31.5	37.6	37.9	buy	+0.3
Ireland to win match	62.4	68.5	61.2	sell	+1.2

Supremacy


Ireland/Namibia	19	29	21.5	sell	-2.5

More ODI spread markets across every priced match.

Model vs market

The simulation output next to the live bookmaker price on every market we hold a price for. Fixed-odds edges are expected value per £1 staked; spread edges are the expected points gained per £1 a point. Positive numbers are where the model disagrees with the price — they are comparisons, not published tips.

Honest health warning: across 29 replayed ODI matches the model’s match-winner probabilities have not yet beaten a simple coin-flip benchmark, so treat the match-winner comparisons below as work in progress rather than value. Team and player run projections are the better-tested part of the model.


Match result index	Ireland to win match	61.2	62.4 – 68.5	sell	+1.2 pts
Match result index	Namibia to win match	37.9	31.5 – 37.6	buy	+0.3 pts
Match winner	Namibia	37.9% (2.64)	2.63	back	-0.5% EV
Supremacy	Ireland/Namibia	21.5	19 – 29	sell	-2.5 runs
Match winner	Ireland	61.2% (1.63)	1.47	back	-9.9% EV

Match winner projection


Namibia	37.9%	2.64	2.63	35.9%	-0.5%	31.5 – 37.6	61/100
Ireland	61.2%	1.63	1.47	64.1%	-9.9%	62.4 – 68.5	60/100

Namibia to win

Why we like it

Head-to-head: 0-0 in 1 stored ODI meetingLOW sample
Namibia have won 0 of the 1 completed ODI matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 22 Oct 2026.
Namibia full record

Risks

Projected runs: 169.7 vs 191.2
The simulation gives Namibia a -21.5 run expected margin over Ireland, from 9,943 simulated innings.
Price comparison
Model 37.9% against 35.9% implied by 2.63 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — -0.5% per £1 staked.
Winner probabilities have not passed backtesting
Across 29 replayed ODI matches the model's log loss is 0.7509 against a 0.6931 coin-flip baseline, so this chance is shown as a comparison, not a tip.

Ireland to win

Why we like it

Head-to-head: 0-0 in 1 stored ODI meetingLOW sample
Ireland have won 0 of the 1 completed ODI matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 22 Oct 2026.
Ireland full record
Projected runs: 191.2 vs 169.7
The simulation gives Ireland a +21.5 run expected margin over Namibia, from 9,943 simulated innings.

Risks

Price comparison
Model 61.2% against 64.1% implied by 1.47 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — -9.9% per £1 staked.
Winner probabilities have not passed backtesting
Across 29 replayed ODI matches the model's log loss is 0.7509 against a 0.6931 coin-flip baseline, so this chance is shown as a comparison, not a tip.

Supremacy spread

Ireland/Namibia

Market 19 – 29 · model expected margin 21.5 runs

Model edge: sell -2.5 runs per £1 a point

Team runs projection

Namibia

Projected 50-over innings total

170

median 160 · 10th–90th percentile 82–273

Wickets lost 4.7

Powerplay runs 46


120+	72.7%
140+	61.6%
160+	50.3%
180+	39.9%
200+	31.3%

confidence 61/100 · data 61/100

Ireland

Projected 50-over innings total

191

median 185 · 10th–90th percentile 98–294

Wickets lost 6.0

Powerplay runs 36


120+	82.5%
140+	72.8%
160+	62.6%
180+	52.8%
200+	43.2%

confidence 60/100 · data 61/100

Namibia runs

Why we like it

169.7 projected vs 237.8 parLOW sample
ODI average across all grounds averages 237.8 in the first innings over 867 matches; the model has Namibia below that by 68.2 runs.
Middle of the range 160.0, 10th–90th 82–273
Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 4.7 wickets lost on average and 45.6 powerplay runs.

Risks

Model has run 3.8 runs high in testing
Measured over 29 replayed ODI matches, average error 62.5 runs.

Ireland runs

Why we like it

191.2 projected vs 237.8 parLOW sample
ODI average across all grounds averages 237.8 in the first innings over 867 matches; the model has Ireland below that by 46.7 runs.
Middle of the range 185.0, 10th–90th 98–294
Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 6.0 wickets lost on average and 35.8 powerplay runs.

Risks

Model has run 3.8 runs high in testing
Measured over 29 replayed ODI matches, average error 62.5 runs.

Player runs projection

Expected runs today, not a career average: each player's chance of batting, expected balls faced and the opposition attack are simulated together.


PR Stirling Ireland	38.6	26	94	97.0%	51	57.4%	29.8%	—	—
MG Erasmus Namibia	37.6	30	85	97.0%	55	62.9%	30.4%	—	—
HT Tector Ireland	36.9	27	89	97.0%	53	58.3%	30.1%	—	—
A Balbirnie Ireland	28.9	12	83	97.0%	49	40.4%	24.0%	—	—
M van Lingen Namibia	24.9	0	86	42.0%	58	34.4%	21.3%	—	—
C Campher Ireland	23.5	13	65	72.0%	46	41.5%	16.6%	—	—
JN Frylinck Namibia	18.9	10	52	81.0%	37	34.5%	11.0%	—	—
ZE Green Namibia	17.0	8	48	82.0%	33	32.0%	9.4%	—	—
GH Dockrell Ireland	16.6	9	46	97.0%	27	32.6%	8.5%	—	—
JP Kotze Namibia	15.5	7	44	78.0%	27	27.6%	8.3%	—	—
L Tucker Ireland	13.7	6	39	89.0%	24	26.1%	5.7%	—	—
AR McBrine Ireland	13.2	7	36	90.0%	26	24.6%	4.8%	—	—
JN Loftie-Eaton Namibia	13.2	2	42	86.0%	31	26.2%	6.7%	—	—
N Davin Namibia	13.2	0	46	43.0%	31	22.7%	8.9%	—	—
MB Kruger Namibia	12.6	4	38	87.0%	26	23.9%	5.3%	—	—
JJ Smit Namibia	10.0	0	33	97.0%	25	19.9%	4.1%	—	—
MR Adair Ireland	7.5	0	26	74.0%	14	14.9%	1.8%	—	—
R Trumpelmann Namibia	5.2	0	20	68.0%	20	10.3%	1.9%	—	—
CA Young Ireland	4.4	0	17	44.0%	18	8.4%	1.2%	—	—
GI Hume Ireland	4.0	0	15	53.0%	19	6.9%	0.3%	—	—
BJ McCarthy Ireland	3.9	0	15	45.0%	16	6.9%	0.7%	—	—
JI de Villiers Namibia	1.7	0	3	37.0%	19	3.2%	0.2%	—	—

PR Stirling runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 51 balls at number 1
Opportunity drives the projection: 38.6 runs on average, 94 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 37.4 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 0 innings at a strike rate of 93.3.
Against spinHIGH sample
376 runs off 398 balls in 16 ODI matches — strike rate 94.5 vs 86.7 overall, average 41.8 vs 35.6 overall.

Risks

Against paceHIGH sample
833 runs off 1028 balls in 39 ODI matches — strike rate 81.0 vs 86.7 overall, average 34.7 vs 35.6 overall.

MG Erasmus runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 55 balls at number 6
Opportunity drives the projection: 37.6 runs on average, 85 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 28.3 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 0 innings at a strike rate of 68.6.

HT Tector runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 53 balls at number 6
Opportunity drives the projection: 36.9 runs on average, 89 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 32.1 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 0 innings at a strike rate of 79.5.
Against paceHIGH sample
839 runs off 923 balls in 40 ODI matches — strike rate 90.9 vs 85.2 overall, average 46.6 vs 47.7 overall.

Risks

Against spinHIGH sample
677 runs off 834 balls in 35 ODI matches — strike rate 81.2 vs 85.2 overall, average 37.6 vs 47.7 overall.

A Balbirnie runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 49 balls at number 2
Opportunity drives the projection: 28.9 runs on average, 83 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 35.4 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 0 innings at a strike rate of 72.0.
Against spinHIGH sample
510 runs off 636 balls in 21 ODI matches — strike rate 80.2 vs 72.4 overall, average 102.0 vs 34.1 overall.

Risks

Against paceHIGH sample
551 runs off 838 balls in 38 ODI matches — strike rate 65.8 vs 72.4 overall, average 22.0 vs 34.1 overall.

M van Lingen runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 58 balls at number 2
Opportunity drives the projection: 24.9 runs on average, 86 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 42.1 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 0 innings at a strike rate of 98.1.

Risks

Against spinHIGH sample
519 runs off 551 balls in 28 ODI matches — strike rate 94.2 vs 92.8 overall, average 34.6 vs 40.6 overall.
Only 42% likely to play
Taken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.

C Campher runs

Why we like it

Expected to face 46 balls at number 3
Opportunity drives the projection: 23.5 runs on average, 65 in the top 10% of simulations.
Recent form 34.1 runs an inningsLOW sample
Weighted over the last 0 innings at a strike rate of 77.1.

Risks

Only 72% likely to play
Taken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.

How these projections are built

The model simulates the match ball by ball from historical delivery data: expected line-ups and batting positions, opposition bowling attack, venue scoring and format baselines. Each figure is the output of those simulations, never an estimate written by hand. Track its settled record on the cricket model performance page, and see the live prices on the cricket betting hub.