Australia v New Zealand betting tips, prediction & odds
Women's T20I · T20I · Thursday 22 October at 09:15
Odds updated (UK time) · full refresh every day at 08:00, then hourly
Every number below comes from 9,999 ball-by-ball simulations of this match (model cricket-sim-1.0.0), run on real historical delivery data. Selections are not published as tips until the model passes backtesting.
Team news & expected XI
Official team sheets are used the moment they are published. Until then each XI is the model's own selection read: who this side has picked in this format, where they batted and how many overs they bowled. Form figures are exponentially weighted over the last year, so recent matches count for more.
Australia
No selection historyNo expected XI: we have no recorded selection history for this side in this format.
New Zealand
No selection historyNo expected XI: we have no recorded selection history for this side in this format.
Pitch & ground
North Sydney Oval, Sydney, Australia
North Sydney Oval · T20I
- Average 1st innings
- 156.0
- Average 2nd innings
- 160.3
- Runs per over
- 9.55
- Boundary balls
- 2331%
- Pace economy
- 10.20
- Spin economy
- 8.80
- Powerplay RPO
- 8.25
- Death RPO
- 10.69
- Chasing wins
- 10000%
- Batting first wins
- 0%
- Matches counted
- 4
Weather at the start
- Temperature
- 19.2°C
- Rain chance
- 66%
- Cloud cover
- 100%
- Humidity
- 85%
- Wind
- 23.3 kph
- Interruption risk
- 66%
- Swing conditions
- 93%
- Dew risk
- 74%
Forecast for the ground's coordinates at the scheduled start, taken 21/10/2026, 12:10:01. Swing and dew are read from cloud, humidity and the temperature–dew point gap.
What we could not source
- · Australia: we have no selection history for this side in T20I, so no expected XI is shown.
- · New Zealand: we have no selection history for this side in T20I, so no expected XI is shown.
Every live spread market
The full set of Spreadex spread lines currently priced on this match, exactly as captured. Sell below the lower figure, buy above the higher one. Where the simulation covers a market we show its expected makeup beside the price, the side that implies and the edge in points per £1 a point — comparisons, not tips, until the format clears backtesting.
Odds updated (UK time) · captured hourly from the live market
Match Result
| Australia (W) to win match | 86.3 | 93.1 | 66.4 | sell | +19.9 |
| New Zealand (W) to win match | 6.9 | 13.7 | 30.3 | buy | +16.6 |
Supremacy
| Australia (W)/New Zealand (W) | 51 | 59 | 7.1 | sell | +43.9 |
More T20I spread markets across every priced match.
Model vs market
The simulation output next to the live bookmaker price on every market we hold a price for. Fixed-odds edges are expected value per £1 staked; spread edges are the expected points gained per £1 a point. Positive numbers are where the model disagrees with the price — they are comparisons, not published tips.
| Match winner | New Zealand | 30.3% (3.30) | 7.50 | back | +127.6% EVFlagged |
| Supremacy | Australia (W)/New Zealand (W) | 7.1 | 51 – 59 | sell | +43.9 runs |
| Match result index | Australia to win match | 66.4 | 86.3 – 93.1 | sell | +19.9 pts |
| Match result index | New Zealand to win match | 30.3 | 6.9 – 13.7 | buy | +16.6 pts |
| Match winner | Australia | 66.4% (1.51) | 1.07 | back | -28.9% EV |
“Flagged” means the gap between the model and the price is too big to be a real edge — we read it as a sign the model is missing something about this match, and it is one of the checks that keeps tips switched off.
Match winner projection
| Australia | 66.4% | 1.51 | 1.07 | 87.5% | -28.9% | 86.3 – 93.1 | 50/100 |
| New Zealand | 30.3% | 3.30 | 7.50 | 12.5% | +127.6% | 6.9 – 13.7 | 66/100 |
Australia to win
- Head-to-head: 0-0 in 3 stored T20I meetingsLOW sampleAustralia have won 0 of the 3 completed T20I matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 22 Oct 2026.Australia full record
- Projected runs: 144.3 vs 137.1The simulation gives Australia a +7.1 run expected margin over New Zealand, from 9,999 simulated innings.
- North Sydney Oval · T20I: 0.0% of matches won batting firstLOW sampleChasing sides have won 100.0% at this ground across 4 recorded matches, which is built into the simulated result.
- Price comparisonModel 66.4% against 87.5% implied by 1.07 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — -28.9% per £1 staked.
- Confidence 50/100, data depth 47/100Confidence is scored from the ball-by-ball history behind these teams, how settled the XI is and how many simulations agreed.
New Zealand to win
- Head-to-head: 0-0 in 3 stored T20I meetingsLOW sampleNew Zealand have won 0 of the 3 completed T20I matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 22 Oct 2026.New Zealand full record
- North Sydney Oval · T20I: 0.0% of matches won batting firstLOW sampleChasing sides have won 100.0% at this ground across 4 recorded matches, which is built into the simulated result.
- Projected runs: 137.1 vs 144.3The simulation gives New Zealand a -7.1 run expected margin over Australia, from 9,999 simulated innings.
- Model and market disagree too far to trustModel 30.3% against 12.5% implied by 7.50 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — +127.6% per £1 staked. A gap this size is more likely a data problem than an edge, so it is flagged rather than tipped.
Supremacy spread
Team runs projection
Australia
| 120+ | 77.9% |
| 140+ | 60.0% |
| 160+ | 36.1% |
| 180+ | 11.7% |
| 200+ | 1.7% |
New Zealand
| 120+ | 72.6% |
| 140+ | 51.6% |
| 160+ | 25.1% |
| 180+ | 5.0% |
| 200+ | 0.3% |
Australia runs
- 144.3 projected vs 156.0 parMEDIUM sampleNorth Sydney Oval · T20I averages 156.0 in the first innings over 4 matches; the model has Australia below that by 11.7 runs.
- Middle of the range 148.0, 10th–90th 100–182Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 4.4 wickets lost on average and 43.9 powerplay runs.
- 66% chance of rain at the startOvers lost would cut the total well below the projection; interruption risk scored at 66%.
- Dew likely (74%)Dew makes the ball skid on and favours the side batting second, so a first-innings total can be under-rewarded.
New Zealand runs
- 137.1 projected vs 156.0 parMEDIUM sampleNorth Sydney Oval · T20I averages 156.0 in the first innings over 4 matches; the model has New Zealand below that by 18.9 runs.
- Middle of the range 141.0, 10th–90th 96–172Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 5.4 wickets lost on average and 44.7 powerplay runs.
- 66% chance of rain at the startOvers lost would cut the total well below the projection; interruption risk scored at 66%.
- Dew likely (74%)Dew makes the ball skid on and favours the side batting second, so a first-innings total can be under-rewarded.
Player runs projection
Expected runs today, not a career average: each player's chance of batting, expected balls faced and the opposition attack are simulated together.
Australia | 35.8 | 32 | 76 | 97.0% | 29 | 61.3% | 33.6% | — | — |
New Zealand | 33.6 | 30 | 69 | 97.0% | 27 | 64.5% | 27.6% | — | — |
Australia | 32.9 | 23 | 80 | 97.0% | 23 | 54.1% | 28.3% | — | — |
Australia | 21.7 | 16 | 52 | 97.0% | 20 | 45.0% | 11.9% | — | — |
New Zealand | 19.2 | 12 | 52 | 80.0% | 18 | 38.6% | 11.1% | — | — |
New Zealand | 18.2 | 13 | 43 | 90.0% | 16 | 38.4% | 6.7% | — | — |
Australia | 17.9 | 11 | 49 | 79.0% | 18 | 36.3% | 9.5% | — | — |
New Zealand | 14.0 | 6 | 41 | 65.0% | 18 | 29.3% | 6.2% | — | — |
New Zealand | 13.3 | 6 | 40 | 69.0% | 17 | 25.6% | 5.9% | — | — |
New Zealand | 12.2 | 8 | 31 | 97.0% | 13 | 23.9% | 1.9% | — | — |
New Zealand | 11.7 | 7 | 32 | 97.0% | 13 | 24.3% | 1.9% | — | — |
Australia | 10.5 | 4 | 32 | 97.0% | 10 | 20.5% | 2.7% | — | — |
Australia | 10.4 | 1 | 35 | 68.0% | 14 | 21.6% | 3.9% | — | — |
New Zealand | 7.4 | 1 | 24 | 92.0% | 10 | 14.0% | 0.9% | — | — |
Australia | 4.3 | 0 | 15 | 85.0% | 7 | 6.7% | 0.4% | — | — |
New Zealand | 3.3 | 0 | 12 | 97.0% | 7 | 4.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
Australia | 3.2 | 0 | 11 | 36.0% | 11 | 6.1% | 1.0% | — | — |
Australia | 3.1 | 0 | 12 | 71.0% | 8 | 5.0% | 0.3% | — | — |
New Zealand | 2.6 | 0 | 10 | 67.0% | 7 | 3.3% | 0.1% | — | — |
Australia | 2.3 | 0 | 9 | 82.0% | 6 | 3.4% | 0.1% | — | — |
Australia | 1.9 | 0 | 7 | 86.0% | 8 | 2.5% | 0.0% | — | — |
New Zealand | 1.5 | 0 | 5 | 43.0% | 6 | 1.8% | 0.0% | — | — |
BL Mooney runs
- Expected to face 29 balls at number 2Opportunity drives the projection: 35.8 runs on average, 76 in the top 10% of simulations.
AC Kerr runs
- Expected to face 27 balls at number 3Opportunity drives the projection: 33.6 runs on average, 69 in the top 10% of simulations.
G Voll runs
- Expected to face 23 balls at number 1Opportunity drives the projection: 32.9 runs on average, 80 in the top 10% of simulations.
- Thin data (47/100)Not enough recorded balls behind this player in this format for a firm number.
EA Perry runs
- Expected to face 20 balls at number 4Opportunity drives the projection: 21.7 runs on average, 52 in the top 10% of simulations.
SFM Devine runs
- Expected to face 18 balls at number 6Opportunity drives the projection: 19.2 runs on average, 52 in the top 10% of simulations.
- Only 80% likely to playTaken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.
IC Gaze runs
- Expected to face 16 balls at number 1Opportunity drives the projection: 18.2 runs on average, 43 in the top 10% of simulations.
How these projections are built
The model simulates the match ball by ball from historical delivery data: expected line-ups and batting positions, opposition bowling attack, venue scoring and format baselines. Each figure is the output of those simulations, never an estimate written by hand. Track its settled record on the cricket model performance page, and see the live prices on the cricket betting hub.