New Zealand v India betting tips, prediction & odds
Twenty20 International · T20I · Tuesday 27 October at 07:00
Odds updated (UK time) · full refresh every day at 08:00, then hourly
Every number below comes from 7,477 ball-by-ball simulations of this match (model cricket-sim-1.0.0), run on real historical delivery data. Selections are not published as tips until the model passes backtesting.
Team news & expected XI
Official team sheets are used the moment they are published. Until then each XI is the model's own selection read: who this side has picked in this format, where they batted and how many overs they bowled. Form figures are exponentially weighted over the last year, so recent matches count for more.
New Zealand
No selection historyNo expected XI: we have no recorded selection history for this side in this format.
India
No selection historyNo expected XI: we have no recorded selection history for this side in this format.
Pitch & ground
Hnry Stadium, Wellington, New Zealand
T20 average across all grounds · comparable format
- Average 1st innings
- 147.7
- Average 2nd innings
- 126.2
- Runs per over
- 7.49
- Boundary balls
- 1422%
- Pace economy
- 7.80
- Spin economy
- 6.95
- Powerplay RPO
- 7.31
- Death RPO
- 8.62
- Chasing wins
- 4990%
- Batting first wins
- 5010%
- Matches counted
- 6582
Weather at the start
No forecast is available: a match needs a confirmed ground with coordinates and a start time inside the next two weeks.
What we could not source
- · New Zealand: we have no selection history for this side in T20I, so no expected XI is shown.
- · India: we have no selection history for this side in T20I, so no expected XI is shown.
- · No forecast is available for this ground yet.
- · Pitch numbers shown are the format-wide average because this ground has no stored record.
Every live spread market
The full set of Spreadex spread lines currently priced on this match, exactly as captured. Sell below the lower figure, buy above the higher one. Where the simulation covers a market we show its expected makeup beside the price, the side that implies and the edge in points per £1 a point — comparisons, not tips, until the format clears backtesting.
Odds updated (UK time) · captured hourly from the live market
Match Result
| New Zealand to win match | 40.2 | 45.7 | 41.2 | sell | -1.0 |
| India to win match | 54.3 | 59.8 | 58.0 | buy | -1.8 |
Supremacy
| India/New Zealand | 5 | 13 | 7.4 | sell | -2.4 |
More T20I spread markets across every priced match.
Model vs market
The simulation output next to the live bookmaker price on every market we hold a price for. Fixed-odds edges are expected value per £1 staked; spread edges are the expected points gained per £1 a point. Positive numbers are where the model disagrees with the price — they are comparisons, not published tips.
What does “coin flip” mean?
It is a deliberately simple test: give each team a 50% chance in every decided, two-team match, without looking at players, form or the pitch. It does not mean every real match is evenly matched, or that our model literally tosses a coin.
We score the probability given to the actual winner, not just count correct picks. Lower is better. Always saying 50/50 scores about 0.69. A model saying 80% when that team loses gets a bigger penalty than one saying 55%. “Not better than chance” means its tested winner probabilities have not improved on that simple starting point — they are not a proven betting edge.
This test excludes draws and ties; it is not a three-outcome Test-match benchmark. Beating it still does not prove profit: the offered odds, bookmaker margin and settled returns matter too. A confidence score of 80/100 is not an 80% chance of winning.
| Match result index | New Zealand to win match | 41.2 | 40.2 – 45.7 | sell | -1.0 pts |
| Match result index | India to win match | 58.0 | 54.3 – 59.8 | buy | -1.8 pts |
| Supremacy | India/New Zealand | 7.4 | 5 – 13 | sell | -2.4 runs |
| Match winner | India | 58.0% (1.73) | 1.67 | back | -3.4% EV |
| Match winner | New Zealand | 41.2% (2.43) | 2.20 | back | -9.4% EV |
Match winner projection
| New Zealand | 41.2% | 2.43 | 2.20 | 43.1% | -9.4% | 40.2 – 45.7 | 61/100 |
| India | 58.0% | 1.73 | 1.67 | 56.9% | -3.4% | 54.3 – 59.8 | 62/100 |
New Zealand to win
- Head-to-head: 0-0 in 3 stored T20I meetingsLOW sampleNew Zealand have won 0 of the 3 completed T20I matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 27 Oct 2026.New Zealand full record
- Projected runs: 140.7 vs 148.1The simulation gives New Zealand a -7.4 run expected margin over India, from 7,477 simulated innings.
- Price comparisonModel 41.2% against 43.1% implied by 2.20 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — -9.4% per £1 staked.
India to win
- Head-to-head: 0-0 in 3 stored T20I meetingsLOW sampleIndia have won 0 of the 3 completed T20I matches we hold between these sides, the most recent on 27 Oct 2026.India full record
- Projected runs: 148.1 vs 140.7The simulation gives India a +7.4 run expected margin over New Zealand, from 7,477 simulated innings.
- Price comparisonModel 58.0% against 56.9% implied by 1.67 with the bookmaker margin stripped out — -3.4% per £1 staked.
Supremacy spread
Team runs projection
New Zealand
| 120+ | 67.6% |
| 140+ | 51.5% |
| 160+ | 34.1% |
| 180+ | 20.6% |
| 200+ | 9.9% |
India
| 120+ | 71.7% |
| 140+ | 55.8% |
| 160+ | 38.8% |
| 180+ | 25.2% |
| 200+ | 15.4% |
New Zealand runs
- 140.7 projected vs 147.7 parLOW sampleT20 average across all grounds · comparable format averages 147.7 in the first innings over 6582 matches; the model has New Zealand below that by 7.0 runs.
- Middle of the range 141.0, 10th–90th 83–199Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 4.0 wickets lost on average and 59.0 powerplay runs.
India runs
- 148.1 projected vs 147.7 parLOW sampleT20 average across all grounds · comparable format averages 147.7 in the first innings over 6582 matches; the model has India above that by 0.4 runs.
- Middle of the range 147.0, 10th–90th 87–213Eight innings in ten finish inside that band, with 3.1 wickets lost on average and 72.6 powerplay runs.
Player runs projection
Expected runs today, not a career average: each player's chance of batting, expected balls faced and the opposition attack are simulated together.
India | 36.0 | 30 | 79 | 97.0% | 17 | 62.7% | 29.7% | — | — |
India | 29.6 | 24 | 69 | 97.0% | 18 | 55.7% | 22.1% | — | — |
India | 19.5 | 0 | 67 | 45.0% | 17 | 32.2% | 17.9% | — | — |
New Zealand | 18.8 | 7 | 58 | 57.0% | 17 | 34.4% | 13.5% | — | — |
New Zealand | 18.4 | 0 | 63 | 49.0% | 21 | 32.5% | 14.8% | — | — |
New Zealand | 16.7 | 0 | 59 | 46.0% | 21 | 29.0% | 13.1% | — | — |
India | 16.2 | 8 | 46 | 97.0% | 18 | 33.4% | 8.3% | — | — |
India | 16.1 | 0 | 57 | 44.0% | 20 | 28.2% | 12.9% | — | — |
New Zealand | 15.6 | 3 | 50 | 52.0% | 19 | 30.2% | 10.0% | — | — |
India | 15.0 | 2 | 48 | 67.0% | 17 | 29.1% | 9.5% | — | — |
New Zealand | 14.7 | 1 | 50 | 48.0% | 16 | 28.1% | 10.1% | — | — |
New Zealand | 12.9 | 0 | 46 | 48.0% | 19 | 25.7% | 8.5% | — | — |
New Zealand | 12.0 | 0 | 43 | 45.0% | 16 | 22.9% | 7.5% | — | — |
New Zealand | 11.8 | 0 | 40 | 63.0% | 15 | 24.3% | 6.0% | — | — |
New Zealand | 9.8 | 0 | 33 | 59.0% | 13 | 20.2% | 3.9% | — | — |
India | 9.6 | 0 | 33 | 91.0% | 14 | 19.6% | 4.1% | — | — |
New Zealand | 6.3 | 0 | 23 | 53.0% | 12 | 13.0% | 1.5% | — | — |
New Zealand | 3.7 | 0 | 15 | 44.0% | 11 | 7.0% | 0.3% | — | — |
India | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 68.0% | 10 | 6.0% | 0.4% | — | — |
India | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 42.0% | 11 | 2.7% | 0.2% | — | — |
India | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 72.0% | 8 | 1.0% | 0.0% | — | — |
India | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 42.0% | 11 | 1.5% | 0.2% | — | — |
Abhishek Sharma runs
- Expected to face 17 balls at number 3Opportunity drives the projection: 36.0 runs on average, 79 in the top 10% of simulations.
Ishan Kishan runs
- Expected to face 18 balls at number 4Opportunity drives the projection: 29.6 runs on average, 69 in the top 10% of simulations.
V Suryavanshi runs
- Expected to face 17 balls at number 1Opportunity drives the projection: 19.5 runs on average, 67 in the top 10% of simulations.
- Only 45% likely to playTaken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.
TB Robinson runs
- Expected to face 17 balls at number 7Opportunity drives the projection: 18.8 runs on average, 58 in the top 10% of simulations.
- Only 57% likely to playTaken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.
BJ Jacobs runs
- Expected to face 21 balls at number 11Opportunity drives the projection: 18.4 runs on average, 63 in the top 10% of simulations.
- Only 49% likely to playTaken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.
GD Phillips runs
- Expected to face 21 balls at number 9Opportunity drives the projection: 16.7 runs on average, 59 in the top 10% of simulations.
- Only 46% likely to playTaken from how often the player has been selected in this team's recent XIs; the projection is already scaled down for it.
How these projections are built
The model simulates the match ball by ball from historical delivery data: expected line-ups and batting positions, opposition bowling attack, venue scoring and format baselines. Each figure is the output of those simulations, never an estimate written by hand. Track its settled record on the cricket model performance page, and see the live prices on the cricket betting hub.